9/22/05 NOW: GREAT LAKES

Well i thouhgt i would start a now thread since I have been getting storms since 7am this morning and they keep training across the area. My county (Kent) has had one severe warning for it i did not get anything severe but i did have some really close lightning bolts which was great. There is a cell in Muskegon right now but i think that will stay to my north by a few miles. The cloud cover here has not gone away and i dont think it will go away other than a few breaks in he clouds the best heating for instability is farther south Twoards the IN/MI border. As Rdale pointed out in the FCST thread a bit ago. Im not sure if ill take the venture south for that today or not. Im just glad to hear and see some nice lightning and thunder.
 
I'd have to say the threat for severe weather for this evening is increasing (plenty of insolation/SFC heating south of I-94 - allowing for temperatures to rise into the 80s) nicely.

Severe storms to the north near the Flint/Saginaw area should be packing some pretty good winds with them... Velocity scans showing an area of +64KNTS moving towards the Flint area.

EDIT: Just as I posted, the storms to the north have fell apart :lol:
 
Nick, which storms are you saying fell apart? There are two severe thunderstorm warnings in WI, moving east pretty fast, which will eventually go over Lake MI, and then towards MI, that is if, they do not dissipate in the meantime. There are some damaging winds reported with this storm, some 40 MPH gusts. There is also some Hail reports. There are no severe thunderstorm warnings, in MI, but the storms are still looking good, as they head on through Oakland, Livingston, St. Clair, Macomb and Lapeer counties. They have a bunch of meso-rotations, with one in excess of 8.0 nm. There are two ETVS’ in the western boundary of this storm. Some parts of Kent County have gotten 2.50 inches of rain. Kurt, have you seen any hail there yet? I can’t say I see any strong torm scale rotation, via radar other than one area.
 
The activity that passed through Flint was elevated for the most part, so looked better on radar than it did at the surface although some wind damage was reported. Good amount of large hail reports coming from Milwaukee's area, I think that'll result in a watch being issued soon for MI/IN/OH as per my FCST post.
 
Nick is refering to the junk north of det. around flint/saginaw. Also, even with the very strong winds aloft, 80knots at 10k feet, the storms lack surface based instablity, and are thus elavated. So, while there maybe an isolated small hail/marg. wind report, the storms north of det. are pretty much junk.

Now, as for the cells moving on lake michigan and into the SW part of the state, those have real good shots are becoming severe with temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints near 70. They have already produced golf ball hail in SE wis. and show signs of rotation, so there could be a worthwhile storm or two in Sw michigan today.

Edit, Mr. dale beat me to the punch. :lol:
 
Yeah, blue box just issued for MI/IL...

Strong SFC-heating has allowed for temperatures to rise into the mid 80s south of I-94... With strong southwesterly flow at the SFC advecting in good amounts of moisture - Allowing for the boundary layer to rapidly become unstable...

Kenosha storm has been showing very impressive structure on radar... With VILs >70 in the past few scans. Given SBCAPE >3000 I'd have to say it could certainly produce some pretty good hail (with it likely being SFC-based).
 
MCD just issued for MI/IL/WI.

These storm systems are moving eastward bound about, 25-35 KT. Heating in the next few hours here, will likely make for some possible SFC based thunderstorms. I would also say their is a good potential for damaging winds since the storms in WI/IL are more SFC based. MLCAPE could ascend to at least 3000 J/KG, when insolation gets higher, later on in the evening.
 
They aren't "more" surface based - they are surface based. Anyways some nice mid-level rotation showing up over the lake cell, but LOT VAD not very impressive and I just don't see a TOR threat being viable.
 
Originally posted by rdale
LOT VAD not very impressive and I just don't see a TOR threat being viable.

Yeah, I agree with that... Too bad (it's actually exhibited supercell structure, too).

Storms continue to intensify right off the coast, with the storms just to the west of Grand Haven showing very high VIL/reflectivity - with them likely SVR with hail...
 
