6/21/06 NOW: WI / MI / IN / IL / IA

[mikegeukes]

NWS GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE REPORTS THE FOLLOWING:

A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS BELIEVED TO HAVE OCCURRED NEAR SWAINS
LAKE AT 449 PM EDT. THIS IS IN JACKSON COUNTY MICHIGAN

Mike
http://mgweather.blogspot.com

 

[David Draun]

Alex it looks like your forecast could be verifying. A discrete cell approaching Janesville has been consistently intensifying, right near that SBCAPE gradient. The sun has really broken out here, and there is still about 4 hours of daylight left, happy solstice, everyone!

 

[Kathryn Piotrowski]

The storm near the town of Jerome MI looks like tornado is likey with that storm heading toward the town of Somerset MI at 4:30 PM.

KP.

 

[David Draun]

Two severe warned cells in Chicago now, looks like that's all this area is gonna get. The outflow boundary causing them is sinking south. I think it's just about done with on this side of the lake and I-80. As usual.

 

[Danny Neal]

currently on a cell just SW of mendota illinois, looks like its starting to get its act together but seems like all the storms out here pulse up for 20-30 mins and then die out, i should have stayed home Chicago is under a SVR DOH!!!!!

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Two severe warned cells in Chicago now, looks like that's all this area is gonna get. The outflow boundary causing them is sinking south. I think it's just about done with on this side of the lake and I-80. As usual.
[/b]

im thinkin the main stuff will stay south of Chicago metro but its still very warm and humid so a pop up storm is still possible.

edit, SPC just released mesoscale discussion 1283 calling for continued risk of severe storms especially over northern illinois, new watch likely needed

 

[David Draun]

Yes, that MCD mentions the boundary, but as I said it's moving south. The replacement watch will likely be shifted south of there. The southern Chicago suburbs could get some storms, but I believe points north will stay high and dry. I hope I'm wrong.

EDIT: #534 is now in effect. I hope it freakin verifies, SDS in full force here on the first day of summer!

 

[David Draun]

Yup, I called it. It's a big fat ugly Moderate Risk bust for Northern IL. The northern Cook county convective inhibiting dome is operating at optimum efficiency, lol. Watch cancelled 1 hour in.

Oh well, there's still an elevated MCS possible overnight, a little rain.

This moderate risk day has '06'ed, at least in this neck of the woods.

 

[Ed Boik]

Yup, I called it. It's a big fat ugly Moderate Risk bust for Northern IL. The northern Cook county convective inhibiting dome is operating at optimum efficiency, lol. Watch cancelled 1 hour in.

Oh well, there's still an elevated MCS possible overnight, a little rain.

This moderate risk day has '06'ed, at least in this neck of the woods.
[/b]

ya.. i hear ya. '06'ed is right.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, guess we didn't get that Great Lakes derecho afterall

Hope you caught something good by the state line, Nick... That's where the best stuff seemed to have been. Good call on the risk area Jeremy, I was sure that we were going to hit the 80F mark...

[sarcasm]Oh well, maybe next year[/sarcasm] (hopefully I'm just being sarcastic, but with the track record '06 has had, it could be fact).

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Yup, I called it. It's a big fat ugly Moderate Risk bust for Northern IL. The northern Cook county convective inhibiting dome is operating at optimum efficiency, lol. Watch cancelled 1 hour in.

Oh well, there's still an elevated MCS possible overnight, a little rain.

This moderate risk day has '06'ed, at least in this neck of the woods.
[/b]

KLOT has been saying since yesterday that the main risk is going to be south of I80

 

[nickgrillo]

I just got back from a 4.5hr crap chase around southeast MI... I left shortly after 4pm, when convection started to initiate along I94 towards the Marshall area. So, I take I94 west to the developing convection (along the warm front)... I reach Ann Arbor and start scanning on FM radio stations and finally hear a warning (a tornado warning for Calhoun county) about an hour to my west. Then, I hear radio station coverage (87.7? Not sure... Rob Dale was on it briefly, so he can probably say what station it was) which was, of course, generally unprofessional (with the person talking like a general idiot) and didn't do me any good. Warnings flying south of I94, and by then, I'm already past Jackson (with my only route south Hwy 127) and hear the Lenawee Co tornado warning -- which noted 'moving east at 45mph' (it felt like the March crap all over again).

I also rammed into the SVR-warned Jackson cell, which had a base a mile high (a piece of absolute crap) and inflow well above the now rain-cooled, stabilized boundary layer and gave me nothing but heavy rains. I'm quite interested in seeing any photographic evidence of the 'tornado touchdowns'. For that matter, someone was reporting a funnel somewhere around the Marshall area, and I heard Rob Dale say on the one station it was low-hanging clouds on the back side of the storm (IIRC), and the bases I saw were pieces of crap, and knowing the Michigan public (and spotters for that matter) -- they probably weren't tornadoes... So, I'd love to see pics!

So, there I went again... Giving the 2006 s##t season an additional $20 of my hard earned cash (and a couple additional hundred miles on my damn car) and a solid day of my life to monitoring and chasing this crap year. From 3-counties from my home, to North-f!#$ing-Dakota, this season has been absolute crap, and it shows no signs of stopping whatsoever (thank God I didn't drive to DMX yesterday like I originally planned) and after >14,000 miles of chasing this crap,

 

[David Draun]

KLOT has been saying since yesterday that the main risk is going to be south of I80
[/b]

Even south of I-80 with the exception of Will/Kankakee counties and NW Indiana, this day was total crap. Oh yeah, and a weak downdraft flipped a private plane at MDW. The clouds just didn't clear quick enough. Deep convergence was missing where the other parameters were nearly excellent. SDS is now in full force for me, even after some fun chases in May.

 

[David Draun]

An interesting feature on the Cleveland radar right now. If you animate the base reflectivity, you will see some light echoes moving westward toward the MCS, some as far as central PA. Look how far that system is pulling inflow from!

 

[Joel Wright]

"An interesting feature on the Cleveland radar right now. If you animate the base reflectivity, you will see some light echoes moving westward toward the MCS, some as far as central PA. Look how far that system is pulling inflow from!"

I think that's just the lowering cloud base showing up from the leading edge of the MCS cloud deck.