6/21/06 NOW: WI / MI / IN / IL / IA

[nickgrillo]

I'm still in Detroit, and probably won't head west until things come a bit more clear (in the next couple of hours quite likely). Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows considerable moisture/deep-layer convergence across eastern WI (in an area of weakened CINH) with strong (SB/ML)CAPE already developing over much of the southern Great Lakes. Its nice to the see the deep-layer shear vector generally aligned normal to the boundary forcing ascent -- so the main mode of convection could likely be supercells across much of WI and perhaps into northern IL (upon first initiation) given the degree of deep-layer flow, with a casual upscale growth to a large-scale bow complex later this evening. I don't think it'll be much longer until things get going (as the strong 500mb shortwave perturbation and large-scale height falls continues to move into the area) as we continue to destabilize and boundary layer parcels are able to attain their LFCs as the CINH layer is breached (and updrafts interact with the sheared flow and begin to rotate and develop VPGFs which will contribute to further intensification).

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'll be leaving Champaign soon and likely just heading north into northern Illinois. Cu field is starting to develop up that way, and cinh is eroding quickly. I expect to either see new storms developing along the boundary in that area, or to see more extensive growth on the storms occuring in south central Iowa right now. Of course if this happens, I'm sure we'll just get a big bow echo to march across the northern half of the state so I'd much rather see some isolated (though breifly isolated) cells develop up north. Either way, looks like an active day. Should be several rounds of storms along this boundary across the moderate risk area continuing into tonite.

 

[David Draun]

Grunge and extreme humidity is the rule here right now. It looks like a line of showers is going to push through here in the next 1-2 hours. The satellite shows clearing and cumulus fields to the SW of here. I'm still thinking of heading out, but i need more convincing. The cap is doing something that it didn't do yesterday though, it's eroding! A forecast sounding says the convT is about 83 degrees, so we'll see.

EDIT: It's 87/71 here now, the clouds ain't stopping the heating. ConvT is about 91F on the NAM

 

[Ed Boik]

EDIT: It's 87/71 here now, the clouds ain't stopping the heating. ConvT is about 91F on the NAM
[/b]

93/65 and not a cloud in the sky in P-town. Plenty of haze, though...

Here stormy.. stormy.. stormy....

 

[Rich Dorfman]

Now that the sun is out and things are rapidly becoming unstable across southern WI/ northern IL/northwest IN, we should see some development in that area, or so I would suspect.
[/b]

We have had very little sun here halfway between Milwaukee and Madison and have been under a light drizzle for the past 1/2 hr.

Still, I see clearing on the radar about an hour to the west. With all this soup in the air, all it'll take is an hour or 2 of insolation.

 

[nickgrillo]

Some of the forecast soundings across southern lower MI (and northern IN) for the 00z timeframe are just georgous. The JXN (Jackson MI) and OEB (Coldwater MI) RUC forecast soundings for 00z are just awesome (click on the 06FH to the left), with strong deep-layer and low-level shear (and very large >3500j/kg CAPE progged by the late afternoon) supporting long-lived, organized convection -- and given the shear profiles (with enlarged and relatively-curved hodographs), I could still see isolated tornadoes being a threat even as far east as Detroit Metro by the late evening (with the strong mechanical mixing likely preventing boundary layer de-coupling and inversion development to a large enough extent to allow for surface inflow). While the profiles are generally unidirectional, there is plenty of low-level veering (pronounced boundary layer WAA profiles) which yields >200m2/s2 0-1km SRH by the 00z timeframe (albeit mostly SW sfc flow).

I will likely head southwest shortly (hopefully initiation will occur near the warm front in the next hour or so).

