Shane Adams
The clearing in SW OK/NW TX is slowly being invaded from the north by cirrus. Winds aren't backed at all south into Texas, generally SSW. All things seem to be pointing to extreme SW OK/NW TX.
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- Weather and Chasing
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Mickey Ptak
EF5
Moved to forecast thread.
Im heading out, late start, Lawton is where i will go and make my decision from there.
If anyone needs me im on my cell
Chris Wilburn
EF4
Here at the McDonalds in Altus where I have an internet connection. Going to stay here for the time being and monitor things. If anyone wants to swing by I am in a 99 beige colored Nissan Altima. Good luck to everybody!mikegeukes
EF5
Storms are now firing in Eastern Crosby County, Northwest Dickens
County and Southern Motley County, just east of Lubbock, TX. you can
see a boundary moving off to the wsw on the loop, storms fired just south
of the boundary, and another boundary you can see in easterly-westerly
direction. Movement of the storms northeast, storms should move into
Cottle Counties soon, and if continue on its present path Childress,
Hardeman and Foard Counties should see the storms,
Storms just south of Lubock, which is Lynn and Garza Countues.
Edit: Lynn County now under a Severe THunderstorm Warning
movement to the northeast at 25 mph.
Edit: Dickens County now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Movement Northeast at 25 mph.
Edit: Storms now firing in King County
Mike
Stuart Robinson
EF5
At 21z the boundary (visible from FDR Radar) is lying SW, NE The puts it Just North of Quanah, TX and just South of Altus, OK. Stay East of Altus :wink:
Meanwhile in dickens County a cell has formed on the boundary and is moving NE along it.
Bill Tabor
EF5
Weathertap radar is currently reporting a TVS on cell R0 which is west of Roaring Springs in southern Motley county. All Prob of hail 100% up to 1.75 and tops to 41.7
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Currently in Quanah, trying to decide whether to go WSW towards the cells south-southwest of CDS, or wait it out and see if something develops closer. Current mesoanalysis graphics show very favorable conditions for tornadoes along the Red River and in extreme sw OK.
Bill Tabor
EF5
Now 3 TVS's. Two in Motley county and one in Lynn county south of Lubbock. Guess I should have gotten off my lazy butt and made the drive afterall.
SPC Mesoanalysis is showing a lot of significant readings in the area near Childress - along the Red in the vicinity and a bit south of there. Cells are starting to pop all around.
Jeff, looks like you are generally in the right area. As those cells get closer they should intensify, but be aware of clutter from other storms. That may eventually make the southern storms a good choice, but don't go too far south or you will get out of the good. Gentlemen...chase em if you've got em. The show has started!
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
If anyone is near the cell that will soon pass close to post pay close attention the storm has exploded and is just starting to show signs of rotation.
Shear is now at 37 ks with base of 3200ft
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Well the SFC dew points are much better (72f-74f) over Jackson county and the winds are now backing nicely. North Texas has dew points 63f to 65f. Also the cells in Motley county now look to be behind the boundary, cells in Dickens county look on the boundary...
I think the main play will be any cell that can stay isolated or clear to the SE and hold it until it reaches the moist pool over the red river Right now the young cell North of Guthrie looks prime …. Providing there is no more development to the South.
Bill Tabor
EF5
Right now I kind of like the looks of the cell in northern Dickens county. It is currently a TVS and is southernmost in a south/north stack of supercells. Personally this is the first cell I'd go for here probably. It seems to be a bit larger and decent curvature on base. I am afraid of the cells to the east causing these cells to ingest rain cooled air soon though.
All these cells have strengthened briefly as the E/W boundary is moving south through them.
Another good cell is the one south of Lubbock. I'd maybe hit it after the cell in Dickens dies. It also has a nice sideways flying eagle shape at the moment and is south of all the other cell mess so may eventually make it the cell of the day especially as it moves into better conditions to the east.Glen Romine
EF5
That whole area looks too crowded to me. I'd hope for something more discrete to develop more to the east. The rest looks to be quickly merging together. ne Dickens county cell motion is clearly deviant, and if it can clear south of the other cells over the next hour it might look more attractive, but helicity values look rather weak that far southeast. I'd be reluctant to commit to a cell yet - but the trend is looking troubling for a discrete tornadic cell. Guess I'd want to hang back near Vernon and see what evolves over the next 30 minutes.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
That cell over Post (SE of LBB) looks real tasty and it has just tripped a TVS - wierd tail like feature as well coming from the South west side of it
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
The cell noted above now has very strong rotation radar estimates a base at 2300 ft and a hook is now starting to show up on radar right by the town of Post.Similar threads
