7/1 FCST: Southern Plains

SPC indicating slt risk in their 1730z Day 2 update, and this is supported by the 0z ETA model run output... With 70 Tds common across and near the Red River area, SBCAPE is expected to approach 3000 j/kg by late afternoon pretty near the Red River corridor. An approaching 500mb jet max in the 40-45kt range from the northwest is expected to be approaching the western OK/eastern TX panhandle border by 0z. A 25kt 850mb low-level jet and southeast sfc winds will yield a favorable veering profile for supercells and possible tornadoes. In fact, the ETA is forecasting 0-3km helicity of >400 m2/s2 by 0z in the SPS to FTW area. This strong low-level shear, which is nicely juxtaposed with moderate-strong instability could result in isolated tornadoes with any supercells that can develop... I'm moving into a new apt tomorrow, so I don't think I can go anywhere. My virtual target at this time is Childress (for initiation), then points east and southeast of there...
 
Conditions still appear reasonably favorable for an isolated supercell or two in western Oklahoma this afternoon. The most favorable area for initiation appears to be in the Gage/Shamrock/Childress area. Unseasonably strong northwest flow of 30 kts, and a 20 kt southerly LLJ, should yield sufficient shear. The area will be recovering shortly from the morning MCS.

This may be my first July chase, if I can get a bit of work done and things still look good around 3pm.
 
I think I'd lean more toward the southern end of things, say around Hollis. The outflow boundary is starting to stall out along the western extent as it is encountering increasingly strong SW to WSW flow - moisture convergence is currently quite strong near Childress, and there is some congestus apparent in the vis with this. I like cells travelling SE along the western edge of the outflow, maybe a 4 hour drive from Norman though. Weak mid-level flow might get storms messy quick - so I'd hope for the early action to make something happen, maybe 2-4 pm time frame.

Good luck! Glen
 
The area around Childress and to the SSW continues to show signs of instability. Perhaps this will be the first good (IMHO) chance to chase since the mid June storms in CO. To bad I’m in Omaha. I would initially target Paducah and see what happens.
 
Yeah I am thinking the area around Childress a good place to be.....hey wait a minute, I AM in Childress right now! ALLRIGHT! :D
 
Looks like storms are still trying to form, but the shear remains pretty lame looking at the VAD from FDR, and surface winds are veering with time as per shifts in the orientation of the BL rolls apparent in the vis sat. While the wind direction at Childress is SE, it is at a measly 5 knots.

Glen
 
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