6/21/06 NOW: WI / MI / IN / IL / IA

[Alex Lamers]

Convection has already flared up this morning across Wisconsin

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm wondering if this stuff developing in IA is the activity for later today. The 12Z RUC shows that area of convection nicely as a vorticity maximum on the 500MB map. RUC shows that vort strengthening as it heads eastward into the Great Lakes by 21-00Z, with SBCAPE over 4000j/kg.

 

[David Draun]

SPC Mesoanalysis still shows strong capping all over the place. CAPE however is already at 3000 J/kg and it's only 9:30 AM! Ongoing convection is likely elevated above this cap Alas, in Chicago, we are getting rain and weak thunderstorms here, I thought I would wake up to 70 mph winds and tornado sirens given last night's potential, but no dice. Iowa convection looks interesting, but I think we need more heating. Given this morning's activity, there has got to be widespread outflow sitting out there. Let's kill that cap, lol! I may venture out locally toward Dekalb or something this afternoon.

 

[tom hanlon]

Starting From NW OH. Plan on heading West into IN probably 100 miles or so. There seems to be some clearing there and a little bit of sun would help. Chance of supercells looks a little more favorable, line is of courses still likely. Will head west and check for data in the next few hours. I expect things will be fairly early today.

The rain just ended here in Findlay.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[Eric Graham]

Just a few minutes ago SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for northern Illinois, northwestern Indiana, southeastern Minnesotta, Lake Michigan and Southern Wisconsin. I'm packing up and heading out in the next hour or so. Heading up to Remington, IN to a friends farm and hanging out there until initiation starts up and decide where to go then. Its sunny and heading towards 90 for the high today and the dewpoints look good. Im out for now.
Eric

 

[David Draun]

Severe Watch #527 just issued about 10 minutes ago for IL/WI. I was looking at the probablities of severe events for this watch. They seem high, wouldn't this warrant a PDS? Still a lot mid-level clouds all over the place, some CINH is eroding especially to the south. It looks like an elevated MCS producing isolated large hail will be the main event today. I'm not impressed, so I probably will not be heading out unless I see sunshine and explosive cumulus like it was on May 25th in MO.

 

[Terrence Cook]

With Cape exceeding 3,500 j/kg and LI's of -7 In East/North Central Illinois, I think I'll take the Watseka, Illinois area. Good luck to all, could be interesting!!!

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I don't think the motion on the Guthrie Co. storm is that preplexing...it's right along an outflow boundary, so individual cells are prob firing along it to the southwest while the cells move towards the east giving it the SE motion. Not sure if we will get a bow or anything significant out it (A little early to tell)...but the profilers and VADs around the area sure don't point towards it as the shear isn't all that great and the little Guthrie Co line looks to be just settled on the bndry (had to change what I said----confused myself on the location flipping back and forth from GE to internet maps)

 

[David Draun]

Well I just animated the SBCAPE/CINH map at SPC. The cap is weakening substantially, especially in W C IL. I thinks some serious initiation might be in the cards over the next hour or so. The sunshine is starting to break out here in the Metro area. I like our dewpoint depression of 8 degrees right now as well. Puffs of low level cumulus are showing up in the sky, but midlevel altocumulus and some stratus is still present. The air is juicy!

 

[tom hanlon]

Looks like we are gonna chase a squall line. Tryin to guess the southern end for some better tor chance. Will head to South Bend and then down from there on Rte 31. Plenty of instability inplace. See what happens when that line heads east.

IN/IL looks good but a little far from here. Ft wayne Indiana shows promise also, guess we will play the middle of that.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[Mike Johnston]

Well I just animated the SBCAPE/CINH map at SPC. The cap is weakening substantially, especially in W C IL. I thinks some serious initiation might be in the cards over the next hour or so.....The air is juicy!
[/b]

Parameters do look pretty impressive now for initiation over W Central IL this afternoon. Even more impressive, though, are indications for central and northern Indiana later this afternoon/early evening. Check out the 6-hour RUC. Nice pooling of theta-e, and SB CAPE of over 4,500 j/kg. Also, even lower LCL's, some decent low-level shear and 50-60 kt flow at 500mb crossing over 30-40 kt flow at 850mb at about a 45 degree angle.

Re: Alex's comment about the ESE motion on the Iowa storm, note this is consistent with the storm motion estimates for that area on the SPC's mesoanalysis. BTW, does anyone know if the SPC uses the Bunkers method for this estimate, or just the mean 0-6km wind?

 

[rdale]

18Z winds across southern MI are southeast - GFS & NAM both said we should be firmly in SW flow by now. RUC has a much more curved hodo at 21Z than any other model...

18Z soundings flown at DTX / GRB / ILX / DVN / APX - nothing spectacularly different.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Re: Alex's comment about the ESE motion on the Iowa storm, note this is consistent with the storm motion estimates for that area on the SPC's mesoanalysis. BTW, does anyone know if the SPC uses the Bunkers method for this estimate, or just the mean 0-6km wind?
[/b]

Looking at the 0-6km shear in the area, looks like they use Bunkers. However, Bunkers is for supercells and I don't think that those storms were very supercellular. The storms have looked like they have weakened, however the Clark Co storm has some hail spikes at the upper tilts, so it may have just come back up.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Now, I am sitting in Rochelle, IL with Kurt Hulst and Fabian Guerra...and we are waiting, just waiting. The air here is very humid, dew points are pretty high, but LCL's are ascending, unfortunatly....but north of here, they are still relativly low.....There are some cumulus fields developing around us....but we are right on top of that boundary here in IL....I still, am skeptical about tornadoes today...

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm still trying to decide which cluster of storms presents the biggest risk of turning into a significant MCS - the stuff now in WI, or that stuff that's been developing back in central IA?

The stuff in WI isn't looking real impressive, with little vertical development seen on the VIS loop. The stuff in IA is a bit different, with what appears to be good vertical growth in a linear fashion along an outflow boundary.

Now that the sun is out and things are rapidly becoming unstable across southern WI/ northern IL/northwest IN, we should see some development in that area, or so I would suspect.