5/9/09 FCST: KS/OK/TX/NE

[Adam Lucio]

I know its a week out but the 12z GFS paints a nice chase day especially across southern Kansas. Since were at the 7 day threshold I thought I would open up the floor for what will hopefully be Mays 1st good chase opportunity.

500s out of the WSW along with nicely backed surface winds will create great directional shear. Speed shear doesnt look too insane but enough to get the job done and keep storms from moving 50+ Theres also a nice 3000+ CAPE bullseye with Tds in the low 70s and surface temps in the 80s. The moisture doesn't look too shallow either at leaste up to 850. Surface low lower than 996mb Over CO.

Took a peak at a sounding near Great Bend and the hodo had a nice big curve to it.

Wishcasting at this point I know so you dont have to call me out on that, but Ill be watching this closely with an eager eye with hopes it verifies. Its go time.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I've been watching this for a couple days now. Moisture was better and farther north in previous runs than last nights 00Z. I don't like low amplitude waves like this one, but it makes directional shear looks great. The surface low is way the hell up north in like Wyoming, which is something I'm not a big fan of either.

On the other hand each run has shown strong 850mb winds (up to 40kts) and a sharp dryline over the Texas panhandle up to southern Kansas. The good moisture in the latest run doesn't make it very far north either. The front associated with the preceeding trough should own push moisture into Texas, so it won't have a long ways to go, but currently it is showing less than 24hours of good moisture advection. The consequence of this is that the stronger mid level flow is north of where the better moisture is. Regardless deep layer shear appears to be more than adequate for supercells south along the dryline.

What I'd really like to see is a deepening, high-mid amplitude trough over the Rockies. I am itching for one of those setups where everybody knows it's going to be a tornado outbreak. Not the goofy nontypical ones, but a classic dryline, warm front, triple point scenario. Something similiar to May 4, 2003 would be nice lol.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I guess the good news is that the NCEP Ensembles have been consistent with establishing SW flow beginning on May 10, (192 hrs) for a prolonged period. The NECP models did a great job of forecasting last week's prolonged period of severe weather. Several NWSFO's have also noted possible changes in their recent discussions.

W.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Not much say at this moment as even SPC's "day 4" was taken DOWN for May 9. Looks like maybe a "slight risk" type setup in Arkansas and eastwards in the trees at best.

 

[Jared Farrer]

Sat is pretty much gone now. Except a small outside chance down in TX.

Seems to me this whole pattern has been strange, and the models are just sucking right now. I almost want to wait until this whole strange thing leaves and we get a different pattern going. Unless your in TX right now or damn close no sense in banking on anything until next week. Its weird how TX, OK and the south have been getting everything so far. Last year it was all AR until late May. I mean it has been pretty active just all seems to be the south.