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Chase Case #1 2011

Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
20
Location
Springfield, Missouri
I have removed earlier information to consolidate this post a bit more manageable in size. I have the other info saved to a word document and can repost, or PM to anyone jumping in late that may need it. Tomorrow we will be wrapping up Chase Case 1. I appreciate the participation as well as the kind words from all. Any data not posted that you may need feel free to drop me a PM and I will accommodate.

**18 Z Sounding And Supplemental Update**

Sounding and Hodograph

Amarillo Special Sounding: http://i40.tinypic.com/117gwee.gif

18 UTC Visible Satellite

Midwest: http://i41.tinypic.com/b4x446.jpg

Southern Plains: http://i41.tinypic.com/maknet.jpg

18 UTC Surface Analysis

Midwest: http://i40.tinypic.com/fjdeg4.gif

Southern Plains: http://i44.tinypic.com/2wlzqx4.gif

18 UTC Radar Composites

Midwest: http://i40.tinypic.com/2a8mbew.gif

Southern Plains: http://i44.tinypic.com/w2g679.gif

Wind Profiler 17 UTC: http://i42.tinypic.com/v9z4o.jpg

18 UTC MESO Discussion

MD Colorado/Kansas: http://i42.tinypic.com/mcw1hv.jpg

Meso-Discussion Text 18Z:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 18 UTC Outlook

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO
INTO WRN KS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN CLOUD-FREE
UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE
REACHED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN CO. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NW OF TAD...EWD TO NEAR LAA.
IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO
SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LOW CLOUD BASES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

**19 UTC Immediate and Urgent Broadcast Tornado Watch**

Tornado Watch Colorado/Kansas: http://i40.tinypic.com/24npllh.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
AKRON COLORADO TO 30 MILES EAST OF ELKHART KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE

Tornadic activity has been ongoing in Colorado from 19Z through 20Z as a cyclic supercell produces multiple tornadoes through Bent and Kiowa Counties. This is a dangerous situation. Stay tuned for the 20 UTC update coming soon. . .

__________________________________________________________________________

20 UTC Supplemental Update

20 UTC Visible Satellite:

Midwest: http://i42.tinypic.com/2h6skjt.jpg

Southern Plains: http://i43.tinypic.com/244y23c.jpg

20 UTC Radar Composite

Midwest: http://i41.tinypic.com/2142ivr.gif

Southern Plains: http://i43.tinypic.com/141t8if.gif

20 UTC SFC Analysis

Midwest: http://i40.tinypic.com/2u5q3x5.gif

Southern Plains:http://i41.tinypic.com/10er0io.gif

SPC Outlooks, Analysis, and Discussions at 20 UTC

20 UTC SPC Outlook Upgrade: http://i41.tinypic.com/vrewxy.gif

SPC Discussion:

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SW KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...MODERATE RISK ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
AND SW KS

...SRN PLAINS...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ENEWD
INTO WRN OK. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES FOCUSED IN WRN OK. AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BECOME TORNADIC AND A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A MODERATE
RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
AND SW KS. THE LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN UPGRADED
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTHWEST IN WRN KS AND
ERN CO...THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO AND SIGTOR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED TO THE NORTHWEST TO CATCH AREAS NORTH OF LAMAR CO. IN
ADDITION...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NE CO HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO
INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER WHERE A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING


********MD Colorado/Kansas*********

MD: http://i43.tinypic.com/2lc1ma.gif

Forecast Discussion Regarding MD for Colorado and Kansas as of 19-20 UTC


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH...

VALID

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES. Numerous supercells have produced tornadoes, one in particular has produced a long track tornado through Bent County, Co. and into Kiowa County, CO. This is a dangerous cyclic cell.

NUMEROUS SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET...AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...LOW CLOUD BASES WITHIN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. ONE
PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
KIOWA COUNTY CO. THIS STORM HAS EDGED INTO WRN PLUME OF GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COULD MAINTAIN TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS
FOR SOME TIME...ESPECIALLY IF STORM MERGERS DO NOT INTERRUPT IT/S
INFLOW.

As of 19 UTC a relatively widespread Cu field has erupted along the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle with some cells firing to the NW of AMA up into the Oklahoma Panhandle into SW Kansas. These cells appear to be a bit elevated, but should become more sfc based as the day progresses. The tornado threat is increasing across this region from 19z through the rest of the evening including W. Oklahoma.

