A solid hit on seasonal forecasting

[Shane Young]

Those annual predictions? They're usually not worth the paper they're printed on. And now a large paper has hit them hard.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124096550135766317.html

Bout time

 

[Wes Carter]

But the greatest irony is their timing. For whatever reason, last year they all pretty much nailed it.

 

[IAN GIAMMANCO]

I do think they have some value, and especially in the risk analysis industry. Now the should the general public know about them?, probably not and it may cause more harm than good. 2007 is a good example, with an above average activity but only 1 US landfall (Humberto) thus the impression from the general public in the US seemed to be a below average year. These forecasts do have some statistical skill and are better (if only a little) than a coin flip. The media has latched onto seasonal forecasts so I don't think they are going away.

I think the future of this work maybe in full numerical simulations of an entire season rather than statistical modeling as our modeling and computational capabilities continue to improve.