An Understatement?

[rdale]

Tuesday had temps in the 30's with 4-8" of snow on the ground in NW Ohio... Here's the NWS wording for today:

.TODAY...NOT AS COOL. RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

Not as cool???

- Rob

 

[Shane Adams]

Actually I found it more interesting that I correctly assumed this thread would have something to do with the NWS as soon as I saw the name attached to it.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
Tuesday had temps in the 30's with 4-8\" of snow on the ground in NW Ohio... Here's the NWS wording for today:

.TODAY...NOT AS COOL. RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

Not as cool???

- Rob

LOL... I would have worded it using "mild" or even "un-seasonable mild"...

 

[rdale]

"correctly assumed this thread would have something to do with the NWS"

Ouch - I've been _very_ quiet lately especially given the fact that the 1985 Farmers Almanac extrapolated to this season has done better than my local office when it comes to snowfall forecasting this year, I've honestly never seen such a horrible winter out of NWS as this one has been...

- Rob

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
\"correctly assumed this thread would have something to do with the NWS\"

Ouch - I've been _very_ quiet lately especially given the fact that the 1985 Farmers Almanac extrapolated to this season has done better than my local office when it comes to snowfall forecasting this year, I've honestly never seen such a horrible winter out of NWS as this one has been...

- Rob

A few others and I have noticed several new people working at the NWS (by tne name signatures)... So there is bound to be a bit more error compared to the regular veteran forecasters.

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by rdale
\"correctly assumed this thread would have something to do with the NWS\"

Ouch - I've been _very_ quiet lately especially given the fact that the 1985 Farmers Almanac extrapolated to this season has done better than my local office when it comes to snowfall forecasting this year, I've honestly never seen such a horrible winter out of NWS as this one has been...

- Rob

You're an opinionated person, which of course I admire. You just never seem to chime in about anything else. It'd be good reading if you did.

 

[rdale]

I used to be a big snow man on the WW board but got sick of all the crap there, and this side doesn't have much discussion on winter stuff so I keep it within my smaller group this time of the year. I think you'll find a majority of my posts overall are in the Target Area and have nothing to do with NWS, but then again those are less memorable ;>

Most of my non-forecasting time is spent on the programming side. I'm working now to help get Level II data into the field with GRLevel2, which looks like it is going to be an incredible piece of software for this season with "live" NEXRAD... http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel2/

- Rob

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
I used to be a big snow man on the WW board but got sick of all the crap there, and this side doesn't have much discussion on winter stuff so I keep it within my smaller group this time of the year. I think you'll find a majority of my posts overall are in the Target Area and have nothing to do with NWS, but then again those are less memorable ;>

Most of my non-forecasting time is spent on the programming side. I'm working now to help get Level II data into the field with GRLevel2, which looks like it is going to be an incredible piece of software for this season with \"live\" NEXRAD... http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel2/

- Rob

Yeah, I can vouch for the Target Area... During the spring/summer your usually there, especially on the Great Lakes/Midwest threads :wink:

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdale

Tuesday had temps in the 30's with 4-8\" of snow on the ground in NW Ohio... Here's the NWS wording for today:

.TODAY...NOT AS COOL. RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

Not as cool???

- Rob

LOL... I would have worded it using "mild" or even "un-seasonable mild"...[/b]

That's not the forecaster, that's the IFPS formatters that produce the zones from the grids. We're told to keep hand editing to a minimum.

We don't like it any more than you do.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Joe Nield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Joe Nield)</div>

Originally posted by rdewey@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdale

Tuesday had temps in the 30's with 4-8\" of snow on the ground in NW Ohio... Here's the NWS wording for today:

.TODAY...NOT AS COOL. RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

Not as cool???

- Rob

LOL... I would have worded it using "mild" or even "un-seasonable mild"...

That's not the forecaster, that's the IFPS formatters that produce the zones from the grids. We're told to keep hand editing to a minimum.

We don't like it any more than you do.[/b]

Well, technically it is right, isn't it? LOL... As long as it's warmer than yesterday, then it will be "NOT AS COOL"... I hardly ever read zone forecasts anyways, I just stick with the AFD's and other data, and build my conclusion from there...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Rob, your should try http://www.easternuswx.com/ They have a ton of pro. mets posting over there, and the weather forums are much more regulated then WW since eastern has an off topic board for that kind of talk.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Originally posted by Joe Nield


That's not the forecaster, that's the IFPS formatters that produce the zones from the grids. We're told to keep hand editing to a minimum.

We don't like it any more than you do.

The NWS has higher priority in the NDFD database, and all the derived graphical and text products that are associated that are seen on almost all NWS field office sites. I'm pretty sure all NWS sites have the experimental text forecast product online, which is a point forecast text product taken straight from the grid point. The ZFP, however, is an areal forecast product, and thus text formatters had to have been developed to take a grouping of gridded information and put words to it... which is more difficult than making words from just one point. We are in a bit of a quagmire in this regard, because text formatters for the ZFP is like a science. It's quite intimidating, and I know a little bit about Python.

The direction of the NWS is the NDFD database, and, in time, all other products will be generated directly from the grids...operationally, not just experimentally. It will take time. The ZFP, in time (probably a long time though), will eventually go away...thus not a lot of time is taken to manual tweak wording. Get the gridded database fit to your (collaborated) forecast, and all is good. That's the 1st priority. The only "areal" product we would continue producing in the (distant?) future would be the SAF, produced for CRS only for weather radio. There's certainly a long way to go in this "digital" modernization still, but we are coming along...

Mike U

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by Mike Umscheid+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mike Umscheid)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Joe Nield

That's not the forecaster, that's the IFPS formatters that produce the zones from the grids. We're told to keep hand editing to a minimum.

We don't like it any more than you do.

The NWS has higher priority in the NDFD database, and all the derived graphical and text products that are associated that are seen on almost all NWS field office sites. I'm pretty sure all NWS sites have the experimental text forecast product online, which is a point forecast text product taken straight from the grid point. The ZFP, however, is an areal forecast product, and thus text formatters had to have been developed to take a grouping of gridded information and put words to it... which is more difficult than making words from just one point. We are in a bit of a quagmire in this regard, because text formatters for the ZFP is like a science. It's quite intimidating, and I know a little bit about Python.

The direction of the NWS is the NDFD database, and, in time, all other products will be generated directly from the grids...operationally, not just experimentally. It will take time. The ZFP, in time (probably a long time though), will eventually go away...thus not a lot of time is taken to manual tweak wording. Get the gridded database fit to your (collaborated) forecast, and all is good. That's the 1st priority. The only "areal" product we would continue producing in the (distant?) future would be the SAF, produced for CRS only for weather radio. There's certainly a long way to go in this "digital" modernization still, but we are coming along...

Mike U[/b]

I've never liked the gridpoint forecasts. I see them as an attempt to be better than we are, an unfortunate side effect of private sector overzealousness.

My problem with the lack of effort towards the formatters is we end up having things that can sound pretty ridiculous to our customers. I don't have a problem with NDFD in theory. In practice, common sense is kind of thrown out the window at times. It will be interesting to see how the balance between science and pretty pictures works out.