AAARRRRRGGGHHH!!!!!

[Andy Wehrle]

I know it's still February, but is anyone else sick of hearing this?


CPC Sez:

For Monday February 27 - Friday March 03: The predicted circulation pattern features a shift from primarily zonal flow to more amplified flow, with a ridge building over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Surface temperatures should be well below average during this time across the Eastern and far western states as well as Alaska, with temperatures being warmer than normal across a large portion of the west-central CONUS. With northwesterly flow aloft dominating much of the Lower 48 states, a primarily dry pattern is expected, especially over the Central and Eastern states, with moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico essentially cut off.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Just give it some time...I think March looks like it may be kind of interesting...the Pacific looks unsettled and very troughy. Things will pick up soon, now we just have to be patient. Not a huge fan of March chasing but....March 13, 1990 has to be remembered (not too mention other major outbreaks). Hang on for the ride is my best suggestion. March may not come in like a lion but the roar may be on its way !!

 

[Dan Cook]

I'm not worried. I would be if this was late March or April and saw that though.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This was the pattern during most of May last year. Then came June. Give it some time and it will change.

 

[nickgrillo]

Last few runs of the GFS has shown a georgous southwesterly flow regime opening up over the southern plains by March 2nd as a large-scale upper trof moves onto the west coast. Strong low-level southeasterly flow off the gulf feeds in deep, quality moisture into the warm sector (making for good boundary layer instability). While it may not pan out like this, it sure is nice to see a troughy west coast and southwesterly flow regime taking over -- which reminds us that the storm season IS coming -- and coming quickly.

If the pattern does play out like this -- I could see some severe weather happening within the first week of March across the southern plains. I am looking foward to chasing this season and I look foward to spending A LOT of time on the plains this year. I think with the wicked fall season and the already active year so far (2 Jan and 16 Feb to name a couple) -- we could be in for some nice early events this year.

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/AVN/av...250_spd_240.gif
Large-scale upper trof moving onto the western US

 

[rdale]

Did someone actually post a 240-hr, non-ensemble graphic on a meteorological forum ;> ?

 

[nickgrillo]

Yeah... I was just staring at the GFS and wishcasting :wink:

Originally posted by rdale
Did someone actually post a 240-hr, non-ensemble graphic on a meteorological forum ;> ?

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I'm hoping that maybe we might get lucky with some early march action for spring break. Since, I could chase then mark on your calendars that nothing will happen between 11-19.

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Andy, I hate the snow too buddy.

I was excited about this snowstorm we just got, but now with this stagnant cold air pattern from Canada I wanna just puke!

J~Mac = Severe SDS
:cry:

 

[Alex Lamers]

Get used to the high and dry northwest flow pattern here in Wisconsin. I know its boring and cold, but I don't see much hope in the near future. Hoping for a pattern shift into the Spring.

Some encouraging signs in far extended CPC outlooks and various other sources. Looking for a dominant western troughiness over the Spring months, we'll see if I'm right but thats my story and I'm stickin to it. Good news for chasers...some light at the end of the tunnel at least.

 

[Joel Wright]

I was a bit scared to open this thread initially. I thought this might be some sort of pirate thread. Aaaaaaaaaarg!!


This dry northwest flow pattern will break down eventually. It's getting late enough now that when it does break down, we could have an early season low-top event!

 

[Joerg Kachelmann]

Temperatures on 850 near record (upper black line since 1948) for central OK for March 1st:

signals for precip...:

and the MOS for OKC still with a shy hope for the next hours and picking up heat later...

http://weather.us/fcdiagram.php?nr=723530