5/5/07 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Jim Bishop]

Yep, Saturday still looks a huge event. From the 12z WRF it seems Western Oklahoma and Southern Nebraska are two areas that stand out. But storms should fire all along the dryline from the Red River to Nebraska. That 850mb jet will be rockin hard so I think any storm will have tornado potential. The qustion is where will the long-track violent tornadoes be? Don mentioned overnight convection may play a role in that and I'm pretty sure he's on to something there.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I as well think he is onto something.. but with such a kinematically and dynamically driven environment hopefully things will still be big.. Also, any convective boundaries left over from nocturnal convection could aid in tornado potential

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Personally I'm hoping any overnight convection for the most part stays out of the way/heads further east because the environment is already extremely favorable for a huge outbreak...no need to complicate things. Also something to note is that the reason the CAPE values are down in western OK/KS is due to convection firing on the dryline in the NAM...nothing wrong with that!

However, there's something else to note that I've been thinking about quite a bit...and that is that there is a distinct possibility that the convection that the models are indicating over Oklahoma Friday night will in fact be one or more surface-based tornadic supercells. If this is the case, it's not likely that the environment will be worked over much at all, and tonight could be a scary night for Oklahoma residents, and something of a precursor to the really big show on Saturday.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looking at the RUC trends for later tonight, it looks like the warm sector caps off, and this could mean some big things as far as Saturday's chase adventures for SC/SW Kansas into W.Oklahoma.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Based on what I see on the NAM from this morning, I think the best target for sustained discrete activity will be in W/NW Oklahoma specifically near Woodward. Check out this sounding from Gage, Oklahoma valid for 21Z
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=033&STATIONID=KGAG
Over 4000 J/kg of CAPE, and the low level storm relative winds are impressive, and the hodograph only gets better if you go to 0Z.

I am also seeing some convective feedback issues in the upper level temperature field in the same area, and the NAM shows precip accumulations that look an awful lot like a couple of discrete cells just east of the TX/OK border. However, the GFS is a little less agressive with the timing of the upper level jet, the strenght of the 500 mb flow, and the precipiation accumulation in general. We will have to wait and see what develops this evening before really getting a good handle on what happens tomorrow but as of now I am really liking the the corridor between Woodward and Elk City tomorrow afternoon, even though it is not outlined in the SPC's Moderate risk area at the moment.

 

[Joel Wright]

Saturday looks better than today in my opinion. I think the cap will be quicker to break and the convection will erupt much further south along the dryline compared to today. Time will tell for sure.

As of now it looks like Jeremy Ludin and I will be in the Hays Kansas area...

 

[Kenny Drake]

Well, the 00Z NAM run hasn't changed much from the previous and I'm still quite pessimistic about tomorrow being the huge hyped up event it has come to. To me this seems quite similar to the April 24th convective linear mess across OK. The dryline is progged by the NAM to plow east and then stall out across the TX/OK border early in the afternoon. This scenario on April 24th fired convection early in the day that turned linear very quickly due to the weak/no CAP. However, tomorrow it seems will have a slightly stronger CAP to work with. NAM still does break out precip early in the day, evident by the CAPE maxima being located well east of the dryline across central OK. So I plan on waking up fairly early for a Saturday just in case things fire early in a favorable environment. NAM is picking up a few waves propagating over the dryline throughout the day.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Well, the 00Z NAM run hasn't changed much from the previous and I'm still quite pessimistic about tomorrow being the huge hyped up event it has come to. To me this seems quite similar to the April 24th convective linear mess across OK. The dryline is progged by the NAM to plow east and then stall out across the TX/OK border early in the afternoon. This scenario on April 24th fired convection early in the day that turned linear very quickly due to the weak/no CAP. However, tomorrow it seems will have a slightly stronger CAP to work with. NAM still does break out precip early in the day, evident by the CAPE maxima being located well east of the dryline across central OK. So I plan on waking up fairly early for a Saturday just in case things fire early in a favorable environment. NAM is picking up a few waves propagating over the dryline throughout the day.

I must respectfully disagree- on April 24 the forecast soundings for OK and KS were marginal at best, tomorrow they will be off the chart fantastic. This should keep any early firing convection from going linear and turning into a big nasty blob- we may have tornadic supercells quite early, but I do not see it becoming a squall line. I am still thinking that tomorrow will be a big day somewhere.

 

[John Farley]

Both the NAM and the GFS are consistent, with each other and with earlier runs, in placing the dryline very near the OK-TX panhandle border at both 18Z and 0Z. Both also show quite limited precip in western OK, which seems to argue against the widespread linear MCS scenario, IMHO. This seems more consistent with isolated supercells, unless the cap holds and we don't get storms in that area at all. I think isolated sups is the more likely scenario, though, and as of now I plan to target Elk City or somewhere a little N or perhaps NW of there. Hope the show is not too early, as I am driving from NM so have a bit of a haul to get to the target area. An early start will be a necessity for me!

 

[Jim Tang]

This is quite different from April 24. In this case, the setup looks a lot more like March 28. The key difference between this and April 24 being that the best upper air forcing lags behind the dryline, and 700mb temps are pretty high (near 10 degrees C near OKC).

 

[David Wolfson]

Well, here we go again. The atmosphere is in a groove, don't fight the tape, etc. I'm virtually back at my room in DDC. Already some convection going up just south of me, which confirms the morning sounding of almost no CINH. Storm motion will be pretty crazy today -- northeast at over 40kts. Follow something too early and you could be in Topeka by lunch and Minneapolis by dinner (well, almost).

With all that I like the slightly more capped picture and better dryline dynamics potential a little bit further south. I'm heading virtually southeast to Ashland, KS, to stay in Verizon data territory, kick around at the sights there, and hopefully catch the train in the late afternoon.

My heart and prayers go out to the suffering town of Greensburg. That was real -- not virtual. I hope everyone was safe and stays safe today. The storms today will be fast moving, cyclic nasties.

 

[kenny_allen]

SevereStudios.com Chase Team checking in here. We are heading south out of SD on HWY 37. Unknown Central NE is our chase target for now. PDS Tornado watch for the area. It is going to be a crazy day.

We will have our live chase cam running on and off today. Good luck to everyone and be safe. Get the info to the NWS and Media to help save some lives.

7 confirmed dead now in Greensburg and 60 injured... this is why we chase, to warn, inform, and help protect.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

It would seem that the shear is fairly unidirectional right now near the dryline in Kansas, at least until you get start getting up into southern Nebraska. The storms that are initiating north of KDDC seem to be trying their darndest to go linear. The day is young, of course, but right now southwest/southcentral Nebraska seems like a good play.