Wow, I was actually pretty close!
![Big Grin :D :D](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
I am curious, for those that targeted the same area but didn't post their reasoning, what led you to that target? Here's what I noticed about the scenario that guided me to that area:
What appeared to be an upper-level trof over KS at 12Z made me initially think wrn MO, but I should've considered that trof would move quite a bit between 12Z and the event. I actually set up a little further east than I originally would have because of the cloud cover advecting into wrn MO.
Based on 1630Z data I blasted south/east to stay ahead of the trof/front, targeting the area of Texas County, MO planning to be able to move in any direction necessary from there.
Here's what I liked about SE MO:
>backing surface winds
>low LCLs (small t/td spread)
>dynamite helicity per 12Z data
>presence of the warm front
Are these the same things others picked up on, or were there others?
In practice, I probably still would have missed the storm that day anyway being still a little behind the action and with the terrain as John said.