*********20 UTC MD Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle Regions**********

MD: http://i41.tinypic.com/vdk01y.gif

Text:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH A SFC DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
DUMAS-WILDORADO-SUDAN LINE AS OF 19Z. MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL TX/OK PANHANDLES...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 18Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
HR. DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
MOIST SECTOR WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARDS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASED DRYLINE CONVERGENCE.

INITIAL THREAT WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE
TO MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE.


_____________________________________________________________________________________


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Tornado Watch: http://i40.tinypic.com/b5ld1v.gif


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR


Severe Weather Reports Through 20 UTC. Still early, but reports are coming in.

Tornadoes: Kiowa and Bent County, Colorado (Those in the vicinity of La Junta and Lamar, Co. off Hwy 50 south of Kit Carson would have scored)

Hail: Golf Ball sized hail in Bent, and Kiowa County Colorado. Golf Ball Size Hail in Greely County, Co. near Tribune, Ks.

Wind Reports: Butler County, Ks 70 mph wind gust



***21Z Update***

Visible Satellite:

Midwest: http://i43.tinypic.com/i3geok.jpg

Southern Plains: http://i43.tinypic.com/2r4o934.jpg


Radar Composite:

Midwest: http://i41.tinypic.com/110humf.gif

Southern Plains: http://i42.tinypic.com/1zqy1rc.gif

Surface Analysis

Midwest: http://i44.tinypic.com/1zc0odj.gif

Southern Plains: http://i41.tinypic.com/5zfmmw.gif

SPC Outlooks/MD's/Watches

MD Missouri/Kansas/N Oklahoma: http://i42.tinypic.com/ip8jgx.gif

MD Text:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS TO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID

ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SWRN MO
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF FAR NRN OK.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO W/SWWD INTO ERN KS...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
IN ERN/SERN KS. THE COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WWD THROUGH FAR SRN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN
CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRIMARILY WEAK WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
KS/WRN-SWRN MO...STRONG WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS
WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER SGF VWP AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MO.

FARTHER W...INSTABILITY IS GREATER GIVEN GREATER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS/. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
NM/TX BORDER REGION INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING
STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.


Reports through 22 UTC:

Tornado Reports Through 22z:

Kiowa, Elbert, and Adams County Colorado. Eads, Deer Trail, and Leader Co.

Kearney Ks. Report of a 1 mile wide wedge tornado on the ground near Kendall Ks at 2140 UTC

2159z Stove Pipe tornado reported crossing HWY in Armstrong County, Tx SE of AMA

Hail Reports Through 22Z:

Tennis Ball Hail near Gruver, Tx at 2047z, Baseball Hail near Spearman, Tx 2133z, Baseball Hail near Lakin, KS at 22z.


***23Z Final Update***

Visible Satellite:

Midwest: http://i44.tinypic.com/nygz9c.jpg

Southern Plains: http://i42.tinypic.com/5ur1ph.jpg

Radar Composite

Midwest: http://i44.tinypic.com/262my4x.gif

Southern Plains: http://i44.tinypic.com/2ytyyjo.gif

Mesoscale Discussion

MD 23 UTC: http://i41.tinypic.com/fjn6ty.gif

Text:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...AND SWD TO WEST
CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH...

VALID

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES.

AN INCREASE IN MDT CU/CBS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH MUCH
OF W TX /VICINITY OF MAF/ SINCE 21Z IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONG
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF 70-85 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS JET IS NOW MOVING
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SWRN U.S. CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WW 75
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 50+ KT WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG/ ALONG AND E OF THE
DRY LINE.

A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 75 IN THE MAF
VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER S...WHERE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED
AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT SINCE 2145Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF A STRENGTHENING DRY LINE BENEATH
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD INTO MUCH OF W TX AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SW TX /AROUND
MAF/ AND AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO
AID IN BACKED S/SELY WINDS ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE IN RESPONSE
TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER DAWSON TO MIDLAND COUNTIES TX WILL TRACK NNEWD
INTO SRN EXTENT OF WW . IF OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A GREATER SWD
DEVELOPMENT...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE NEEDED.


