Chase Case #3

[Andrew Revering]

I spent a good chunk of the day putting this one together, and I know we have Case #2 going on concurrently, but I've got so many maps that I thought we could take this one slower and let people feast on it while they work on the other one.

I've got groups of data that I'll release:
12z Observations & Model Forecasts for 00z = Available Now
15z = I'll release it Friday around Noon
18z = I'll release it Friday around 6pm
21z = I'll release it Saturday Late Morning
00z = I'll release it Saturday Night
Storm Report (Results) = I'll release it on Sunday

So here we go!

12z 250mb Observation

12z 300mb Observation

12z 500mb Observation

12z 700mb Observation

12z 850mb Observation

12z 925mb Observation

12z CAPE/CIN

12z Infrared Satellite

12z Lapse Rates

12z Radar

12z Surface

12z Shear

12z Vorticity

13z Profiler

***************MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID @ 00z*********************

00z Pressure

00z Temperatures

00z Dew Points

00z Surface Theta-E

00z Surface Based CAPE

00z Mixed Layer CAPE

00z Surface Based CIN

00z Mixed Layer CIN

00z 850mb Temperatures

00z 700mb Temperatures

00z 850mb Dew Point

00z 850mb Wind Speeds

00z 500mb Temperatures

00z 500mb Wind Speeds

00z 6km Deep Layer Shear

00z 3km MLCAPE

00z 3km Helicity

00z 2km Lapse Rates

00z 1km VGP

Place your bets!

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I see this just went up--so I am putting out my first thoughts based on a quick scan. I believe I am going to head for Altus, Ok and see how things go.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

Lots of great maps! I'm starting in Wichita, KS. I'm ready to make a move into OK if I need to. Wow, how about the winds both upper level and surface. And I do like the moisture transport from the south. Something big is going up and I'll be ready for this one to come to me!

 

[Adam Lucio]

Hmmm I see a northern target area and a southern one.

Due to local bias I would pick the northern target, but an occluding low and the thought of veering winds [not to mention largely unidirectional at this time]would deter me. Although there is some decent turning in the lower levels. Id probably sit at home and wait for the latest runs before deciding if I want to play the northern target...NC Iowa...or head down to the southern target and go for NC Oklahoma.

Of course if this were the start of a multiple day chasecation in the plains [or a weekend] I would take that...but Ill assume this to be a 1 day event.

Still sitting at home...waiting for updates.

EDIT: On second thought, im always too antsy so Im going to leave and hangout in Walcott, IA at the Iowa 80 truck stop and wait for updates there. Nice large cafe with a wendys.

 

[Danny Neal]

Well since I am starting in Chicago, I might as well play the northern target even though my heart is down south lol. That being said I am on the road for Des Moines, Iowa. Can be in Iowa City in time for the 15Z outlook. I can't ignore the divergence going on in Northern Iowa per the 250 MB and 300's. With a warm front also laying accross Southern Minnesota. SW winds in the lower levels with a SSE surface wind does grab my attention but with an occluding low I fear veering winds and a largely unidirectional mess is on tap. I am so-so on the early morning convection as it may keep down instability (there is marginal CAPE as is) but it MAY lay down and outflow boundary and wreak some havoc along and south of the warm front. Id like to see Temps and Dews raise another 10 degrees each but now I am getting greedy. Not to much of a convective inhibition and still pretty cold 700 MB's so I fear it may be "when one goes they all go" type scenario...... Certainly something to ponder as I am driving west on I 80 lol. Like on November 5th of 08 though.......Can still make it to SE KS by 2 PM

 

[Chris Lott]

I'm going to start in Woodward,OK and wait for the next update.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm flying towards Mankato, MN

 

[Paul Austin]

Always a concern for a cap bust further south, especially with the morning cloud cover. But I don't like the cooler surface temps SE of the northern target and the potential for a mess of rapid moving storms. I'll take a chance on possible slower moving storms along a TX/OK dryline, even with weaker upper air support. I'm gonna park my chasemobile near Clinton, OK and wait for further data to adjust N or S.

 

[scott r currens]

I'll go with the cold-core target and head to Summit, SD.

 

[Darin Brunin]

I think I'll start out in Wahpeton, ND.

Edit: Lol Scott...As I was just looking at the data I was wondering which city you were going to pick in that area. Come to ND and see a tornado with me ;-)

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm stimulating the local economy of Ortonville, MN, due west of MSP right on the SD border waiting for initiation. Looking at IR, there was a strong mid-level dry punch that mixed out the low clouds behind the overnight convection. I would expect to top the 65 degrees that is progged. This area has a great thermodynamic profile that isn't shown well with the forecast CAPE because of the low surface moisture. I'm banking on an intense string-of-pearls developing shortly before 0z as lift is enhanced in this left-front region of the 500mb jet streak.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Well this time Im up in the area already so sticking with the northern target of course, heading for Nicollet, MN and will re-position from there.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting in Ft.Dodge,Ia along the cold front, even if I see a possibility of a cold core setup in the Dakotas.

 

[Darren Addy]

I don't mind telling you that this one confuses the heck out of me. I guess I'm liking the winds in NE Kansas and hoping that the tongue of the moisture return will be there by showtime. I may be in no-man's land with no surface lows or fronts in the vicinity, but I'm hoping that I'll get lift from the big divergence at the 300mb level there. I'll take Hiawatha, KS for now but I may be making a BIG adjustment later, if there is time.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like I will position myself in the Sioux City area and make some later day adjustments from there. First wave roaring through this morning so should have some good clearing behind it with some pretty cold temps. at 500mb ...ie some good steep lapse rates later in the afternoon.