7/19/06 NOW: MN / IA / WI / IL

[Robert Dewey]

Sun is going down pretty quick, so I don't think sfc heating will break the CAP. One thing to look at is the 700mb temps on the SPC mesoanalysis... We're talking about 17C at 700mb, and increasing. Thermal ridge axis appears to be quite solid and just to the west of the IA/MN region, which might just put a lid on things and chalk it up as a bust (well, a bust for IA... MN made out nicely earlier today, which is where I would have been if I was chasing).

If those temps aren't able to drop, I just don't see things going up.

 

[MatthewCarman]

The composite radar shows just the clouds in the air right and not just the base? Composite is showing a very tiny cell trying to get started in the spencer area along the boundary. The radar base just shows a shower. I probibly should rely on the composite radar and the cell is so small it is probibly just nothing. I figured that was a boundary that stretched from nw Iowa into central Iowa. Thanks for the help.

EDIT: Radar base is showing a storm trying to fire up in the spencer Iowa area along the boundary.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

live streaming, the gust front just moved through, the first has sound, getting real dark at busch staduim

http://www.stlcc.cc.mo.us/distance/media/roofcam.html
http://www.wustl.edu/webcam/

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Matthew, I don't think that's really a storm trying to form. Those returns have been there for a while, and I believe they're just false returns. I don't know what they're being caused by, but it doesnt seem to be anything interesting.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The composite radar shows just the clouds in the air right and not just the base? Composite is showing a very tiny cell trying to get started in the spencer area along the boundary. The radar base just shows a shower. I probibly should rely on the composite radar and the cell is so small it is probibly just nothing. I figured that was a boundary that stretched from nw Iowa into central Iowa. Thanks for the help.
[/b]

If you're talking about that "cell" near CKP/SLB, that looks more like clutter. VIS imagery shows little in the way of Cu over that area.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...t_big&itype=vis

Yeah, not even a cu field out there yet.

Report of a 92 knot wind gust in Macoupin County with a full sized pick up truck blown into a ditch.

2335 92 1 NW BUNKER HILL MACOUPIN IL 3905 8996 FULL SIZE PICKUP TRUCK BLOWN INTO DITCH. (LSX)

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Matthew, I don't think that's really a storm trying to form. Those returns have been there for a while, and I believe they're just false returns. I don't know what they're being caused by, but it doesnt seem to be anything interesting.
[/b]

Yeah, DMX/DSM radar has what looks like so bogus data in NW IA, which (a) makes it look like there may be some decent storms there, and (B) makes it look like a very long section of the OFB is being picked up by radar. However, at that range, the beam is almost 8000ft AGL, so I doubt it's picking up any outlfow (i.e. not picking up the OFB) at that long range. If you switch to FSD radar, you'll see some elevated showes continuing along the MN/IA border, but nothing substantial in nw IA. Oddly enough, the infected" radials seem to be almost 180 degrees from the storms near STL.

High CAPE and high shear mean nothing if surface-based convection isn't able to develop and sustain in that environment. As was the case on 6-20, it looks like we won't see surface-based activity in IA this afternoon and evening...

 

[John Wetter]

Jeff,

I would bet the radar beam is being ducted down the OFB and there's a wind farm there in Buena Vista County... I don't see one on Google maps, but it appears the map of that area is fairly old.

-John

 

[Jarrod Cook]

Those strong (stationary) returns in NW IA (near Storm Lake) are actually from the big wind farm out there I believe. There are some other blips in central IA that are probably the same thing. Lots of interesting features showing up on KDMX radar!

 

[Joel Wright]

Lots of elevated rain showers in far northern Iowa. Even some new storms popping in northern IL, which are also probably elevated in nature. I would expect the far northern IA ones to keep backbuilding over the next few hours and begin to become surface based on the southwest portion of the line.

The storms in eastern NE have seemed to have collapsed.

 

[HAltschule]

It looks like a bust forecast to me too!! Line of showers to the north which had some potential are slowly falling apart as they run into a capped environment. Latest RUC also depicts Zilcho convection-wise tonight. At this point, I would not be surprised at all if nothing happens. The window of opportunity appears to be closing.

 

[John Wetter]

Only thing different from this and 6/20/06 is that I'm not sitting in NW IA right now... I see on spotter network people are heading back home.

-John

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Damage reports of a tornado coming out from the city of St. Louis.

0740 PM TORNADO ST. LOUIS 38.64N 90.24W
07/19/2006 ST. LOUIS CITY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
TORNADO SPOTTED AT JEFFERSON BARRACKS AND TELGRAPH ROAD
WITH TREES BEING THROWN INTO POWER LINES.

 

[Mike Johnston]

What is going on with these ridiculous radial reflections on the radars over the mid-continent? If I didn't know any better, it almost seems like the operators are sitting there focusing their beams across a very narrow cross-section. I mean, the outflow boundary visible over central IA was there for all to see, but there is no need to focus the damn beam on it; that only distorts the true picture! And, by the way, guys, if you do it long enough it produces storm rainfall totals which actually don't exist...therefore contaminating national databases! What junk! Just let your radar function as it is supposed to. It seems to happen in Des Moines, Topeka, and Omaha in particular.

 

[John Wetter]

What is going on with these ridiculous radial reflections on the radars over the mid-continent? If I didn't know any better, it almost seems like the operators are sitting there focusing their beams across a very narrow cross-section. I mean, the outflow boundary visible over central IA was there for all to see, but there is no need to focus the damn beam on it; that only distorts the true picture! And, by the way, guys, if you do it long enough it produces storm rainfall totals which actually don't exist...therefore contaminating national databases! What junk! Just let your radar function as it is supposed to. It seems to happen in Des Moines, Topeka, and Omaha in particular.
[/b]

You aren't being serious about them being deliberate about it, are you?