6/17/09 FCST: NE / KS / IA / MO/SD

[Ben McMillan]

I agree. Today is a great set-up. How often do you see CAPE values of 5000 plus at 15z in the morning? With a decent cap, things should fire more discretely at first so storms can take advantage of this incredible instability. The 12z NAM 6 hr precip can't project an easier chase. Storms appear to form over the I-80 corridor and move east. Targeting Grand Island to Lincoln and expecting to eventually drop south as the day progresses.

 

[Mark Sefried]

The U.S. 136 corridor from Red Cloud to Hebron NE and points a little south look absolutely primed this afternoon. I would not be surprised that spc upgrades the tornado potential a little more in thier next outlook over southern/southeastern NE. Good luck to everyone chasing today and be safe...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I would watch northern Iowa and southern Minnesota right along Interstate 35 for a sleeper area today, right around Albert Lea, MN and Mason City, IA. Looks like the upper level system responsible for yesterdays SD action will continue to drift east over this area. Substantial clearing has occured in the area, and a good convergence zone will set up by early afternoon.

I think you'll be watching a couple good supercells in southern MN and northern IA while you wait for initiation in the more impressive target area of southeast Nebraska. If I were chasing today, for ****s n giggles I might actually head to the area around Mason City, IA.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Its funny you say that, I was just coming on here to mention that. Already posted that in another forum calling Northern IA "the sleeper pick" today. Both EMC and NSSL WRF's break out precip around 21z to 23z, of course Im busy today to head out to NE otherwise I would rather do that but still could be a nice sup out here in my backyard.

 

[Steve Sempeck]

OAX Conference Call

OAX scheduling a conference call at 130pm. Will get the scoop and post for you all after that. Their local wording looks like around York, NE and SW for initial development for anything tornadic. Really pushing the derecho scenario and tennis baller's for later in E NE.

 

[Steve Sempeck]

MD for NCentral KS- S NE

MD just issued with red box coming here shortly for NCent & NE KS and SC NE. Topeka & Hastings wind profilers looking better. Looks like the show has already started W of Hebron, NE.