7/28/10 FCST:MI/OH/IN/IL

[James Gustina]

Hey guys go easy on me, kinda shaky posting my first forecast on here

Overall tomorrow doesn't look amazing or anything but it holds a brief window of opportunity for the desperate(myself included). Looks like it'll turn linear pretty quick along the cold front as it shifts SE into Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio. Really weak directional shear on this one so that shoots the tornado potential right in the foot and the lapse rates are pretty poor so large hail=probably not. I'd say it'll be a wind event continuing into the evening. Looks like MLCAPE should break 1500 j/kg across Illinois into Indiana with CIN almost non-existent. Crapvection also looks like a good bet. The precip product is showing a large squall line spiking in central Indiana and portions of Ohio as it noses into a belt of moisture going right through Indianapolis(bow echo fun maybe? )

If I had to pick a target, I'd go with Van Wert, Ohio or maybe Defiance, Ohio.

Sorry if that's real sloppy and confusing. Give me your thoughts on it.

 

[rdale]

No harm in that forecast! Low-level winds aren't at all strong, there's not a lot of good wind convergence with the way the front is oriented, and a rocking line out west means plenty of clouds to start the day. Pretty conditional event staring at us for now...

 

[John Vandehei]

SPC shows LI's of -6 and CAPES up to 3,000 J/Kg over southern Michigan. Also starting to see some intensification of storms that moved across the Lake, especially up by Ludington. I agree, it's not looking too exciting, but I'm sure we can get a few severe storms out of this.

 

[James Gustina]

Well what I am starting to get iffy with is the lack of any CIN whatsoever in the southern portion of the risk. I'd guess popcorn, summer thunderstorms which'll clutter up into little clusters. Storm motion is also looking to be a little fast.

 

[rdale]

Kalamazoo sounding from a 12:16pm EDT flight shows very little winds to work with. http://skywatch.org/Capture.PNG

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looking good. That line developing near LAN is working with 40-50knts of effective shear according to SPC mesoanalysis, and good instability with MLCAPE of +2000J/KG. I suspect this line will continue to intensify as it moves east.

 

[rdale]

Soundings still not showing any winds of note. Good dose of lightning when the cell intensified near Charlotte, but low levels pretty weak and with lack of convergence hard to see a whole lot happening.

 

[James Gustina]

Well i should ammend my forecast. There's gonna be crapvection down here Got suckered out by an elevated benign cumulus field Looks like the one South of Battle Creek is getting ideas... Little bit of convergence on the tail end charlie's velocity. o.0

My Grlevel3 refuses to update so i'm stuck with wunderground XD

 

[John Vandehei]

It appears that a loosely organized line of storms may be trying to form behind the first line of storms, mainly from near Grand Rapids, all the way westward to near the Quad Cities. I agree with the previous posts. Parameters look weak. Looks like at best, some pulse variety severe storms. Main line of storms has already passed my location. Things were well below severe limits at my work, but I heard a spotter report (have a scanner here) relaying a report of a snapped telephone pole about a mile from my location. I don't see things getting much stronger than they are already. Thus, I'm thinking any severe reports will be quite localized.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Soundings still not showing any winds of note. Good dose of lightning when the cell intensified near Charlotte, but low levels pretty weak and with lack of convergence hard to see a whole lot happening.

The wind field (40-50knts at 500MB on DTX VAD) / shear values are good enough considering the instability in place, as indicated by the organizing line of convection.

 

[rdale]

The wind field (40-50knts at 500MB on DTX VAD)

DTX is a bit farther east than Kazoo Peak winds around here were in the 30mph range. Better surface gust would be expected in the SE part of the state with the much better instability, but I still would be shocked to see a long line of damage from this event.

 

[Robert Dewey]

DTX is a bit farther east than Kazoo Peak winds around here were in the 30mph range. Better surface gust would be expected in the SE part of the state with the much better instability, but I still would be shocked to see a long line of damage from this event.

I agree, I wasn't sure which soundings you were referring to. SPC mesoanalysis currently shows storms outrunning the best shear, so I suspect less organization.