EDIT: Earl's RUC soundings were showing the 15z run (and it's now been refreshed to the latest 18z run) -- so please click on the FH06 and not FH09 like I said 10 minuites ago :lol:

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

i stand by my statements eariler, saying the mod. risk should be shifted south. I'm doubting more and more any severe storm threat from about a Grand rapids/Detroit line north. Temps still have not made it out of the low 70s across much of that area and the clouds are hanging tough. If anyone disagrees, could you post the reasons why, i would like more opinions, thanks.

 

[Scott Roberts]

Sitting at FlyingJ in Gary, IN with Eric Flescher, and feeling really good about being right where I am. MCD just issued for I-80 corridor for initiaiton within 1-2 hours and isolaed TOR risk. I like the end of the line advancing toward us from the west. But there are a few decent towers starting here. Problem, in my estimation, is the lack of cap. I'd rather be sseing just a bit of cap right now to let them bubble some ;-)

 

[Robert Dewey]

i stand by my statements eariler, saying the mod. risk should be shifted south. I'm doubting more and more any severe storm threat from about a Grand rapids/Detroit line north. Temps still have not made it out of the low 70s across much of that area and the clouds are hanging tough. If anyone disagrees, could you post the reasons why, i would like more opinions, thanks.
[/b]

The soundings out of PTK at ~00z show roughly 3000j/kg of CAPE with a sfc t of just 75F. Hodographs also looking very nice. Still, monster instability is present south of the state line with 5200j/kg being seen.

 

[nickgrillo]

The soundings out of PTK at ~00z show roughly 3000j/kg of CAPE with a sfc t of just 75F. Hodographs also looking very nice. Still, monster instability is present south of the state line with 5200j/kg being seen.
[/b]

Yeah, I agree... Current sfc analysis shows the warm front just south of I94 right now and curving east-southeastward (with the strongest low-level shear residing just north of the front in southern MI) with small cumulous fields now developing south of the front (check visible satellite imagery) with 3000-4000j/kg of SBCAPE already developed along and just south of I80 (per SPC mesoanalysis) with dramatically weakening CINH. I'm thinking of just heading west on I94 and checking data when I get towards Battle Creek. I don't neccessarily think I'll have to chase out of the state today (at least I'm hoping LOL).

I'm guessing SPC will go with a red box soon.

--> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/lfch.gif
lower LFCs in the region of developing Cu (and >3000j/kg CAPE and >45kt deep-layer shear) and enhanced sfc moisture convergence. I'm heading on I94 in a few minuites towards Battle Creek (I'll check data near I69, however).

 

[David Draun]

And here we go again... Storms will fire well to the south and east of my area once again. It's a broken record. Mesoanalysis shows that the risk shouldn't be ruled out to the north and west though. Now some good parameters shaping up near Rockford as LI is decreasing and some clearing about to begin. Lots of CAPE still out there. There is still some CINH to overcome, but perhaps the show is about to begin. I hope it ain't too far SE.

 

[Danny Neal]

sitting here in ottawa illinois right now, watching some towers to my west northwest , little blips on the radar starting to show up, looks like initiation is beginning, im concerned however about the MCD that i may be too far west to the isolated stuff but who knows, im interested to see what the 2000z outlook has to say

Edit: Spotters are being activated in la salle county to look out for this small storm, listening to net control for skywarn, i am currently sitting at rt 23 and I 80

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Tornado watch for SW lower michigan and Northern Indiana now up. New outlook puts the SE third of michigan in 10% tornado chance, mod risk also farther South and east, but no change to northern section.

Cell developing over the southern third of michigan at this time, with echo tops up to 35K on the forming storms.

 

[Eric Graham]

Currently sitting in Remington, IN at my friends farm mooching his wifi. It just topped 90 here and is very humid. Clouds are braking up which is letting more sun in. Watching the storms fire in Iowa looks like we're in line if they keep on the same heading. Just sitting and waiting now.

Eric

 

[David Draun]

The cap is nearly gone now! New development up in NW IL. Yeah, it's just a single cell right now, but this might be the begining of something. There is also substantial clearing out west before the line in IA. 84/70 here.