Mark Farnik
EF5
Happy Fourth of July everyone!
Well, there looks to be an interesting setup this afternoon and evening for the Central/Southern High Plains from the Nebraska Panhandle all the way down to around Lubbock, TX. This area is under Slight Risk. An excerpt from the SPC's 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook:
...CNTRL HI PLNS TO OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HI
PLNS LATER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MTNS
AND CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE. ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER PLAINS...AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL
WY...CNTRL CO AND NRN NM.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND
30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE STORMS MOVE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS BY
EVENING. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE E INTO WRN KS...THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SSE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. THESE
CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
Currently the SPC has eastern Colorado outlined under 5% risk for tornadoes, which has me slightly concerned because of all the festivities today. They also have us hatched with 25% large hail probabilities.
The Denver AFD also reflects concern over the storms that could form later today:SHORT TERM...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY
CONCERNING BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD ONE SEVERE STORM ROLL SOUTHEAST THROUGH JULESBURG OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BETTER
SHOT OF MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONSIDERING
STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BETTER DAY 2 SCENARIO WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY SETTING UP A
DENVER CYCLONE. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS BY MID AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD YIELD CAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN
THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS TO 2000-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS.
SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS 0-6KM
SHEAR IS NEAR 20 M/S. THERE IS EVEN A RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH AND EAST
OF DENVER.
Dewpoints as of 8:00 a.m. are 56 at Akron, 51 at Greeley and 57 at Burlington, which is unusually high for the eastern plains of CO. There is a considerable dewpoint dropoff west of Greeley (only 41 at DIA; now that is a drastic difference in a short distance; I believe the term is a dewpoint depression. Correct me if I'm wrong, please, I am an amateur forecaster. ) These dewpoints almost always only occur when we are going to have a severe weather outbreak. Where I live(20 miles north of Fort Morgan) it terribly humid and low, moist gray stratus deck is beginning to break up already. With high's in the mid 80's and little if no capping present, there could be a few explosive, potentially tornadic supercells over much of eastern CO today, later forming a south/southeastward propogating MCS that will race towards southwestern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles with damaging winds, very heavy rains and large hail. I'm worried, to be frank. Why couldn't this have waited till tomorrow so all of us Colorado chasers could go after these potentially very impressive storms? :x Oh well, LOL. Feel free to post your comments on this developing situation. Everyone stay safe today and God Bless America! :!:
Well, there looks to be an interesting setup this afternoon and evening for the Central/Southern High Plains from the Nebraska Panhandle all the way down to around Lubbock, TX. This area is under Slight Risk. An excerpt from the SPC's 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook:
...CNTRL HI PLNS TO OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HI
PLNS LATER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MTNS
AND CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF WY/UT IMPULSE. ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER PLAINS...AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL
WY...CNTRL CO AND NRN NM.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND
30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE STORMS MOVE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS BY
EVENING. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE E INTO WRN KS...THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SSE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. THESE
CLUSTERS MAY POSE A RISK FOR WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
Currently the SPC has eastern Colorado outlined under 5% risk for tornadoes, which has me slightly concerned because of all the festivities today. They also have us hatched with 25% large hail probabilities.
The Denver AFD also reflects concern over the storms that could form later today:SHORT TERM...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY
CONCERNING BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD ONE SEVERE STORM ROLL SOUTHEAST THROUGH JULESBURG OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BETTER
SHOT OF MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONSIDERING
STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BETTER DAY 2 SCENARIO WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY SETTING UP A
DENVER CYCLONE. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS BY MID AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD YIELD CAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG IN
THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS TO 2000-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS.
SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS 0-6KM
SHEAR IS NEAR 20 M/S. THERE IS EVEN A RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH AND EAST
OF DENVER.
Dewpoints as of 8:00 a.m. are 56 at Akron, 51 at Greeley and 57 at Burlington, which is unusually high for the eastern plains of CO. There is a considerable dewpoint dropoff west of Greeley (only 41 at DIA; now that is a drastic difference in a short distance; I believe the term is a dewpoint depression. Correct me if I'm wrong, please, I am an amateur forecaster. ) These dewpoints almost always only occur when we are going to have a severe weather outbreak. Where I live(20 miles north of Fort Morgan) it terribly humid and low, moist gray stratus deck is beginning to break up already. With high's in the mid 80's and little if no capping present, there could be a few explosive, potentially tornadic supercells over much of eastern CO today, later forming a south/southeastward propogating MCS that will race towards southwestern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles with damaging winds, very heavy rains and large hail. I'm worried, to be frank. Why couldn't this have waited till tomorrow so all of us Colorado chasers could go after these potentially very impressive storms? :x Oh well, LOL. Feel free to post your comments on this developing situation. Everyone stay safe today and God Bless America! :!: