Chase Case #15

[Paul Austin]

I'm going to start this case off with pre-Chase Day info, so you can position for the day's events. Assume you are off work or that it is a weekend, so no one has to drive 12+ hours to get in position on this one. Pick a staging location to spend the night, and tomorrow, I'll release the Chase Day 12z data.

Again, this is all data from 12/24 hrs ahead of the chase day (except the 3rd day outlook, which would be two days ahead of the event).

SPC 3rd Day Convective Outlook (two days prior to chase day)


12Z Observations 24 hrs Pre-Chase Day:

Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

0Z Observations 12 hrs Pre-Chase Day:

Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

Surface Analysis:
National

Soundings:
Amarillo, TX
Midland, TX
Fort Worth, TX
Norman, OK
Springfield, MO
Little Rock, AR
Birmingham, AL
Nashville, TN
Wilmington, OH
Lincoln, IL
Chanhassen, MN
Rapid City, SD
Aberdeen, SD
Denver, CO
North Platte, NE
Omaha, NE
Dodge City, KS
Topeka, KS

IR Satellite Imagery:
National


I'll post 12z data tomorrow afternoon or early evening and progress with major 3 hr updates daily. I might hold off Sunday for the Super Bowl and continue early next week in an effort to involve as many participants as possible. Happy Chasing!

Chase Positioning Map

EDIT: Do feel free to create a wayfaring account and add yourself to the map. It's pretty easy and saves me some time on updates. All you have to do is click the Log In button in the upper right corner of the Chase Map page and choose Sign Up. You'll be able to edit your own wayfaring marker (and disallow anyone else control), and even create your own maps. To edit your own marker, log in (upper right corner) and choose Edit Map. Then just click on your own marker to select it, click the Location tab, and type a new location or click the map. Make sure you click Done at the bottom and Save Map when you are finished. You might have to refresh the page to see the changes, but it's not a difficult process. It's just time-consuming for one person update.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I might as well dive in and pick Emporia-Bartlesville. If nothing else I can take oil well photos

 

[Wes Carter]

I'm still new at this predicting stuff so I might be way off base here but I'm looking at camping out in Memphis, TN. The cape values are pretty good from central Texas over through the mid-south ahead of the stationary front. I'm interested in seeing this more over time.

Also, I'm watching that bulge int he stationary front at the TX-OK border. I'm wondering if it will develop into a cold front to the west. For that reason I'm wanting to stay close enough to drive to the TX-LA border.

I may be way off, but heck, I'm not burning any gas on this one.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

WOODWARD, OKLAHOMA is where I will start

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I will stay at home until tomorrow's 12z data to decide a target.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Spending the night in Salina, we'll see how things look at 12z.

 

[Josh Richardson]

EDIT: Do feel free to create a wayfaring account and add yourself to the map. It's pretty easy and saves me some time on updates. All you have to do is click the Log In button in the upper right corner of the Chase Map page and choose Sign Up. You'll be able to edit your own wayfaring marker (and disallow anyone else control), and even create your own maps. To edit your own marker, log in (upper right corner) and choose Edit Map. Then just click on your own marker to select it, click the Location tab, and type a new location or click the map. Make sure you click Done at the bottom and Save Map when you are finished. You might have to refresh the page to see the changes, but it's not a difficult process. It's just time-consuming for one person update.

Unless I'm missing something here I only see my marker again after I hit edit map. When I leave and comeback and click on your link I'm not there again. Not sure whats going on, its not like this is a difficult process but I must be missing something here, lol.

 

[John Erwin]

I'm going to start in McPherson, KS for this one. Too early to worry about a precise location yet but it would appear this could be a decent launching point.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Sitting here in Ok City, hangin on for 12Z run. In the meanwhile I will rent a new van for me and my friends.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Wichita, KS, for me. Is there a good brewpub around here?

 

[Patrick Martin]

Wichita, KS, for me. Is there a good brewpub around here?

Wichita, KS for me as well. I'll join you for dinner and a good quality brew.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Unless I'm missing something here I only see my marker again after I hit edit map. When I leave and comeback and click on your link I'm not there again. Not sure whats going on, its not like this is a difficult process but I must be missing something here, lol.

For some reason its working now, at least I think so. Nobody else is on the map though other than myself and the icon Paul Austin created.

 

[Jason Branz]

I like the 500mb flow over SC KS and OK, and I'm expecting that boundary to lift northward throughout the day, so we're not going too far north. I want to be on the western edge of that 850mb moisture push, so we'll start in Woodward, OK.

 

[David Wolfson]

Looks like a return flow case, with cyclogenesis somewhere in west Texas. The only clue from the charts and the zonal flow is there seems to be some splitting of the upper levels and a subtle short wave coming out of the southwest. With this kind of flow I don't see the moisture as making rapid northward progress, and there's no LLJ to speed things along.

I put in a long day's drive and have to be up for the 12Z data, so I'm going to bed in Big Spring, TX.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Based on what I see on the data - my initial target for this one will be: Pratte, KS