6/5/09 FCST: KS/CO/OK/NE

[Patrick Martin]

That mid level tropical moisture plume could substantially limit today's potential as it has a cirrus shield/mid level clouds totally blocking insolation into northeast CO.

In just the last 20 minutes went from cloud cover to bright sun at my house north of Denver. Vis sat animation is showing that whole cloud deck shifting east and I don't think it'll hold back much in the way of heating for today.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Same here Patrick. We get this type of cloud deck on the lee side of the Rockies often, and it usually shifts from west to east and breaks up. YAY!

Now then, per the RUC, southeastern WY is looking mighty interesting for a potential target today, as the moisture plume wrapping around the surface low gets slammed up against the eastern mountains in SE Wyoming. Composite induces are quite high, there's no cap, and cloud cover has been limited compared to northeast CO. Depending on how the next few RUC runs look, as of now, my preliminary target will be Cheyenne, WY. That way, I can split north, east, or southeast depending on where initiation takes place.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

No... Of the top of my head, the Lone Grove, OK day (2/10) had a 15% hatched.

No we had the April 26 HIGH risk day in W OK that was a 30% hatched! We've had at least 10 days this season with 10% or higher.

Anyway things continue to heat up nicely with 2000j of SBCAPE now near Wray, CO with pockets of 1500j over E CO. The clouds are breaking up nicely and it appears that based off the NAM and RUC the WY/NE/CO border region could be the play near/on the Cheyenne Ridge. I think today could get pretty interesting over this area during the afternoon and evening. Good luck to everyone and their mothers.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The parameters are coming together for a strong tornado IMO. EHIs are getting well past 6 into extreme north central CO and southeast WY, and the hodograph gets pretty long and curved at 00z at Cheyenne. The Laramie mountains I think will be the initiation point, but on days like today, there's always the possibility of something firing on the Palmer Divide. June 10, 2004 was supposed to be an eastern WY event, but the show of the day happened on the Palmer Divide. I may sit in northern Denver to keep my options open.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Based on the morning runs of the RUC, we will be targeting the Sterling, CO to Sidney, NE area later this afternoon. Forecast CAPE values are in excess of 3,000 J/KG by 18z, with 0-3km SRH approaching 250. However, based on comparisons between previous model runs and current surface analysis, surface moisture has been consistently overdone, so feel actual CAPE values may end up being somewhat lower than currently forecast. The simulated reflectivity breaks out convection in NE CO by 00z.

If low level winds back enough in a SSE direction, I would expect an enhanced area of SRH more favorable for the development of tornadic supercells. I would prefer to see low level wind fields be a bit stronger, but no doubt we'll probably see supercell development in this region later this evening. The 0-3 km EHI parameters are certainly looking favorable for this scenario, with sfc-1km VGP of 0.6 and best Theta-E axis just to the WSW of the Sterling area.

 

[Eric Treece]

June 10, 2004 was supposed to be an eastern WY event, but the show of the day happened on the Palmer Divide. I may sit in northern Denver to keep my options open.

June 10, 2004 was the Big Springs tornado day. May 10, 2004 was the Elbert County Outbreak you are thinking of. What a great day that was!

We are sitting in Brush now. I am not digging on this cloud cover here. It is clearing to the south and I think we are going to hang here for a little while and see how things develope.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Outflow Boundaries??

NEXRAD Radar in CO is clearly showing 2-3 boundaries in a triangular area bounded by Denver, Colorado Springs and Limon, CO. VIS SAT is also showing clouds (other than the mountain wave clouds) beginning to roll off the front range of the Rockies now.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I decided to sit out today at the last minute, but if I were out there right now, I'd be patiently waiting somewhere in a Logan-Sedgwick-Phillips counties, Colorado triangle, waiting patiently and trying not to bite on the early stuff ongoing in Wyoming. This area seems to be an area of where the best instability will meet the best LL shear between 22-02z per RUC, and has been consistent with breaking out precipitation in this area. Good luck to everyone today.