Chase Case #15

[Paul Austin]

Thanks, Bob. I was surprised so few of the participants knew or remembered the date. Probably few chased it in real life with such low dews and the expected big day on the way, but it was a mod risk on a Saturday. I figured the low Tds and that cirrus cloud wall might jog a memory or two, especially for anyone who actually chased it. I thought the eastern flank of the cirrus deck had a swept-out look for several hours from TX all the way up to ND that would seem to be very recognizable by anyone who followed it originally. Hopefully those of you who chased and busted in real life had a big day on the 4th to make up for it. And if any of you chased this day and scored, bravo! I'd love to see your pics.

 

[Bob Gould]

Paul, Thanks for putting this together. A very well managed virtual chase. Even though I busted I learned alot about decision making and data interpretation.

Once again, Thanks for the time and effort you put into this!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Chased this day...waited forever for things to go and blew a radiator hose in no-mans land Donley Co. right as the storm started to fire. Rich and I did get a very nice western diamondback rattler crossing the road...while the van gushed out anti-freeze and the supercell blossomed and split to our east. Got the heater hose fixed, drove all night... and the next day was JACKPOT !!

A couple of pics to sum up this day:

Looking east from Clarendon TX where van was being repaired (thankfully)​

 

[Paul Townsend]

Too tired to say much. Nailed a few tornadoes; a couple beauties. Long day of driving from Norman to Woodward to Shamrock to Guthrie area to following the beast for a few hours. Exhausted. But I am going to still drive to Ardmore, if I can make it, to position for tomorrow's action.

Thanks for the chase case, Paul. These scenarios are just what I need to increase and cement my upslope and dryline Plains/High Plains event confidence.

 

[Tim Jones]

May 3, 2003

I chased this day in the Nebraska Panhandle and witnessed a few dust devils and one very nice tornado. As I recall, we caught these cells after heading north out of NE CO. In fact, our sensors were reading somewhere in the 52/47 range- meager, but adequate moisture for tornado production in upslope flow regime.

Here's a few pics:

 

[Jason Branz]

Great case...even if I had chased this one in real life I'd still have ended up between storms. This was a great example of delayed moisture return, but the upslope flow compensated for that up north. Thanks for this one Paul!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

This was a very difficult and interesting chase case: despite the temptation to remain in Ks I did choose to move to Nebraska. I couldn't imagine that with these crappy low dews a tornado would have been forming. I counted at least 9 tornado in Ne, in addiction with a low precipitation stage of the supercell.
Thanks Paul!!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I chased this day in the Nebraska Panhandle and witnessed a few dust devils and one very nice tornado. As I recall, we caught these cells after heading north out of NE CO. In fact, our sensors were reading somewhere in the 52/47 range- meager, but adequate moisture for tornado production in upslope flow regime.

Here's a few pics:

Nice Job,Tim. I tried to look for some pictures of this tornado on the web but I couldn't find anything. Could you post some more images of the tube?

 

[Dennis Dennison]

100 miles away--well as i was to the rear--I have to tell mysle i might have made move in the right direction had i been there for real

 

[Tim Jones]

Nice Job,Tim. I tried to look for some pictures of this tornado on the web but I couldn't find anything. Could you post some more images of the tube?

Andrea,

I only have a few video captures on this computer, but here's a few more for you. Enjoy......

 

[Wes Carter]

Thanks for the scenario! As a relatively new chaser and one who is more familiar with Dixie Alley events this was an eye opener. This was the first one I actually participated in online, however I have been participating in these without posting (just lurking). I thought that I wouldn't post until I became more comfortable but then after #14 I realized I'm never going to be comfortable, I just have to jump in and give it a whirl. Luckily, this is the one I did the best on of any.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Days behind on this thread, so going to play catch up starting at 19z and post updates. Keeping it honest and have not looked ahead

19z Update: At 18z, I was heading to Oakley KS, but based on conditions and then the subsequent MD, continued west in a hurry to Burlington CO and then blasting north on hwy 385 in an attempt to make Holyoke CO by 21Z. I have a bad feeling I am going to be late for the show. To add insult to injury, I've been on the road all day when I could have just stayed home, slept in, and had an easy drive to NE panhandle, DOH!

2130Z: Made Holyoke CO, continueing to Ogallale, NE and will be there by 2230z.

2230z: Made Ogallala, NE.

23z: Heading NW on hwy 26 towards Oshkosh, painfully late for the show.

0z - 1z: Yup, to late! Got a few lightning pics and some small hail. The saving grace is that I've got less than 3hrs to make it home, lick my wounds, and sleep in my own bed.

Great case Paul!!!!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Andrea,

I only have a few video captures on this computer, but here's a few more for you. Enjoy......

Thanks, Tim, it's just the type of tornado I was trying to imagine with those low dews. Very nice pics!

 

[Matt Gingery]

Hey Andrea, amazingly as this sounds, a similar situation is forecast for W Texas on Sunday. I know this isn't related to this case, but there is a shot for tornadoes with temps in the high 50's to low 60's and dews in the high 40's to low 50's.

I quit chasing this case at 0Z, do to the fact that much of the action in SD has become multicellular and lining out. I may have intercepted across the state, and maybe on my drive back south on I-29 to KC I will see some action. I am headed home. . .

P.S. I am 50/50 on going to Plainview area on Sunday. If the synopsis looks good tomorrow, I will head out early Sunday and be in Amarillo by 2-3 p.m.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Hey Andrea, amazingly as this sounds, a similar situation is forecast for W Texas on Sunday. I know this isn't related to this case, but there is a shot for tornadoes with temps in the high 50's to low 60's and dews in the high 40's to low 50's.

I quit chasing this case at 0Z, do to the fact that much of the action in SD has become multicellular and lining out. I may have intercepted across the state, and maybe on my drive back south on I-29 to KC I will see some action. I am headed home. . .

P.S. I am 50/50 on going to Plainview area on Sunday. If the synopsis looks good tomorrow, I will head out early Sunday and be in Amarillo by 2-3 p.m.

Yes,Matt, some things remind me this case; if you have some free time to spend on Sunday it would be a nice chasing day preparatory to the chasing season 2009. You could test Wx and every kinda softwere you have.
I see a nice dry line so far in East NM with very strong convergence. Too bad for the very low dews in the low 50's. Mid level flow is very strong and quite normal to the dry line orientation; we have a very strong low level jet as well. I have a little suspect that the total shear could be too strong in comparison with the convective available energy in one ideal updraft, that could be breaking the rising towers. At any rate I would try, if I were in you: moreover it's always good to see those places.
Take a look at tomorrow too.