5/7/04 FCST: IA & other

[Amos Magliocco]

Re: today's forecast

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco

In the midlevels, I analyzed a small disturbance currently over eastern CO and might have spotted the same on the vapor loop. This is weak if it's actually there, or it's possible I've analyzed the Rocky Mountains--LOL. If somebody with more upper air analysis experience for this area could weigh in, I'd appreciate it. .

Cool. This will definitely help out if the RUC's advertised surface trough appears. Now to get all these features perfectly timed like a Troy Aikman to Michael Irvin post pattern--LOL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 7 2004

ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH STILL MODEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...FEEL THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...&hours=hr06hr09

Interesting to note how fast the model moves that High to our east hopefully allowing that boundary to lift north quicker then it currently is.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

I haven't been up looking too long but was up early and it appears these current winds have veered more to the east now? Judging by the last setup in IA similar to this(night time sups riding the wf in nc IA) the front is about 1-2 counties further south at the same time. Winds seem to want to do the same thing.

Also it appears to me the boundary wants to be move e-w then wnw-ese which would have to help with the 500 flow. Then again something laching onto a boundary curving se would have to help our SR vent winds?

 

[Amos Magliocco]

SWODY1 1630Z UPPER MS VALLEY...
WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON. WITH FRONT SHIFTING N ACROSS ERN NEB/IA WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN MN/WI TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES COULD INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN WI TONIGHT...

Ouch! In other words, "get a life, you nerds! Don't you know a mega-cap when you see it? Learn to read a sounding!"

LOL!!! :?

Feeling dressed down in Des Moines,

Amos

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Hahaha, don't you just hate to read stuff like that Amos? This stationary front is playing heck with forecasters and the models alike. I still hold some hope for you guys before the afternoon is over though, but looking at last night's midnight firing time to break the cap, good luck!!

Tim

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Perhaps this front won't make it far enough north(under better midlevel winds). Though an interesting report west of Lincoln now wonder if that reading is correct for the wind speed/direction.

LOOKS AS THOUGH UPPER WAVE PRODUCING THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH RAPIDLY NORTH AT THAT POINT.

From Hastings FD. Hmmm. Maybe that reading west of Lincoln was correct. So it lifts rapidly north and our convergence lessens? We need a mesolow to form around GRI or east. Could happen, it did last similar setup.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think I'm talking to myself on this one now, but oh well, here goes. I say if anything sfc based is going to happen it will be just west of Columbus Nebraka at 5:37. It will then track east and produce it's brief tornado somewhere near Tekamah NE, BUT I will be down in Blair trying to cross the river to intercept it on the other side and miss it.

 

[Tim Jones]

Ya made me bust a gut, Mike. Good thinking on the Columbus call. That shortwave looks to have passed into SW NE and should cause the front to lift up to or North of I-80 a bit later. I'm sitting here in Omaha trying to be patient. Maybe you should just sit on the Iowa side on this one?

 

[JR Hehnly]

I'm in Nebraska City sitting on the front. Going to follow it north. 84/64 here with NE winds. Patience...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0581.html

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I would hang right around Neb City-Red Oak, IA. WF has been hanging there and some of the CU along the boundary to the SW has been thinking about popping - hopefully the midlevel instability won't inhibit something close to the surface and you can get something besides hail, though that would be cool too - RUC still predicting precip right in that pocket SW of Neb City along the boundary - here's your OAX sounding:

<img src=http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/oax_sounding.gif>

 

[JR Hehnly]

Getting ready to head for the cell East of Lincoln. Looks plenty clear ahead of it, and Shenandoah is showing 82/70 right now.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by j_r_hehnly
Getting ready to head for the cell East of Lincoln. Looks plenty clear ahead of it, and Shenandoah is showing 82/70 right now.

I'm southwest of Omaha at the intersection of I-80 and State Road 50. Disappointed this boundary isn't moving much and that our best moisture convergence appears to have shifted eastward into northern Missouri. Without strong convergence at the surface, we're sunk.

Where is the cell east of Lincoln? I don't see it on radar, and I don't see it with my eyes.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Where is this cell? Not on radar.

 

[Tim Jones]

I'm in Omaha and getting ready to venture out to the south - probably down I-29 to the Nebraska City area for starters. This isn't good.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

There's a weak "blotch" west of Lincoln, but to me the blotch by Neb City looks just as good (or crappy, take your pick at this point). Movement on these is straight NE ... but if anything they've been degrading recently.

My mom just called and found out that a good friend of our family was killed last night riding his motorcycle up in the target area you guys are in right now ... he hit a deer and couldn't even make it to the hospital. Everyone should remember how active the wildlife are right now and be careful -