7/9/06 FCST: MI

[rdale]

Not the best bet for storms tomorrow around here but haven't had anything to post on in a while... Morning convection / leftover clouds are my biggest worry. If we don't have to deal with that, and can take advantage of nice wind profiles, it wouldn't surprise me to see a nice line develop and/or some rotation in the afternoon and evening. Directional shear is good, but speed a little on the light side for me.

 

[rdale]

Gonna pull my miniscule chance out of this one... Winds won't do much if moisture not present, and the winds look even weaker now. Watched a few nice little complexes form north of Lk Superior earlier today, but upstream too dead for me to think anything will happen around here. Up north things look better organization-wise, but still nothing that leads me to believe there's a reasonable risk of svr.

Where's my delete option ;>

 

[rdale]

It had a big line of storms across WI yesterday with the initial boundary but as noted before that stayed well to the north in Canada. I'm just not seeing the moisture to validate a SLGT, especially the southern part. This looks more like a "SEE TEXT" to me ;>

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm watching that area of vorticity swinging around the main upper level low, it should be making it's way through WI and lower MI later today. I am also concerned about moisture down here in southern lower MI, td's barely breaking 60F. In northern lower MI, td's already sitting in the 63F-66F range, so no problems up there. Hopefully the sfc moisture to the west and southwest can advect into areas further south.

Wind fields also not looking as good as they did, but not horrible either. If we can get some of that sfc moisture in here combined with good heating, and that vort lobe swings through at the right time... We should see a few good storms from southeast WI into southern lower MI. Not willing to place any bets though.

 

[rdale]

Nice looking hodo's across southern MI/WI from TAMDAR, but soundings continue with the not-very-moist trend. My WRF looks similar to the NAM with a line of storms sagging south through I-96 after 00Z but nothing I'm excited about...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, today is on the "backburner" for me. I'm not planning on chasing, or even monitoring things excessively (as I do for days that have better threats)... Today is just one of those days where I will check the VIS every hour or two and see what's going on.

Temps are really warming up nicely, but moisture still looking a little anemic, mainly from LAN to MTC... Areas west, east, north, and south of that line appear to have td's up in the low to mid 60's. Central lower MI appears to be in a dry "bubble" if you will.

 

[rdale]

"The 4.5km WRF which has done reasonably well with convection this summer"

But horrible in this setup yesterday...