bark worse then bite (recent high risks)

[Terry Tyler]

it doesnt seem like the past two high-risk days were as prolific as typical high-risk days compared to the usuall SPC guidelines...

i know that the population effected also has an effect...like the 4/13 high risk...the high risk area was centered over the dallas-fortworth metroplex which to my understanding they use a high risk if alot of people are going to be effected by the event...a tornado did hit the metroplex, but there werent the "20 or more" tornadoes that usually occur with a high risk...

the 4/24 high risk had achieved the report criteria, but most of the tornadoes did not form within the risk area...why havent these past two high risks not been so bad in the risk area compared to previous high risks? is it just because the conditions were favorable for a major severe weather outbreak that could produce so many tornadoes?

the last few high risks seemed alot of tornado reports compared to the latest 2...

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Keep in mind, though, that a high risk can also be issued for a widespread high-end derecho event as well as a traditional tornado outbreak. And as we all know, meteorology is far from an exact science .

That being said, I would be interested to see Rich T's insight on the upgrade (I do remember that he mentioned he was against it, but it was made while he was picking up his kids at school).

 

[rdale]

why havent these past two high risks not been so bad in the risk area compared to previous high risks? is it just because the conditions were favorable for a major severe weather outbreak that could produce so many tornadoes?

No, it's because conditions were NOT favorable for major severe weather.

The SPC forecaster thought they would be, some forecasters (including a few here on ST) did, most others did not. I don't know what else you are looking for unless that particular forecaster is a member here and willing to post (but he's not so he won't )

A SPC high risk does not guarantee a severe weather outbreak. It means that person things conditions are favorable for one.

 

[Terry Tyler]

No, it's because conditions were NOT favorable for major severe weather.

The SPC forecaster thought they would be, some forecasters (including a few here on ST) did, most others did not. I don't know what else you are looking for unless that particular forecaster is a member here and willing to post (but he's not so he won't )

A SPC high risk does not guarantee a severe weather outbreak. It means that person things conditions are favorable for one.

really? so its not a team-decision...i notice it says "edwards" "benelli" "johnson" etc on the bottom of the outlook...so thats the only forecaster who is in charge of issuing the outlook?

so it could be a matter of a forecasters opinion based on the certian ingredients in the area? not a whole team of severe weather forecasters discussing the situation...

i know there have been busts when caps havent broke etc...so is it best to use the convective outlooks as a sort of 'overview' instead of treating them as ground truth?

i guess its always best to look at the indicies yourself and asses the situation..."meteorology isnt an exact science" so you can set a high risk for a particular region, but you cant exactly forecast the future...the conditions may be there, but you cant always tell exactly how it will unfold...

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I think it is pretty much a one person decision.. I know they do collaborate somewhat, especially on days like those..

It is important to me to realize that high risk days hold lots of bust potential.. Lots of time, you have very dynamic setups, and it is most likely capped And some spots become more favorable...Also, sometimes things ignite before scheduled..

I think Rich Thompson would be the best at explaining this all..