9/22/05 NOW: GREAT LAKES

[Kurt Hulst]

Nick exactly. BUt i now see precip due south of me and that may intesify. i still can rush onto 94 and head east problem is traffic. 94 sucks

 

[nickgrillo]

Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75" inch being detected by GRLevel3.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
KDTX has very sensitive algorithms, so those are almost always ignored. And you never would just look at the algorithm and say \"bad storm\" - you look at radar and if an algorithm trips you include that into the process of evaluation.

In any case I blew off the Ionia storm (now SVR'd for Clinton Co) so I wouldn't be too far away from the explosive development in SW Mich.

Still waiting for my explosion...

It looks like we may be getting our explosion about 25 miles west of LAN, extending southwestward. It's just a few cells now, but they have been steadily growing over the past 15 minutes. Also, they are advecting into an area with temps well into the 80's, with Td's near 70F. This is allowing from MLCAPE to reach 1500-2000J/KG, and with the 850/500MB jet max overhead, I would expect these to blowup rather quickly...

EDIT: Also of interest, SPC mesoanalysis shows >350M2/S2 effective SRH, so some of these SFC based storms may actually produce an isolated tornado (LCL's are mediocre).

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75\" inch being detected by GRLevel3.

Wow, that cell is looking real nice! It appears to be turning into a flying eagle (although rather small)...

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75\" inch being detected by GRLevel3.

Wow, that cell is looking real nice! It appears to be turning into a flying eagle (although rather small)...[/b]

It's tempting me... I'm seriously thinking of throwing my Canon Rebel & Sony miniDV into the car, and darting southwest.

EDIT: Okay, yeah... It's been like 3 monthes since a true chase, so I'm out. Good luck to all!

 

[Eric Stoner]

A TVS indicator just showed up on IWX's nexrad at Branch County/St. Joseph County MI line.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Just got back from eating, and I can't believe there wasn't a TOR issued for the Coldwater area. That storm looked like it had a decent hook echo on it (in addition to being a right mover). Then again, all I have is BREF data, so velocity scans and other parameters probably weren't favorable...

 

[Andrew Khan]

Gosh, all warnings have now been withdrawn in the MI area. I'm also surprised there was not a tornado warning for one of the cells, I saw a pretty darn good hook, as Rdewey mentioned. Radar is indicated four ETVS' as the storms move onto Lake Erie. I still see decent rotation in this storm as well...as well in the storm in Ohio....

 

[Andrew Khan]

Tornado Warning Just Issued for IL. Velocity scan is showing pretty strong rotation.

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Tornado Warning Just Issued for IL. Velocity scan is showing pretty strong rotation.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Velocity Scan:

Pretty sweet looking hook, Dan.

 

[rdale]

"Just got back from eating, and I can't believe there wasn't a TOR issued for the Coldwater area."

I was under the rotation, no signs of it extending down or tightening up. Report tomorrow - I'm pooped after 300 miles and 5 hours but it ROCKED!!!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
\"Just got back from eating, and I can't believe there wasn't a TOR issued for the Coldwater area.\"

I was under the rotation, no signs of it extending down or tightening up. Report tomorrow - I'm pooped after 300 miles and 5 hours but it ROCKED!!!

That's interesting... I didn't have other radar data available, but I am guessing the rotation was rather broad on the low level SRV scans, not tight enough to produce anything. Also - if I recall correctly - SPC mesoanalysis had a pretty steep gradient of higher LCL's to the south, right about where that cell was located. This was most likely the result of a larger SFC Td depression, versus the cooler areas to the north...

Just an example of why every TVS signature on the radar doesn't produce a tornado!

 

[Andrew Khan]

Yep, TVS', ETVS' and Meso Rings, can be deceptive. They can be triggered by false things, that may not even be related to rotation. I also would assume, that the rotation was broad. If your right under broad rotation, it's harder to see, that being under tight rotation, of course.

 

[nickgrillo]

Just returned home after a "chase" across southeast MI... First, I stopped for the Washtenaw county stuff, then I followed to the west and dropped south towards the supercells that were now entering Hillsdale county. It was way too far south for me to intercept it, although I stood a nice distance from it and got some good lightning shots.

I'll make a report with pictures in a few...