Darrin Rasberry
Frustrated beyond capacity, that's my thoughts. Of course I planned something with friends 'till five and just had the howling hammer of judgment ("you better not, Darrin Thomas!") planted on me courtesy of said six friends.
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Frustrated beyond capacity, that's my thoughts. Of course I planned something with friends 'till five and just had the howling hammer of judgment ("you better not, Darrin Thomas!") planted on me courtesy of said six friends.
Alex Lamers
EF4
Well, as usual I have a debate going on in my head and I'm teetering on the fence about driving for maybe an hour or an hour and a half to the south just to watch some storms.
Purcell profiler doesn't look terribly impressive attm with very weak flow in the lowest 3km and not very much veering:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/prc_wp.gif
Still, there are more southerly winds down close to the Red which would probably contribute to a little more shear. Straight line hodographs tend to favor splitting supercells.
SPC mesoanalysis does have a bullseye of 250 m^2/s^2 0-1km SRH over Carter and Love Counties in SC OK. If that keeps up, I'd have a hard time not heading out. It's a bit perplexing because none of the forecast soundings have this forecast. That's probably due in part to the models having winds out of the west at 5-10 mph. OK Mesonet has them south at 12 G17 in southern Love County right now.
One has got to wonder if this wind flow pattern will persist even when the cold front is nearly on top of the area later this afternoon. I'll probably be making the call at 2pm. Target would be Marietta, OK with an ETA of 3:45pm if I head out which would put me in place before or right around initiation time.
AJL
Purcell profiler doesn't look terribly impressive attm with very weak flow in the lowest 3km and not very much veering:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/prc_wp.gif
Still, there are more southerly winds down close to the Red which would probably contribute to a little more shear. Straight line hodographs tend to favor splitting supercells.
SPC mesoanalysis does have a bullseye of 250 m^2/s^2 0-1km SRH over Carter and Love Counties in SC OK. If that keeps up, I'd have a hard time not heading out. It's a bit perplexing because none of the forecast soundings have this forecast. That's probably due in part to the models having winds out of the west at 5-10 mph. OK Mesonet has them south at 12 G17 in southern Love County right now.
One has got to wonder if this wind flow pattern will persist even when the cold front is nearly on top of the area later this afternoon. I'll probably be making the call at 2pm. Target would be Marietta, OK with an ETA of 3:45pm if I head out which would put me in place before or right around initiation time.
AJL
Chris Lott
EF4
I do agree the Red River is the place to be today. Also might see a storm form on the front/dryline intersection in parts of W TX. RUC showing CAPE 5000-6000 j/kg along the Red River with LI's through the roof. I believe the cap is gone by late this afternoon, and the front should be the focus for some monster sups.
Alex Lamers
EF4
Well the instability looks great. It feels like a sauna outside. Directional shear and hodographs leave something to be desired, but I'll still be heading out. Classes are finally over for the semester. Why not get in one last chase before exam week?
Targeting Marietta.
AJL
Targeting Marietta.
AJL
Brad Nelson
EF1
We are currently headed towards Davis, OK, just off of I-35 to the south of OKC. Very hot and humid airmass ahead of the cold front that is now moving through the Norman area. This boundary is clear depicted on the TDWR radar TOKC. Just check out the loop. Nice, bubbling CU field ahead of it as well and already starting to see some darker and flatter bases on some of these. Off the RUC Mesoanalysis, already depicting over 4500 j/kg of CAPE nosing into south-central OK and the GFS forecast sounding for 00Z in ADM has *gasp* 5174 j/kg of SB CAPE. RUC sounding has a value at 4682 j/kg. Talk about your high CAPE/low to moderate sheared day! Shear values are not all that impressive but there is some good turning with height, but the problem is the very weak inflow winds. Storms should have good access to clean inflow air though with storm motions off to the southeast around 20-25 mph. One thing I'm worried about is that storms are going to be undercut by the fast moving boundary with much more stable air behind the front before storms can really get going. But the boundary does stall out somewhat along the Red River this evening. LCL's will be lowering nicely by early this evening as well. Some uncertainties today, like any day, but I'm optimisstic.
Greg Johnson
Heading south from Atoka towards Durant; some of the soundings around here look great! Any particular reason why Marietta? We're just getting to know this territory; any geographical features that help development, Alex? Durant's 18z looks way better than Ardmore on the RUC (03h looks good to me, the 06h isn't up yet). Just hoping to learn a bit from someone who lives in the neighbourhood.
Alex Lamers
EF4
No particular reason. I want to be south of Ardmore (the Arbuckles are bad chasing territory, way too hilly). I also don't want to cross the Red River just yet, and I don't want to get too far away from I-35. It's a little flatter and more open down in Love County and a little bit west and east from there.
Other than that, also headed south on I-35 attm. Cu field looking more promising down in SC OK. MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis up to 4500 j/kg with little to no cap remaining.
AJL
James Siler
EF3
Won't be able to head out from the Norman area till 5:30pm but I am hoping to catch up to anything that may form. As I am still trying to learn forecasting I do understand CAPE and with what I see being forcaseted between 4000 and 5000 in front of the front, I feel the red river area as well will be a good shot. I hope I can make it in time to see something.
Doug Raflik
EF3
Looking at a loop of OKC radar in clear air mode, I see a boundry coming in from the east, looking to collide with the front coming in from the NW. Looks to happen a little east of I-35.
Doug Raflik
Doug Raflik
