6/10/04 FCST: Plains

[Billy Griffin]

I would watch the TX panhandle today !!! That's a damn fine dry punch pushing in with Tucumcari at 79/28 and Amarillo at 75/65 !!!
I'm here in Dumas, so a "close to home" chase for me would be just fine and dandy.

Good luck to all today. I have a good feeling today about the panhandle. Maybe one or two loners with good structure.

Shane... if you find yourself heading this way towards the afternoon, I'll be glad to chase partner with you.

 

[Shane Adams]

Thanks Billy, but I'm gonna have to sit this one out regardless of having the day off...May killed me financially, still feeling the repercussions :wink:

Also thanks to Bryce Stone for offering to take me along today.

Oh, for a return to the day when I can chase through the end of June :roll:

 

[Jay McCoy]

Decided to play the Tx panhahdle into SW kansas today since the storms will be islolated and I didnt want to go that far north. I think with the temps in the 90's the cap should break and we have a nice dry punch coming out. nothing like some dryline storms in June to get you up and running. Also should be a few outflow boundaries floating around from all that convection yesterday in Co., Ks.,Ok., and north Texas.

Sorry you wont be getting out Shane. If I was closer I would come drag your a$$ out here with me and Kanani.

 

[Fritz Kruse]

Western Nebraska

Virtual Chase Target: Tyron, Nebraska (30 nw of North Platte)

Positives:
-in High Cape area, 2500 J/kg
-in theta-e axis
-40 to 45kt at 500 mb
-backed surface winds northeast of sfc low
-in area of 700 mb UVV's
-just east of sfc dryline

Negatives:
- not much of a mid level cap

Discussion: warm 700mb level air moving up from ern CO, should move into wrn NE this aft
helping to put a cap on convection, however as the mid level cooling comes out, then the
area should explode into lots of storms. Think initiation along dry line, then moving into
deeper moisture. Strong deep layer shear looks good for some tornados. Another area
that looks good to me is North Platte, however as you go north the temp/td spreads are
lower and the surface backing maybe better, but the cap is weaker.

Virtual Chase because I am working shift at Dodge City

 

[Kelley Austin]

Billy G.
Shucks!!! Wish I lived closer. Don't think I can make it out there in time for today's action. I'm just a little too far East by about 5 or 6 hundred miles. Good luck today, and stay safe. By the way thanks for the E-Mail response.

Kelley

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Took the middle ground west and am in Broken Bow thinking about heading sw towards the area west of North Platte. There looks to be a very weak outflow boundary around west of North Platte going wsw into ne CO and stretching ene into Nebraska a ways. Everyone and their dog is going to be there. All this way from far east Nebraska and I've not see a single chaser. Not a single chaser in this library.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Well Mike, I'm sitting in North Platte right now and other than a small group from Indiana in Ogallala, I haven't seen anyone here, either! I'm going to hang in the North Platte area for a bit and see what happens..

 

[Tim Marshall]

SW NE

At noon, I am at the Pioneer Library in Colby, KS. Looks like SW NE is the play for me today. I like the region of backed winds at the apex of higher temps to the southwest and higher dewpoints to the southeast. I will drift north to the Benkleman area. I do expect supercells as far south as the TX panhandle, but I believe the cloud bases will be much higher there due to the larger T/Td spreads. I don't want to travel north of I-80 due to the limited road network. I plan to stay in Lincoln, NE tonight for a possible chase into Iowa tomorrow. It also looks like there will be chasing Saturday in eastern Kansas -on my way back to Dallas. TIM M.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

A Torn watch (425) has just been issued for NE and SD - better start a NOW thread some one please ...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Hey Tony I'm on the other side of the wall right now....lol. I just got here.

Mike

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Mike and Tony - according to the SPC Meso - the cap is zero! Cells have fired to your NW and now a vexed question? do you move or wait for new devlopment?

BTW I am virutal chasing from 5000 miles away...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wait. Maybe even drop south but this little boundary showing up on sat is kind of intersting right over us. Dryline in e CO starting to push east now, should help keep our winds in this area backed.

Maybe we should be going west down I-80 too....lol.

 

[B Ozanne]

Cell blowing up over NW Colorado. Right over I-76 near Sedgwick. Looks like an old boundary or maybe the dryline ( I should probably look at some obs). It's time for a NOW thread

 

[B Ozanne]

1900z RUC is analyzing a couple of dry punches. One over extreme northern TX/OK panhandle and the other near Goodland, KS.

Edit: You can even see the punch/dryline in the visible with a line of cumulus extending from KS, OK, and TX

 

[Melissa Moon]

Of course, I am posting this a bit late since things are already firing out west.

If I could have gone out today, I would have picked an area from North Platte, NE to Gothemburg, NE. I like what the 500mb winds are doing here; they're decent, and they are on the northern end of upper-level divergence. Having looked at actual data, the area has cleared with a nice little CU field seeming to develop, and the surface obs seem to be decent (though I would ideally like the moisture to be a little bit higher).

Good luck to everyone out today!