HAltschule
EF5
Do I dare say that the Northeastern United States may end up being a better place to watch severe weather this year than the Plains? It's arguable but this year has been extremely active in the Northeast with numerous Severe weather episodes. Last night a thunderstorm erupted over Staten Island, NY and had so many cloud to ground lightning strikes that 30,000 CON ED customers were without power. Wires, trees and power poles were down everywhere b/c of direct lightning strikes.
Today the setup is more favorable dynamically than yesterday for severe weather. Currently a weakening MCS is moving across Central New York. An enhanced area of elevated convection is occurring north of Mohawk Valley in line with the MM5 and WRF model forecasts. While there will likely be some cloudiness and showers in the Eastern NY and Western New England through midday...instability, moisture and 70f dewpoints are in place. Breaks of sun should allow temperatures and enough CAPE to generate by early to mid afternoon to refire thunderstorms. The dynamics are in places with 250mb divergence providing great venting (50-65kts) and even a 400-500mb jetstreak of 50kts indicated by some model soundings. 0-6km shear values are 35-45kts this afternoon as a stronger vort max moves overhead.
So, in a nutshell...while instability will not be AS great as it had been the past couple of days, we sure do have plenty of tropical moisture, dynamics and lift in place to generate strong and severe thunderstorms this afternoon from Eastern New York into New England and south to NJ and Eastern PA. The best organized severe thuderstorms should form into lines of bowing severe storms...and possibly an MCS (as indicated by the WRF and the MM5 Stony Brook model). Wind damage should be the best bet from this event but isolated supercells from the Hudson Valley on East and South are possible with the more southerly component to the wind enhancing low level directional shear.
Lets hope the breaks of sun and re-firing storms materialize and we will be in for a fun day!!!!
PS: It looks like we will have a continued threat for severe thunderstorms Sunday-Monday and into the middle next week as the ring of fire puts the Northeast in a favorable NW flow pattern with a possible backdoor Cold Front adding to the mix.
Today the setup is more favorable dynamically than yesterday for severe weather. Currently a weakening MCS is moving across Central New York. An enhanced area of elevated convection is occurring north of Mohawk Valley in line with the MM5 and WRF model forecasts. While there will likely be some cloudiness and showers in the Eastern NY and Western New England through midday...instability, moisture and 70f dewpoints are in place. Breaks of sun should allow temperatures and enough CAPE to generate by early to mid afternoon to refire thunderstorms. The dynamics are in places with 250mb divergence providing great venting (50-65kts) and even a 400-500mb jetstreak of 50kts indicated by some model soundings. 0-6km shear values are 35-45kts this afternoon as a stronger vort max moves overhead.
So, in a nutshell...while instability will not be AS great as it had been the past couple of days, we sure do have plenty of tropical moisture, dynamics and lift in place to generate strong and severe thunderstorms this afternoon from Eastern New York into New England and south to NJ and Eastern PA. The best organized severe thuderstorms should form into lines of bowing severe storms...and possibly an MCS (as indicated by the WRF and the MM5 Stony Brook model). Wind damage should be the best bet from this event but isolated supercells from the Hudson Valley on East and South are possible with the more southerly component to the wind enhancing low level directional shear.
Lets hope the breaks of sun and re-firing storms materialize and we will be in for a fun day!!!!
PS: It looks like we will have a continued threat for severe thunderstorms Sunday-Monday and into the middle next week as the ring of fire puts the Northeast in a favorable NW flow pattern with a possible backdoor Cold Front adding to the mix.