***0z Final Chase Results and SPC Reports for April 22, 2010***

qye4qg.png





Text Reports:


1908 6 SE LAS ANIMAS BENT CO 3801 10315 CORRECTED TIME OF TOUCHDOWN 108 PM MDT. (PUB)

1910 4 ENE LAS ANIMAS BENT CO 3809 10316 CONDENSATION CONE ON GROUND. (PUB)

1913 6 SE LAS ANIMAS BENT CO 3801 10315 (PUB)

1915 5 WSW LAS ANIMAS BENT CO 3803 10330 (PUB)

1948 7 NNW HASTY BENT CO 3821 10299 (PUB)

2032 7 W SWEETWATER RESERVOI KIOWA CO 3836 10288 (PUB)

2047 5 SW EADS KIOWA CO 3844 10285 (PUB)

2054 2 W EADS KIOWA CO 3848 10282 NEAR COUNTY ROAD 36 CROSSING HIGHWAY 96 MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. (PUB)

2128 9 SW DEER TRAIL ELBERT CO 3952 10416 (BOU)

2138 1 W LEADER ADAMS CO 3990 10408 (BOU)

2140 7 ESE KENDALL KEARNY KS 3791 10142 THE PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO WAS 1 MILE WIDE. (DDC)

2159 5 NE GOODNIGHT ARMSTRONG TX 3509 10112 ON THE THE GROUND FOR 3 MINUTES (AMA)

2210 8 ESE GROOM DONLEY TX 3516 10098 TORNADO BEGAN 4 MILES SE OF GROOM AND ENDED ABOUT 2 MILES ESE OF JERICHO (AMA)

2210 2 SW LAKIN KEARNY KS 3792 10128 (DDC)

2220 3 NE GOODNIGHT ARMSTRONG TX 3507 10115 TORNADO BEGAN 3 MILES S OF GOODNIGHT AND ENDED ABOUT 8 MILES NE OF GOODNIGHT. TORNADO REPORTED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES. (AMA)

2224 5 NE KIT CARSON CHEYENNE CO 3881 10273 PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND LASTED 3 TO 4 MINUTES. TORNADO ROPING OUT. (GLD)

2238 1 E LAKE MCCLELLAN GRAY TX 3522 10085 TORNADO BEGAN 1 MILE E OF LAKE MECCLELLAN AND MOVED NE FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF MILE. (AMA)

2239 6 NW DEERFIELD KEARNY KS 3804 10121 (DDC)

2240 2 SW KIT CARSON CHEYENNE CO 3874 10282 LASTED 5 MINUTES (GLD)

2251 8 S BRYANS CORNER BEAVER OK 3650 10082 TORNADO BEGAN 8 MILES S OF BRYANS CORNER AND REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY ONE MINUTE. (AMA)

2253 2 W KIT CARSON CHEYENNE CO 3876 10283 LASTED 3 MINUTES (GLD)

2307 8 ESE GROOM DONLEY TX 3516 10098 TORNADO BAGAN 8 MILES ESE OF GROOM AND MOVED NE FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF MILE. (AMA)

2309 8 WNW FIRSTVIEW CHEYENNE CO 3886 10268 RAIN WRAPPED (GLD)

2311 10 WSW FRIEND FINNEY KS 3822 10109 (DDC)

2313 9 SSW FRIEND FINNEY KS 3814 10099 STOVEPIPE TORNADO. (DDC)

2322 8 W FRIEND FINNEY KS 3824 10106 LARGE TORNADO WITH POSSIBLE SATELLITE TORNADO. (DDC)

2326 6 W FRIEND SCOTT KS 3826 10102 WEDGE TORNADO. (DDC)

2330 5 NW ALANREED GRAY TX 3526 10080 LARGE INTENSE CIRCULATION... APPROXIMATELY ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WIDE... WITH SEVERAL BRIEF MULTI VORTEX STYLE TOUCHDOWNS. TORNADO BEGAN 1 MILE NORTH OF LAKE MCCLELLAN (AMA)

2332 8 WSW SHALLOW WATER SCOTT KS 3831 10104 STORM CHASER REPORTED RAIN WRAPPED WEDGE TORNADO. (DDC)

2340 13 ENE LEFORS GRAY TX 3551 10059 TORNADO BEGAN 11 MILES ENE OF LEFORS AND ENDED APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES WSW OF MOBEETIE. (AMA)

2344 14 NW DEERFIELD KEARNY KS 3814 10128 STOVEPIPE TORNADO. (DDC)

2352 12 N FIRSTVIEW CHEYENNE CO 3900 10254 TORNADO ON NORTH SIDE OFINTERSECTIO OF COUNTY ROAD DD AND COUNTY ROAD 34 MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. (GLD)

0005 14 NNE FIRSTVIEW CHEYENNE CO 3902 10246 TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 4 TO 5 MINUTES THEN ROPED OUT. (GLD)

0010 4 S SCOTT CITY SCOTT KS 3842 10091 GRAIN BINS DAMAGED WITH TWO TOTALLY DESTROYED. BARN PARTIALLY COLLAPSED WITH PART OF ROOF TORN OFF. TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN TO THE RESIDENCE. (DDC)

