9/14/05 NOW: Southern Plains

Shane Adams

The clearing in SW OK/NW TX is slowly being invaded from the north by cirrus. Winds aren't backed at all south into Texas, generally SSW. All things seem to be pointing to extreme SW OK/NW TX.
Im heading out, late start, Lawton is where i will go and make my decision from there.
If anyone needs me im on my cell
Here at the McDonalds in Altus where I have an internet connection. Going to stay here for the time being and monitor things. If anyone wants to swing by I am in a 99 beige colored Nissan Altima. Good luck to everybody!
Storms are now firing in Eastern Crosby County, Northwest Dickens
County and Southern Motley County, just east of Lubbock, TX. you can
see a boundary moving off to the wsw on the loop, storms fired just south
of the boundary, and another boundary you can see in easterly-westerly
direction. Movement of the storms northeast, storms should move into
Cottle Counties soon, and if continue on its present path Childress,
Hardeman and Foard Counties should see the storms,

Storms just south of Lubock, which is Lynn and Garza Countues.

Edit: Lynn County now under a Severe THunderstorm Warning
movement to the northeast at 25 mph.

Edit: Dickens County now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Movement Northeast at 25 mph.

Edit: Storms now firing in King County

At 21z the boundary (visible from FDR Radar) is lying SW, NE The puts it Just North of Quanah, TX and just South of Altus, OK. Stay East of Altus :wink:

Meanwhile in dickens County a cell has formed on the boundary and is moving NE along it.
Weathertap radar is currently reporting a TVS on cell R0 which is west of Roaring Springs in southern Motley county. All Prob of hail 100% up to 1.75 and tops to 41.7
Currently in Quanah, trying to decide whether to go WSW towards the cells south-southwest of CDS, or wait it out and see if something develops closer. Current mesoanalysis graphics show very favorable conditions for tornadoes along the Red River and in extreme sw OK.
Now 3 TVS's. Two in Motley county and one in Lynn county south of Lubbock. Guess I should have gotten off my lazy butt and made the drive afterall.

SPC Mesoanalysis is showing a lot of significant readings in the area near Childress - along the Red in the vicinity and a bit south of there. Cells are starting to pop all around.

Jeff, looks like you are generally in the right area. As those cells get closer they should intensify, but be aware of clutter from other storms. That may eventually make the southern storms a good choice, but don't go too far south or you will get out of the good. Gentlemen...chase em if you've got em. The show has started!
Well the SFC dew points are much better (72f-74f) over Jackson county and the winds are now backing nicely. North Texas has dew points 63f to 65f. Also the cells in Motley county now look to be behind the boundary, cells in Dickens county look on the boundary...

I think the main play will be any cell that can stay isolated or clear to the SE and hold it until it reaches the moist pool over the red river Right now the young cell North of Guthrie looks prime …. Providing there is no more development to the South.
Right now I kind of like the looks of the cell in northern Dickens county. It is currently a TVS and is southernmost in a south/north stack of supercells. Personally this is the first cell I'd go for here probably. It seems to be a bit larger and decent curvature on base. I am afraid of the cells to the east causing these cells to ingest rain cooled air soon though.

All these cells have strengthened briefly as the E/W boundary is moving south through them.

Another good cell is the one south of Lubbock. I'd maybe hit it after the cell in Dickens dies. It also has a nice sideways flying eagle shape at the moment and is south of all the other cell mess so may eventually make it the cell of the day especially as it moves into better conditions to the east.
That whole area looks too crowded to me. I'd hope for something more discrete to develop more to the east. The rest looks to be quickly merging together. ne Dickens county cell motion is clearly deviant, and if it can clear south of the other cells over the next hour it might look more attractive, but helicity values look rather weak that far southeast. I'd be reluctant to commit to a cell yet - but the trend is looking troubling for a discrete tornadic cell. Guess I'd want to hang back near Vernon and see what evolves over the next 30 minutes.
Those cells to the east and the ones that were in Dickens / Motley counties all appear to be in the process of a big merger (mess?). Perhaps they will merge into something worthwhile? Doubt it - right away anyway. That IMO makes the cell the the SW more of a possibly better choice as stated previously it is more discreet and by itself. I think someone would want to be on that cell as the E/W southward moving boundary passes through the southern cell. That may be the ticket.

This southern cell J0 is still showing TVS and > 4 inch hail indicated per algorythm.
The cell near Post seems to exhibit a persistent RFD signature for past hour and appears to be feeding off a small dryline bulge, so if can persist will definately strengthen with movement into higher Dewpoint air to the east; especially, when collides with OFB. Another area, for those in Quanah or Vernon area, is possibility of a dominant cell or two congealing from stuff northeast of Guthrie and/or from cluster over Dickens / Motley counties. I agree with possible cell of day being the one near Post.

Dryline magic strikes again!
:roll: :roll:

Probably the best stuff right now would be the bow/HP-ish crap from around Childress to Guthrie - where the best SFC-based instability (3000-4000) and deeplayer shear exist. Still at work... But took a brief look at mesoanaly/radar. Despite the strong low-level veering which exists across this region, the best stuff coming out of this would probably be a few significant wind reports as the majority of the stuff bows out.
Yeah it's dark now. Looks like it sux. Guess I'm glad after all I didn't chase it. Probably the subsidence was one of the factors that kept it from really producing - although I'd say there were a few.
Looks like the SPC over done the Moderate Risk tonight. The potential was there for a brief time, but too many storms started blowing up. No storm could really get going and isolated with all the competition around O well, still pretty good storms for mid September. Looks like I have to wait for storms in Colorado and New Mexico to enter the panhandles over night tonight. :D
No need to start a reports thread over this: I headed east out of Lubbock on 62/82 with CDS as my intial target, until I caught up with the Dickens cell on the boundary. It developed a large and very suggestive lowering but it dissipated. My nowcaster turned my attention to the cell that had drifted from Lynn to Garza county as it made a subtle turn from NE to E/NE. Still agasint my better judgement, I headed SW through Spur and intercepted this cell on 651 where it greeted me with golfball sized hail. Once I got positioned I had a great view of all three SVR warned cells in the Lubbock area, all had lowerings, but no visible rotation. Too much traffic in the sky today, but the potential was there. The main event of the day? On the way home, my transmission crapped out.
All of this stuff today was best as far as rotation in the mid levels....the dryline actually outran the mid level jet max. Awesome mixing along that dryline was visible per Lubbock Radar, but the low level environment never really was ripe enough for tornadic storms.
Sharp outflow boundary from thunderstorm complex in KS as pushed all the way to the northern panhandles of TX. Thunderstorms are starting to ignite about 15 miles to my south. Awsome lightning show south of Booker. Going to wait and see if any other storms develop to my north in hopes to get good lightning photos. Can't help to notice the storm in Munday county. The storm is becoming more organized by radar images and probally droping some decent size hail. Good luck to everyone!!!