Skip Talbot
EF5
The GFS and NAM have been quite consistent in plotting a nice dryline setup in the Dakotas extending down into NE on Tuesday the 13th. Dewpoints exceeding 70 are forecast to advect into North Dakota the evening before and morning of the event. The wind fields look very nice with backed surface winds across the northern plains, a 20-30 southerly knot low level jet, and broad westerly flow at 30-40 knots. I'd like to see the upper level flow a little stronger, but it looks like the shortwave forecast to eject around the bottom of that upper level closed low is going to be a little delayed, and might play a bigger role on the 14th. Still with 0-6km bulk shear of 40 knots and 100-200 m2/s2 1km SRH just ahead of the dryline, we should have more than enough speed and directional shear for sustained supercells. Strong to moderate instability should yield some robust updrafts, and capping doesn't look like its going to be a problem. The models have been consistent in eroding the cap by early afternoon and shown some storms firing in South Dakota.
This looks like it could be a great chase op with discrete, isolated supercells firing off the dryline in ND/SD by late afternoon. A few tornadoes could be possible on any sustained supercell. The slower midlevel flow and strong veering with height should give us real slow storms speeds as well. I don't think we'll see much of a chaser convergence either since its a weekday in summer and way up in the northern plains.
This looks like it could be a great chase op with discrete, isolated supercells firing off the dryline in ND/SD by late afternoon. A few tornadoes could be possible on any sustained supercell. The slower midlevel flow and strong veering with height should give us real slow storms speeds as well. I don't think we'll see much of a chaser convergence either since its a weekday in summer and way up in the northern plains.
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