0038 8 SW CEE VEE MOTLEY TX 3415 10054 NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO - MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH (LUB)
0133 4 SSE CEE VEE COTTLE TX 3418 10041 SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE WEDGE TORNADO. SPOTTER IS 2 MILES WEST WNW OF CEE VEE (LUB)
0205 6 W SWEARINGEN COTTLE TX 3415 10025 STARTED AT 905 PM. LIFTED BRIEFLY. BUT STILL ON THE GROUND AT 911 PM. (LUB)

0221 13 SE GOVE GOVE KS 3882 10033 SHERRIFF REPORTED BRIEF TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD I AND COUNTY ROAD 62. (GLD)

0225 2 NW SWEARINGEN COTTLE TX 3417 10017 (LUB)

0235 1 N SWEARINGEN COTTLE TX 3416 10015 REPORTED BY PADUCAH FIRE DEPARTMENT.


April 22, 2010 Tornado Outbreak Info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2010_tornado_outbreak

My encounter with my first tornado of the 2010 season, and a top 5 chase, and one of my most memorable:

Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt0FaTTVVYE
 
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I've decided to head south out of Denver toward the TX Pan. Moisture advection is already underway with upper 40's/low 50's dews living across most of the southern plains. As the cold front moves in and the dryline sharpens up later, target refinement should be easier to determine. Will that trough take on a positive or negative tilt once it arrives? I will setup for now in Amarillo, TX and await further updates as I'm not convinced the action won't be further W than the initial SPC hatched area shows.

Thanks Matt for doing one of these again!
 
Matt, thanks very much for posting this!

I'd be hitting the NAM and GFS pretty hard looking at the range of possibilities for positioning on Day 3. I'd plan to leave Flagstaff early on Day 2 headed for Elk City, OK. Along the way, I'll see how the Day 2 updates look and whether I need to re-adjust.
 
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I will sit in Woodward, OK by day 2 and wait and see how this trough ejects over the Rockies. Looks like it has a very impressive jet with it!
 
Coming from ways to the north I would make a target for Dodge City, KS right now. Likely playing the northern end of the event. There is something about the triple point type set up that I lean towards. Hopefully to be there on day 2 and keep an eye on how the system comes in.
 
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I'll sit in Norman for a couple of days. No need to leave yet!

EDIT: Crap, I knew I recognized the day. Guess I better back out. I know this day was a lot of fun in real life, at least for me!
 
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Think I'll relax at home in Amarillo, TX until the actual day comes. A preliminary target will come the night before the day, then again the morning of. Anyone heading to AMA is welcomed to crash on my couch for free :p
 
I was eyeballing southwest KS initially, but the dews are pretty modest across the region, and even out in the gulf. Early season setup? There's no low level jet yet to get the moisture really moving despite some SSE surface winds, but I'm sure that will turn about when that trough arrives. This might be more of a TX play. If we can get those low 60's dews over the gulf up and over the Caprock, its game on. I'm going to sit tight in Chicago now for now and wait for the Day 2 update to narrow on the part of the region, but I'd probably be looking at Lubbock, TX. Again, however, I really can't narrow it down from the day 3 UA charts and surface map so I'm going to hold tight and leave tomorrow. I've got time to make it down there anyway.
 
No need to hurry, since the wave is still well offshore. It looks to be digging southward and, what with the early season moisture still stuck near the GoM, leaving "tomorrow" is plenty early enough.
 
A note for you, Matt (and anyone else who makes a chase case). I suggest adding all updates to the first post of the thread instead of posting updates later on in the thread. Posting everything in the first post makes it much easier for anyone coming in late or those reading these posthumously to see everything rather than have to search through pages of "I'm going to city XXXXXXX" posts to find the next update.

It's a little hard to pick out one specific city 3 days out, especially when we have no forecast data (other than an SPC convective outlook and climatology or guesswork). In real life I would sit at home and watch model forecasts until the night before and make a preliminary decision. Therefore I'm sitting at home in Norman.

As far as the scenario goes, this looks to be an early season event given the rather low temps at all levels across the CONUS. I can only assume from climatology, then, that somewhere across the southern Plains is going to end up under the gun sometime soon. I will continue to watch as the synoptic scale evolves over the next few days.
 
I drive from MN to get to OK targets on the same day, so I'm not rushing anywhere. I'll start in Minneapolis, MN just to make it realistic.

edit: I recognize the day now, so I'm sitting this one out.
 
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