8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[David Wolfson]

Frances is a gazilllion kilograms moving at 10 mph. You need some substantial force to turn it, and nothing I see in the current conditions is applying anything like that force. You don't see it in the upper cloud motion, and all the models and people who really know their stuff don't either, up to and including the 5 pm discussion. My guess is it's going a little north of the current consensus track, which is alas about the same track from three days ago. Hope Frances picks up a cold or something, or NASA may be shopping for a new launch complex.

Poor San Salvador. It's been in the eyewall for three or four hours....

 

[Pat Palmer]

the 18Z run of GFS shows an initial landfall near Cape Canaveral, and then indicates Frances turning northwards into GA. Although the storm will quickly lose strength after landfall, the entire east coast south of Deleware Bay can forget about a pleasant Labor Day Weekend due to heavy rain and floods.

I would sooner swallow a handful of finely ground glass than put myself in the path of this very dangerous storm. If Frances strenghtens any further, she will make Andrew look like a summer breeze. (absolutely no disrespect intended to those who lost family or property in Andrew)

 

[Robert Dewey]

TWC has been downplaying the event somewhat, saying that if it continues to "weaken", it could reach Cat. 3. I don't think they should telling people it's going to weaken, since it could change the minds of some people, and they may decide to ride it out.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Well... it sure is losing a lot of its bite. Check out the latest recon:

. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 06
MAX FL WIND 89 KT SE QUAD 2302Z

89kts!?!? Ouch. My feeling is either Frances is dis-embowling itself much like Isabel did (to the point where it never could recover) or this is Florida's worst nightmare in that it is in a major cycle and will dramatically increase in intensity before landfall in the very warm waters off of FL/Bahamas.

Aaron

 

[David Schuttler]

I just read an 8 pm advisory which still had 140mph max sustained

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/022335.shtml?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Currently in Jacksonville, FL. Traffic/gas supplies are not as bad as I thought but I'm sure it will get worse. My target is Winter Haven (well inland) and finding a parking garage. If Frances weakens to Cat 3, then I may try getting closer to the coast. Anyone out wishing to team up please give me a call at 304-610-1374. (I'll remove my cell phone number from this public board after this event is over).

Dan

 

[B Ozanne]

89kts!?!? Ouch.

That was back around 7pm, right about the time it was looking most unorganized. Since then it has pulled itself back together a little.

 

[David Schuttler]

Interesting statement on LAKE OKEECHOBEE

THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...

http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/newpage/ghl...ghls_surge.html

 

[Pat Palmer]

At 9:55 EDT, a vessel moored in Georgetown, bahamas reported winds diminishing to 40Kt gusting 45Kt, with rising pressure. Just came over the hurricane net on 14.325MHz

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Interesting how cloud tops on the entire storm has warmed, yet after 0030Z there has been an intense, expanding surge of cooling in the northeast eyewall. Might this be redevelopment?

Tim

 

[Pat Palmer]

I see redevelopment in the top right quadrant, yet the entire left side seems to be collapsing.

We'll have to wait a few hours to see what plays out, talk about drama =)

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

What could be making the storm fall apart? No real shear, warm water... I just assumed it was an eyewall cycle.

 

[RodgerHeckman]

Dan, will give you a call if I make it up to Palm Bay, Fl. That is where my friend lives. Unfortunately I live south of there and can't leave my area until I figure it's not coming my way. This gives me a small window of opportunity to depart as there are many safety issues that have to be met.

Also you are correct about gas and supplies getting worse, all the gas stations in my area ran out today and I'm sure it's the same throughout the warning area.

Frances looks as though its circulation disrupted and could weaken to a cat3 at landfall and some of the reports say on the news, but I am still concerned about a significant increase in stength once Frances moves over the gulf stream prior to land fall. I remeber Andrew intensified as it came on shore down here.

 

[Joel Wright]

It seemed as though it began to weaken right when it turned more to the right. It seems that EVERY time a MAJOR hurricane turns to the right it weakens, sometimes quite a bit. I'm not sure why this happens, but this always seems to be the case. A weaker non-major hurricane never seems to be as affected by this turn.


One thing is for sure, it's weaker than it was and it's going to take some time to restrengthen. Hopefully it will continue to weaken as it encounters drier air ahead of the storm.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, it was the north side before, and now it looks like the west-side of the 'cane is taking a beating. Outflow to the west has not been advancing much at all throughout the day, indicated of some shear on that side of the 'cane at the outflow level. In fact, you can see the shear at work by looking at the western side of the hurricane on a water-vapor loop. This further goes to demonstrate that tropical storm forecasting can sometimes be a crapshoot... Ouch...

The eye has tried to make another appearance a couple of times this evening, but to no avail. Unless there's some signficant reorganization (which is definately possible), I don't see how we'll end up with a 120kt Frances at landfall... The eye is completely collapsed now, with a central structure more similar to a Cat 1-2 hurricane than a strong 'cane... SSTs are warm and the storm is still plenty organized (950mb 110kt storm of this size requires pretty good organization to begin with), so I wouldn't rule out this storm yet. That said, if the past 24 hours have been an indicator of the environment Frances is moving into, the people of FL have lucked out...