8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Scott Olson]

Pretty impressive to see how Katrina strengthend all the way up and during impact and has now fully emerged and is already stronger than she was before. Key west is some 45 miles from the eye but still sustaining 50 knot winds. Upper level wind shear remains only 10kts and SST and TCHP remains high. No suprise that there was so much accumulations with such a slow moving system. Anyone get any measurements of Hurricane force winds?

 

[Blake Michaleski]

I'm here in Mobile, AL. The ridge is looking to hold on a little longer and now model consensus is well left of current NHC forecast. The northern plains/rockeis S/W trough will be the key player in how the ridge to the north of Kat weakens. OHC values are really favorable well south of MOB and especially out in the loop current.

 

[B Ozanne]

The shift to the west seemed so predictable. I don't know how the NHC blew that one. For every mile the storm tracks west it means it will strike shore dozens of miles to the west

With the models converging on the far western edge of the NHC forecast it seem negligent that the NHC hasn't changed the official track map in an intermediate update. After all that is the track that 98% of the population looks at.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

they dont update the forecast track at intermediatte advisories. also they wont shift teh track too quickly as to preserve some forecast continuity...

I expect teh next nhc update to be similar to ours. right now coastal weather research center in mobile is calling for between pass christian and ft walton beach. guess what's right in the center of that....

 

[MClarkson]

look at the GFDI... 145 knots. It is the max outlier for intensity.


the GFDL and SHIPs call for about 115 at landfall.

My concern now is will landfall occur durring the day? I think its a little too far out to know for sure. That said I am planning on driving down starting tommorow.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looking at the latest IR loop, it still looks like this thing is moving more southwestward than west. If the current GFS has it's way, this thing could become quite a rain maker for areas between the MS river and the Appalachians. GFS progs nearly 6-8 inches for parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, and I know my pepper garden could use it, as much of the area is seeing quite a drought.

I wouldn't be surprised if this thing hits the coast as a strong CAT 4 'cane to tell ya the truth, especially if it stays out over the warm Gulf any longer than NHC currently projects...

 

[Chris Hayes]

Well, the TPC continues to shove the track further and further west. The current track has it hitting just east of New Orleans. Bring it about 50-60 miles west and you can kiss New Orleans goodbye :shock: Can someone post a link to the ocean temps in the northern gulf?

 

[mikegeukes]

Gulf of Mexico SST Images
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/research/NOAA_AVHRR...hive_GOMsst.php
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?pr...xico&nothumbs=1
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/contour.html

30 deg C is 86 F

Mike

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

www.wunderground.com/tropical

They have a pretty good ocean temp. map with the hurricanes posted on it.

Just to throw my two cents in, if the latest GFDL model run is accurate, Katrina will come ashore just south and west of New Orleans. NHC wind estimates peg it out between 130 and 140 mph on landfall. I'm going to sound like a parrot here, but I think the NHC wind estimate is a fair asessment and I'd put my money on it. As for the path, I hate to say New Orleans, so I'll leave it at that.

Also, I see no trends that may weaken this storm or nudge it away from a path with Louisiana. Just my two cents.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I would also like to see a nice map of northern Gulf... I know there's the one linked on the NHC site, but that's not very high-res, and I've seen some nicer ones. Regardless, the ridge to the northwest of K continues to hold strongly, and it appears that the latest NHC track bring Katrina into the LA/MS state line as a cat 4... If this track moves a bit west, there could be a weather event of catastrophic proportions that is the destruction of New Orleans... It certainly appears that this storm has the best opportunity of producing this incredible destruction that we've had in a couple of years.
Last year, Ivan looked like it may have had a chance , but veered east enough to have relatively little effect on New Orleans.

It's interesting that the best performing model in terms of the track of Katrina so far has been the GFDL, which had been forecasting a very similar path to what has actually occurred so far. This model has also been forecasting a major storm to affect the New Orleans area for the past couple of days. The NHC usually praises the FSU superensemble as well, which, interestingly enough, has Katrina at a 131kt hurricane at landfall...

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Latest TPC track of this storm puts it too close for comfort for the folks in New Orleans. I cannot see a fly in the ointment that will weaken the hurricane. Two things coastal residents could hope for: eye-wall replacement cycle just before landfall or a stalled storm with upwelled induced intensity reduction. Heaven forbid a Camille type storm that the GFDL and FSU forecast. Do note that a path slightly deviant to the west would innundate Port Fouchon (pronounced Port "Foo-shawn") which is a major oil shipping port in LA. I suspect a sizable portion of Gulf oil production will be shut down for a few days as it is. Can you say $3.00 gas? (put further gas talk in the B&G thread)

Models are indeed getting tightly clustered as TPC noted in the 11pm advisory....
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Well, the TPC continues to shove the track further and further west. The current track has it hitting just east of New Orleans. Bring it about 50-60 miles west and you can kiss New Orleans goodbye :shock: Can someone post a link to the ocean temps in the northern gulf?

SST and ocean heat content graphics from the AOML NOAA site

This is a fantastic case for testing our 48-72 hour forecasting skills at tropical cyclones. Yes, there is a better model consistency in the track as per 00z/27, but at the same time, there has been consistency in the delta-t of the model cluster forecasts as well! From central FL Panhandle to eastern FL Panhandle to Mobile bay to now N.O. Given the large uncertainties, STILL, who's to say that in 12 hours, we may be seeing a continued persistent westward shift? I think the intensity forecast, in this case, is easier than the track. Very little shear, high-octane ocean heat content, and climatology - I don't see much from preventing Kat to be in a "Cat" of it's own.... pehaps in the category of some historical super hurricanes of the Gulf... I don't think I have ever seen 970 or lower fcsts from global spectral models with TCs. Anyone know the last time a sub 920mb hurricane resided the Gulf?

EDIT: New 00z/27 GFS is coming in... at 42h it's still pretty far south. Bottom line is TX better be watching this one closely. Corpus to Galveston? I mean, it's not like we are talking about a huge, full latitude trof to really swing this thing north given how far south it is already. The 48hr fcsts at this point have been horrific at best. My bet is West, west, west! It's been a loooong time since a catastrophic TX landfaller...

Mike U

 

[Chris Hayes]

Even a cat 3 storm hitting New Orleans would be chatastrophic, let alone a cat 4 or 5. I'm banking on a higher end Cat 4. Meteorologists have warned about this scenario for years now. This deffinately holds the best potential to lay waste to New Orleans. :cry: No matter where it hits, I think it's fair to say there'll never be a Tropical Storm Katrina after this year.

 

[mikegeukes]

From: LSU Earth Scan Laboratory:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurrican...s/2005/KATRINA/

NHC Model Run Plots

Source: LSU Earth Scan Laboratory

Mike

 

[Alex Lamers]

AGGHHH Gas prices are going to be through the roof! They already jumped with mere speculation that Katrina would make it into the Gulf. As it is poised to hit the Louisiana area, I would be ready to shell out even MORE money at the pump.

But back to the issue at hand. Model guidance tracks are cloistered very well now over the LA/MS coast area and the vast majority would have devastating impacts for New Orleans. Worst case scenario appears to be the GFDL with its near 150 mph winds and approach from the southeast. This has the potential to be devastating. I think this will follow a GFDL-like track and move to the left of the NHC track albeit not by much, since the GFDL has been accurate with this wsw jog so far.

The Gulf Coast offices particularly MOB and LIX need to start advertising this big time because somebody is gonna get rocked.

Does anyone know where to find the FSU super ensemble progs online? In general but also for hurricane winds/mslp?

...Alex Lamers...