Central IN/OH Snow 2/5/10

[A Newcomb]

Winter Storm Watches stretch from the IL/IN border to far western Pennsylvania, and also along the Appalachians.

Current forecasts show the system beginning to affect the Indy area around 7am on Friday, with mixed precip likely at the onset, especially towards the south. Storm totals of 5-7" look likely across central Indiana.

There hasn't yet been a real winter storm here in Indy this year, despite areas such as OK and TX that seem to be getting feet of snow...
The most I recall this year is 4.5", with numerous snow shower/lake effect events that put down an inch or so.


Will post local updates and hopefully pictures later on.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Been watching this system closely. Down here in southern Ohio everything seems to go north or south of us... It looks like this system could easily do that again with us being so close to the freezing line again. If we can cut back on the rainfall we could see 6+ easily here, but that would be a surprise. Hopefully CAA kicks in earlier than expected and the rainfall is minimal. I should have a write up completed by tomorrow on the storm system and I'll post the link. In the meantime, lets hope the models down flip like they did yesterday.

Chip

 

[Chris Heater]

Looks like we're set to get 3 to 5" of snow here in east central Illinois. So close to getting more towards the amounts of 8" or so, but i'll take the 5". Just when I thought winter is over...and when we had taken the plow off our tractor. I think its time to put it on once more

 

[Chip Redmond]

Looks like things are actually trending to pushing the freezing line farther southward! NAM pegs it south of the Ohio River now for nearly all Friday. This would greatly up our snow totals here in southeast Ohio. It is leaning towards near 8+ inches now.

With a weak high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean it looks like this could become a major cold air damming event also for the eastern Appalachians.

Chip

 

[Bill Schintler]

Winter Weather Discussion - Iowa

A minor winter storm will bring an inch or two of snow to much of Iowa on Friday. Energy from this same system evolves into a major winter storm affecting the east coast on Saturday. Locally, light snow or flurries will fall overnight with little or no accumulation. Light snow will then overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the early morning hours on Friday. Looking ahead, another system will bring a few inches of snow to the area starting Sunday afternoon; this will be followed by much colder temperatures. Below is time of arrival and total snow accumulation for Friday’s event for specific locations in central and eastern IA:

Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will start at 8:30 AM Friday and accumulate to 0.6 inches

Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start at 7:30 AM Friday and accumulate to 1.6 inches.

North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Snow will start at 9:30 AM Friday and accumulate to less then a half-inch.

Marengo, IA:
Snow will start at 8 AM Friday and accumulate to 1.4 inches.

Union, IA:
Snow will start at 9:30 AM Friday and accumulate to less then a half-inch.

Discussion:
A split-flow ULVL pattern will continue across the central US over the next 24 to 48 hours. The Hudson Bay low and associated trough will drift slowly eastward over time, while a long-wave trough moves east through the Gulf of Mexico. Between these two jet branches, a shortwave will track across MO; which will be a minor winter weather maker over IA and MO on Friday. This same feature will merge with the aforementioned jet branches over the eastern US on Saturday with the SFC low bombing along the NC coast beginning on 00Z Saturday, with a major winter storm affecting Washington DC and other locations along the eastern US.

Locally, a weak winter storm will affect the area as a mid/upper-level circulation tracks to our south. Overnight, WAA and isentropic upglide increases along the 290K SFC with some light snow or flurries, however a dry easterly flow will hinder top-down saturation in most areas until Friday morning. Looking at model guidance, the UKMET has been most consistent with the track of the mid-level wave to our south. An omega bulls-eye will track through MO, with weaker lift over IA of approximately -1 to -2 ub/s. The ECMWF appears to have the best handle on the ULVL features as compared against WV loop verification. Precipitable water will range from 0.3 to 0.4 inches, however snow-to-liquid ratios will fairly low at just over10:1 for the duration of the accumulating snowfall. Additionally, a very modest dendritic growth zone is noted. Subsidence and dry air works in form the northeast Friday night, bringing an end to the precipitation.

- bill s
8:39 PM CST, 02/04/10

 

[Chip Redmond]

I forgot to post my link here yesterday, but my analysis/forecast of the storm can be found here: http://www.scalialab.com/news/febstorm.html

Hope everyone enjoys the read. Always open to comments. We are already getting alot more rain than expected...but they are increasing the expected totals?? Unless there is something I am really missing, I don't see this region getting over 8". Dry slot early, early Saturday morning could be possible too. Definitely something to watch...



-Chip

 

[Chris Heater]

I got about 2 or 3" of snow. Didn't get the chance to measure it before the wind started howling. Next storm! This was just a nuisance

 

[Chris Hayes]

Storm total here in Canton, Ohio is 14 inches. Got 4 inches yeterday, then another 10 last night.

 

[David Mikulec]

It rained here until around 3:30am before switching to heavy, wet snow. Was expecting most of our accumulation (2-4") to come from wrap around precip but that didn't materialize. And it stayed warmer than expected, it was still 38º when I went to bed at 2AM. All we've seen is a dusting here in Boyle Co. Kentucky.