6/10/08 FCST: KS/MO/IA/NE/SD/WY

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The GFS has been hinting at a classic June warm front setup across the central Plains next Tuesday.

GFS is showing a pretty strong warm front sitting along the KS/NE border stretching into N MO and into far W IL. Deep moisture and temps in the mid 80s should lead to extreme instability from NC/NE KS into N MO. A S/SSE 35-40 knt. LLJ over a wide area with it increasing significantly after dark as well as SW flow at the mid levels will be a nice change after yesterday's total bust. The only concern is the cap which is the usual problem especially this time of the year. If it pans out however NC/NE KS, extreme S IA, N MO, far W IL could see a significant severe weather event along the warm front.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Couldnt agree more.

GFS is breaking out high QPF values.. I hadn't really looked mid range until today, so I will need to look at D Prog/DT tonight and see what the models have been doing with it..

Just through a quick look at some soundings at 00z Wed (108 hr GFS) I see lots of CAPE, very low LCL's nice Helicity and good long curved hodographs..

Stay Tuned.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Since this thread is not too busy, thought I'd throw in Western Kansas into today's forecast.

Looking at the latest SPC svr. forecasting pages, it appears there is a slight chance of a cell or two breaking the cap and going bonkers. Srv. indexes are only getting better with CAPEs over 2k. and increasing RH/dryline diff. Shear not too crazy, but enough. CU field is forming over NW Texas panhandle through the OK panhandle into western KS. Conv. temps are in the 90's and some areas should be there before 21z.

Would not be surprised to see a slight risk by 20z.

W.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I'll echo what Warren has posted. LCLs will be a bit on the high side for tornado potential but the prospect of one of the best photogenic LP to classic motherships of the year is decent.

The RUC does break the cap, and have you ever seen an isolated supercell with a hook on a precip forecast?

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'll take a 1k foot tornado over a 200 ft one (as of late) any day.... lol. Very nice cu field north of Dumas right now as I'm heading north. Some cu going into mini-me-tower mode. Good sign by 19z.

W.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

There's also a short wave it looks like on water vapor imagery (right over south central CO), and it's showing up on the models, that will be going right over western KS at 00z.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Epic battle tonight of NSSL 4km WRF vs NAM-WRF... who will fire the the loaded gun?


NSSL 4km WRF: 10pm forecast sounding for DDC and simulated reflexivity (no precip, -158 MLCINH)

NAM-WRF: 10pm forecast sounding for DDC and NCEP derived simulated reflexivity (-76 MLCINH):