Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target for May 8, 2008
Chase target:
Garden City, KS.
Timing and storm mode:
High-based supercell storms should initiate by 6 PM CDT. During the overnight hours, a large MCS will track along and north of the KS/OK border.
Discussion:
Lee low pressure will organize in the OK panhandle late in the day Thursday in response to forcing in the left-exit region of a 100kt H3 streak. During this period, upslope SFC flow and slow moisture return will result in weak SFC-based instability generally W of US-283 in NWRN OK and KS. Storms will fire first over the front range of the Rockies during the afternoon hours. SFC-based convection should initiate near Garden City, KS between 01-02Z as SFC temperatures warm into the low-80’s and a compact wave moves through the panhandles. During the evening, forcing will shift south as the right-entrance region of the ULVL jet focuses over the I-40 corridor in WRN OK. Convection will become elevated as the BL decouples and a 45kt SWRLY LLJ noses into a developing MCS. Storm motion vectors and upstream growth into a LLJ suggests a ESE movement of 30 kts; however, establishment of a cold pool will likely result in accelerated EWRD movement of the system.
- bill
11:00 PM CDT, 05/07/08
Chase target:
Garden City, KS.
Timing and storm mode:
High-based supercell storms should initiate by 6 PM CDT. During the overnight hours, a large MCS will track along and north of the KS/OK border.
Discussion:
Lee low pressure will organize in the OK panhandle late in the day Thursday in response to forcing in the left-exit region of a 100kt H3 streak. During this period, upslope SFC flow and slow moisture return will result in weak SFC-based instability generally W of US-283 in NWRN OK and KS. Storms will fire first over the front range of the Rockies during the afternoon hours. SFC-based convection should initiate near Garden City, KS between 01-02Z as SFC temperatures warm into the low-80’s and a compact wave moves through the panhandles. During the evening, forcing will shift south as the right-entrance region of the ULVL jet focuses over the I-40 corridor in WRN OK. Convection will become elevated as the BL decouples and a 45kt SWRLY LLJ noses into a developing MCS. Storm motion vectors and upstream growth into a LLJ suggests a ESE movement of 30 kts; however, establishment of a cold pool will likely result in accelerated EWRD movement of the system.
- bill
11:00 PM CDT, 05/07/08
