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8/9/05 FCST: MN, IA

Chase target:
Worthington, MN.


Storm type:
A few discrete storms early in storm evolution, transitioning into a linear complex through 6 PM, at which time the leading edge of the storms will extend along a Rochester to Albert Lea to Estherville line. Hail to 1â€￾ will be possible between 4PM and 6PM, and then during the evening the severe threat will transition to that of winds to 60 MPH.

An MCS in CNTRL MN has pushed an outflow boundary to an EAU-FBL-MWM-PQN-MHE line in WI/MN/SD through 14Z. In MN, this feature appears to be moving SWRD at 25-30mph. Also associated with this MCS is an extensive CI shield covering much of MN and the ERN Dakotas, although thinning/clearing is taking place in SWRN MN. Meanwhile, the synoptic picture shows a surface CF from near DLH to ATY to a developing low pressure near VTN. Upstairs, a couple of vorticity lobes were sagging slowly S along the SRN edge of a 40-60kt ULVL flow.

Later this afternoon, the CF will make a strong push into SWRN/CNTRL MN; and the intersection of it and the outflow boundary will provide the focus for renewed convective development near Worthington as a potent piece of energy at the mid-levels approaches. By 21Z, convective temperatures around 92-94F should be easily reached where clearing has taken place. The synoptic forcing mode suggests that storms will evolve into a linear complex early in evolution and dive S into NRN IA where it will outrun the mid/upper-level support, limiting the SVR potential there after dark.

- bill