7/19/06 NOW: MN / IA / WI / IL

[Dustin Wilcox]

It looks like a bust forecast to me too!! Line of showers to the north which had some potential are slowly falling apart as they run into a capped environment. Latest RUC also depicts Zilcho convection-wise tonight. At this point, I would not be surprised at all if nothing happens. The window of opportunity appears to be closing.
[/b]

I was thinking the same thing, while I still am hopeing for something to develop quickly here before sunset it is looking like another day of great parameters wasted thats twice this year in NC IA. The parameters in the area are absolutly insane thats why I hesitate to give up all hope if something can become surface based it will absolutly be a sight to see 0-3km helicity values of 650, 150+ craven and cape values of >6000 are still in place but so are warm temps at 700 mb 13-15 degrees. Maybe if one wants to hang around and wait till later they maybe able to shoot some lightning.

 

[Mike Johnston]

You aren't being serious about them being deliberate about it, are you?
[/b]

All I can say is I HOPE they are not deliberate, but this problem has seemed to creep in more and more lately. You take a scan, sit there and take 4 scans in a row, and it is very obvious the energy is pointed in a certain direction, and most often it is in the direction of SUSPECTED convection. It has happened more often than a coincidence would suggest this season; any answers?

 

[Jarrod Cook]

All I can say is I HOPE they are not deliberate, but this problem has seemed to creep in more and more lately. You take a scan, sit there and take 4 scans in a row, and it is very obvious the energy is pointed in a certain direction, and most often it is in the direction of SUSPECTED convection. It has happened more often than a coincidence would suggest this season; any answers?
[/b]

The radar operators can't stop the beam and point it in any particular direction and just scan just that area if that's what you're implying.

 

[HAltschule]

I don't know about Iowa, but Missouri looks to be getting hit pretty hard with a Blizzard right now.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM BLIZZARD 1 E SILEX 39.13N 91.04W
07/19/2006 LINCOLN MO TRAINED SPOTTER
REPORTS OF 6 TO 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN.[/b]

 

[Joel Wright]

Small elevated cells mixed in now in far southern MN and far northern IA. Hopefully these will grow and backbuild SW into the atomic instability.

I just stepped out my back door and enjoyed the sight of towering cumulus in the eastern skies. Very high based, but still a wonderful site after staring at the screen all evening looking for ANYTHING.

 

[Mike Johnston]

The radar operators can't stop the beam and point it in any particular direction and just scan just that area if that's what you're implying.
[/b]

Of course they can!! I'm not sure how old you are, but the TV "weathermen" (not even mets) used to do that all the time back in the 1960's and 70's if they wanted to focus in on a particular area of concern. So, don't tell me an operator in this day and age can't do the same thing. So, it's not that they "can't" do it...it just seems very unprofessional.

If anyone has a logical, alternative explanation for all these extreme radial anomalies over mid-continent radars lately, I'm all ears.

 

[David Draun]

New MD is out from SPC for additional watches from Iowa to Chicago. Low level jet and warm advection appear to be increasing the threat for storms east of the warm sector. Tornado threat has diminished due to the inhibition of surface based convection.

"THREAT FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS NWRN IA
AND VICINITY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER E AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES."

 

[GPhillips]

Of course they can!! I'm not sure how old you are, but the TV "weathermen" (not even mets) used to do that all the time back in the 1960's and 70's if they wanted to focus in on a particular area of concern. So, don't tell me an operator in this day and age can't do the same thing. So, it's not that they "can't" do it...it just seems very unprofessional.[/b]

No, we can't. We have absolutely no capability to stop the 88D antenna to investigate individual storms. When the old radar network was replaced with the NEXRAD 88D's, this ability went away.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm wondering why SPC left a MDT risk with such a conditional threat... Warm temps still present at 700mb, although temps further east fall pretty quick. There is still quite a bit of sfc convergence, but 00Z sounding from Quad Cities indicates -500 to -1000j/kg of CINH - ouch.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yes - the LLJ and increasing upper support might give us something to do later tonight. I'm still concerned about the messy ongoing convection keeping the intensities down area-wide. Sitting in Valparaiso now, should have just gone to STL today as far as I've alreay driven. The RUC is giving us some returns up in WI overnight, but I'm not going that far. Hoping it shifts south a little. GFS is very generous with a nice big MCS here overnight.

 

[GPhillips]

Some pretty impressive supercells now ongoing across southwest/south central MN with large weak echo region on Watonwan county storm. Decent mid-level rotation as well.

 

[Dan Robinson]

..and we have initiation. Some 80mph value meso markers showing up on the southern MN cells on WxWorx.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Cell in Cottonwood Co. is now tornado-warned......hope some of the chasers stuck around and are on these.

THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTH OF WINDOM AT 925 PM
CDT.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Sups look to be developing in southern Minnesota at the moment, already a tornado warning as you can see above from Dick.

Convection also seems to be intensifying in north central Iowa.. may need to watch that area as well.

New tornado watch being issued for iowa and missouri per the new storms.

 

[MatthewCarman]

3 nice supercells in southern minisota not far from the Iowa boarder.The middle one I think it was is TOR warned. Also a severe warned cell in Iowa. Looks like a late night show now. Thanks for pointing out to me that is radar clutter. I thought about that but was unsure and didnt check for clouds.