nickgrillo
EF5
Well, it appears that tomorrows events will be soley dependant on how well the showers will clear out in the morning. Along with the fact their could be some clouds hanging around/WAA being a potential limiting factor for some of the threat area... Which primarily includes eastern IA, northern/central IL, southern WI and possibley even western lower MI. Deep-layer shear appears to be pretty strong across eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI, with >45kts in the warm sector. In additon, low-level shear appears to be quite strong in northern IL/southern WI (>350 M2/S2). NAM forecasts >3500J/KG of sbCAPE across the area forementioned... So, as for supercell / tornado prospects - it all depends on cloud cover/lingering morning showers. We have extreme instability, good moisture pooling, strong wind fields, etc., we shall see...
At any rate, the day appears pretty favorable... We just need to get rid of the cloud cover, so we can get insolation/instability. I expect the genesis region to be in eastern IA/western IL in the mid-afternoon, with the main convective mode being supercells (...with tornadoes, especially along any OFBs), possibley transitioning into a line, traveling across the rest of the lakes before weakening by late night THUR.
At any rate, the day appears pretty favorable... We just need to get rid of the cloud cover, so we can get insolation/instability. I expect the genesis region to be in eastern IA/western IL in the mid-afternoon, with the main convective mode being supercells (...with tornadoes, especially along any OFBs), possibley transitioning into a line, traveling across the rest of the lakes before weakening by late night THUR.