KDTX has very sensitive algorithms, so those are almost always ignored. And you never would just look at the algorithm and say "bad storm" - you look at radar and if an algorithm trips you include that into the process of evaluation.

In any case I blew off the Ionia storm (now SVR'd for Clinton Co) so I wouldn't be too far away from the explosive development in SW Mich.

Still waiting for my explosion...
 
currently siiting in Plainfield about 30 minutes south of home. I was headed after that cell that came from Kenosha and it did exhibit roatation over the lake with a 50,000 top. it has definetly decreased and is headed for better instability on shore so i hope it will pick up i chose to stay east of the shor line from a 131 perspective as i was some what expecting this so it may build back up. if not of well im not far from home.
 
Getting steady rain and intermitent thunder here in Stratford, ON. We are under svr t-storm watch till 9 pm. I personally doubt there is much chance of any thing exploding here.
 
Originally posted by Kurt Hulst
well crap
yes its still warm as crap down here. and my storm has crapped out

Yeah, the storm is completely ripped apart... Which I find rather surprising, SBCAPE >2500J/KG and +50KNT deep-layer shear should have let it strengthen as it moved onshore.

Wait, sorry... This is Michigan :roll: :lol:
 
Nick exactly. BUt i now see precip due south of me and that may intesify. i still can rush onto 94 and head east problem is traffic. 94 sucks
 
Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75" inch being detected by GRLevel3.
 
Originally posted by rdale
KDTX has very sensitive algorithms, so those are almost always ignored. And you never would just look at the algorithm and say \"bad storm\" - you look at radar and if an algorithm trips you include that into the process of evaluation.

In any case I blew off the Ionia storm (now SVR'd for Clinton Co) so I wouldn't be too far away from the explosive development in SW Mich.

Still waiting for my explosion...

It looks like we may be getting our explosion about 25 miles west of LAN, extending southwestward. It's just a few cells now, but they have been steadily growing over the past 15 minutes. Also, they are advecting into an area with temps well into the 80's, with Td's near 70F. This is allowing from MLCAPE to reach 1500-2000J/KG, and with the 850/500MB jet max overhead, I would expect these to blowup rather quickly...

EDIT: Also of interest, SPC mesoanalysis shows >350M2/S2 effective SRH, so some of these SFC based storms may actually produce an isolated tornado (LCL's are mediocre).
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75\" inch being detected by GRLevel3.

Wow, that cell is looking real nice! It appears to be turning into a flying eagle (although rather small)...
 
Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo
Kurt,

Good development finally... Cass county cell just beginning to fire already showing large hail signatures on radar. Given southwest MI is prime for severe thunderstorms (hail, wind and maybe even a weak tornado) - I'd go after it...

EDIT: Get down there... It's not far from where you are (Cass county) and it's showing extremely large hail indications (VIL >60 already) with 2.75\" inch being detected by GRLevel3.

Wow, that cell is looking real nice! It appears to be turning into a flying eagle (although rather small)...[/b]

It's tempting me... I'm seriously thinking of throwing my Canon Rebel & Sony miniDV into the car, and darting southwest.

EDIT: Okay, yeah... It's been like 3 monthes since a true chase, so I'm out. Good luck to all!
 
A TVS indicator just showed up on IWX's nexrad at Branch County/St. Joseph County MI line.
 
Just got back from eating, and I can't believe there wasn't a TOR issued for the Coldwater area. That storm looked like it had a decent hook echo on it (in addition to being a right mover). Then again, all I have is BREF data, so velocity scans and other parameters probably weren't favorable...
 
Gosh, all warnings have now been withdrawn in the MI area. I'm also surprised there was not a tornado warning for one of the cells, I saw a pretty darn good hook, as Rdewey mentioned. Radar is indicated four ETVS' as the storms move onto Lake Erie. I still see decent rotation in this storm as well...as well in the storm in Ohio....
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Tornado Warning Just Issued for IL. Velocity scan is showing pretty strong rotation.

hook9iw.png
 
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