9/30/07 NOW: KS/IA/NE/MO/OK

[Michael O'Keeffe]

A severe t-storm watch has been issued for much of E Kansas, W MO into SE NE and NE OK. Looks like we are in for a big squall line event. Storms initiating east of Hutchinson now and they will be screaming east towards the KS/MO as the cold front (which is easily seen on radar) pushes eastward.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Tornado Watch up for most of E NE and W IA, appears CU field may be developing in the middle of the clear slot W of Lincoln, worth watching as it should race off to the NE, appears it may be on some sort of DL bulge just ahead of the crashing CF.

EDIT: CU field looks like its now expanding just WNW of Lincoln indeed looks as though this is along the DL bulge, also some bubbling CU ahead of ongoing convection along hwy 30 in NE from Fremont W towards Schylur.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Nice convergence now ahead of DL, which looks to be bulging in NE Kansas. Also better surface winds just ahead of this area from Falls City, NE to Rock Port area in NW Missouri. Looks to me like there's still potential in SW Iowa ... Shenendoah-Red Oak. Everything south is in unidirectional winds and looks like a squall setting up shop -

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

Sitting in Ankeny Iowa right now with Joel Wright trying to decide our next move. Liking the clearing in western Iowa, along with the rapid transport of low-level moisture that has already taken place. We will probably head a bit further west and try to intercept the yet to develop cells before they begin to line out...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Additional clusters/lines look to be trying to get going in eastern KS. Better winds here and some decent moisture, with Theta axis across NE Kansas all the way down to Kansas City. Wonder if these will hold together -

 

[MatthewCarman]

Looks like new watch may be needed for central IA as the line of storms in eastern Kansas and north west Missouri begin to extend northward. Interesting how they are using the new storm warning system and the new warnings cover the worst part of the storm instead of the whole county.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Decent CU field along the dryline over Eastern Nebraska. Caps too strong right now, but once that vort max approaches in the next 1-3 hours storm should fire as indicated by the latest RUC.

There isn't much directional shear in the 850 to 500mb layer, but there's good speed shear, and the overall 0-6km shear is fine for supercells. The surface winds should back throughout the day as the surface low deepends as indicated by the latest RUC over western/central Iowa, which should enhance the low level shear for any supercells that form. We shall see what happens soon.

I still find it very interesting how similar this setup is to November 12, 2005. The cold front/dryline placement is almost exactly the same. The only major difference I see is the CAP. Today it's much stronger, which will hold off convection until later in the afternoon/evening. But that will only increase the amount of instabilty and low level moisture. I see the SPC is on top of the tornado threat over Western Iowa. It's too bad I didn't have the time or energy for that matter to be up in Western/Central Iowa for this one. Looks like it's going to be a good tornado show.

Good luck to all.

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

In Boone IA currently, waiting for the cap to break. Surprised it's still holding in western IA. Some agitated cumulus starting to build just northeast of OMA however. I guess we'll wait here a little longer until it shows it's cards and we can go after something definitive.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

The Dryline, coldfront intersection can easily be seen now on OAX radar, right in Cumming Co. had one really weak tower go up in Harrison Co IA, just as it started to anvil it gave up and was ripped apart, appears visually though as CU are beginning to become more agitated back to the W again, still think there is at least some hope for convection fire right along the DL and work NE into W IA.

 

[Nick Hartley]

Might as well add South Dakota to the list. Clay County is under a tornado warning and there are some decent storms firing here as well. Looks like we got our cap to break first.

 

[Eric Flescher]

tornado warning near Yankton which is near Sioux City, IA

heads up! tornado warning near Yankton which is near Sioux City, IA. Also cells are pushing into Eastern Kansas with severe thunderstorm watches eminent near Leavenworth and into . I will target and run out to try to intercept a cell which is heading for Baldwin City, KS near Olathe a few miles away from me.
this just came up
Significant Weather Alert JOHNSON-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- 343 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT... THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT DOES INCLUDE THE KANSAS SPEEDWAY. AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINWOOD...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE SOTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION...WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CURRENTLY BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...IN ADDITION TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PEOPLE IN JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LINWOOD...DE SOTO...BONNER SPRINGS...EDWARDSVILLE... LAKE QUIVIRA...SHAWNEE AND KANSAS CITY KANSAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

 

[afischer]

Kind of a troublesome setup. Strong low-level shear along the KS-MO border is not being taken advantage of due to linear mode. Meanwhile up north, the band of dpva has primarily been moving along behind the surface wind shift. Looks like the large scale lift has finally caught up to the warm sector way up north along the SD-IA border, but sr-hodographs here are pretty small in spite of backed surface flow. Still can't discount a tornado or two there due to ambient vorticity.

 

[Jim Bishop]

I'm surprised there aren't more towering CU along the dryline over extreme Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa. The CAP must be stronger than forecast. But within the next hour I still think convection will fire as that very intense vort max approaches, allowing for a few discrete supercells with tornadoes to develop.

The 20Z RUC still suggests convection will fire too. Unfortunately this only leaves an hour or two window for daylight. So this event may mature from dusk to a little after dark. Timing is everything with these kind of setups, and right now the CAP is causing the timing to be a little off.

 

[Daniel Christianson]

I think were almost done, here in Eastern NE, front either is close or pushing through, temps have cooled off and the winds are churning.. it looks like a friggin dust bowl out of town with the farmers in the fields... CU was struggling, but trying to get going again

 

[kenny_allen]

Brief Funnel/Possible Tornado

SevereStudios.com Chase Team is in the field and chasing a tornado warned cell. Funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground. TORNADO DEVELOPING IN SIOUX COUNTY, IA -- 5 SW OF ROCK VALLEY. ON CHASE CAM RIGHT NOW!

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