6/10/09 FCST:OK/KS/MO

[Brandon Lawson]

While not an exceptional chase day, the NAM is showing a small window of opportunity for some discrete storms in southwest Oklahoma. 4km WRF has a line of storms firing in northwest Texas, just south of the Red River, triggered by what I assume is the shortwave impulse that is supposed to pass through the region during the afternoon/evening. The boundary in central oklahoma should lift north as storms move into southwest Oklahoma and become more organized, shortly before congealing into a line.

In place, should be another batch of high CAPE (4000j/kg), steep lapse rates, good upper-level support coincident with an upper-level jet streak over southwest Oklahoma, and 40-45 knots of 0-500mb bulk shear. At the surface, low-level shear is only marginal, with stronger 850 flow further northeast towards the OK/MO border. However, 15-25 knot 850 winds should be, at the very least, adequate.

Biggest cons are the lack of backed low-level winds and stronger winds at that. I'm also not liking the saturated forecast soundings. Hail is the most likely threat, as the SPC has highlighted, but it may be possible to see a tornado or two before these storms trip over eachother and spawn another line for 2009. That or maybe I'm just desperate.

 

[Warren Faidley]

ATM: Looks like western Texas MCS will squash most (or all) organized tornadic possibilities further NE. The exception today being far SE Kansas in no-go chasing terrain. Looks like another curse of 2009 with poorly phased or lacking elements. What else could happen this year? Smoke from Mexico?

Looks like the only hope (a long shot) is west/SW of the MCS later today in western Texas if everything can recover and a strong dryline forms without pushing everything into the stabilization wake of the MCS.

W.

17:30z update:

Target refined to portions of far SE CO, NW TX/OK, panhandle, far SW KS. Outside shot... but current surface data, SPC mesoscale., sat., et al., supports a risk within a good chase region ATM.

W.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...What else could happen this year? Smoke from Mexico?

Let's not jinx something already severely jinxed ;-)

The 5% tornado probability was shrunk down to a smaller area in extreme SE Kansas / NE Oklahoma (close to or in the trees).

If you can stomach chasing in this area, good heating is taking place with dewpoints around 70 F making this area the best bet for discrete storms today.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Won't the approaching MCS ruin the chances, or do you think there is time for discrete cells to fire beforehand?

Bryan

 

[CZandbergen]

The 18Z RUC run tries to break out a few discrete cells to the NE of Tulsa starting around 23Z. Looking at GR3 it looks like the MCS ought to be in the area by then so I am suspect of that. That said the TUL WFO has been talking about it in their outlook all day so something may fire out there.

 

[Darren Stephens]

I still believe that there is time for discrete cells to form in the SE Kansas / NE Okla area before the MCS catches up to it. Dewpoints are into the 70's and cape values are approaching 5000