5/30/04 FCST OH and TN Valley

mrobinson

Looks like all of Saturdays action will move into the OH/TN Valley for Sunday. Starting this thread as requested..

Melissa
 
I just did a marathon drive from Connecticut to Columbus, OH last night to put my self in position. Looking at the new SPC outlook I will probably head to southern Indiana today. I'll narrow it down tonight and tomorrow. Details to come.
 
I will likely be heading to southern/southwestern Indiana as well. I'm here in MI, so it isn't too far away, but I'm gonna wait for another run or two of the models, since the ETA hasn't been too consistant.

Robert
 
Chasing KS/OK today, then marathoning to IN/KY/WV for tomorrow. Not the best chase territoriy this is heading for. Looks like it will be a squall line event late in eastern KY/WV, but it's home, so I've got to be there.

I agree, we'll likely see a high risk tomorrow over KY/IN/OH. Looks like a huge day.
 
We'll see what unfolds over the course of the day. Hey, I was in Dayton 2 weeks ago, why not do it again?! I'll look at everything before bed tonight, and make a decision from there. If I do decide to play, Dayton to Richmond area looks like my initial target.
 
I think generally I am already in a pretty darn place for tomorrow. I am in Winchester, Indiana, which is a county north of Richmond and 1 county North of Interstate 70 along the Indiana/Ohio Border. I would pick an area from Bloomington Northeast to Dayton as my area for best threat of tornadoes.
 
I'm heading to Terre Haute tonight. I'm hoping things go up in Indiana, I'd rather chase there then down in KY.

FYI- I would try to avoid the Indianapolis area on Sunday. Some car race going on there, it's pretty big. I'm glad these storms are looking to stay south of that area.
 
Yes The Indianapolis 500 is going on Sunday, and in my opinion Indianapolis is right in the target area for severe storms and tornadoes. If one of these storms does hit Indianapolis, it would be devastating, as there are over a half million people at the speedway and it would take over 30 minutes to evacuate everyone. The National Weather Service out of Indianapolis is very worried.
 
Watch for as far west as St. Louis line south through Arkansas being Burst point for convection On latest Theta-E ridge model. High risk could include this area as well between 1800 & 2100
 
I have made my choice, I WILL be heading out tomorrow to the Indianapolis area, or around there. I just hope I can find some good WIFI areas since I my cellular card went dead and I no longer have the service.

Just got new tires on the car and am ready to go...I will probably be leaving here (Detroit) around 9AM...And should reach Indianapolis area by 1PM or so...That is if everything holds (as far as the severe weather threat).

Robert
 
I'm committed. I'm in Terre Haute loving the free high-speed internet and TWC at the Hampton Inn. (although I wish I was staying at a Holiday Inn Express...I'd feel a lot smarter).

I like the warm as it moves across IN tomorrow during the day, but I also like the unstable air behind the warm front. I'm still debating which area to follow.

What may be more intersting is how they are going to handle The Indy 500. Looks like a potential disaster situation, then again it could be over by the time things get going.
 
I'm going to head towards Indy and north to northwest possibly from there in the afternoon trying to follow warm front as it pushes north. I'm not a meteorologist other then what I've self learned over the years but based my target area from ETA 7 pm(0z) maps so hope it pans out (but will probably be a bust due to lack real time chase data on the road (no open librarys on Sun.):
Cape (7pm) aprx 2000 (although central Ill is 3000), LI from -4 to -6, LCl between 1000-500m, SRH-300, 850 temp 15-17C aprx, 700 temp 5-10C,
EHI aprx 4, 0-6 wind shear @ 40, LFC aprox 1100m, aprx. winds-40 @ 850(sw), 50 @ 500(sw), 40 @ 700 (sw), 20 from s @ sfc. SPC seems to be saying that tornado threat will follow front as it pushes north into central to northern Indiana:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Good luck to all mid west chasers - stay & drive safe !

Jon Miller - WTØRNA
Celina, Ohio
 
I'm not favoring the 18Z ETA too much, for Indiana. The latest ETA seems to have slowed the system way down, with western/southern IL now in the favored spot...I will wait and see what the 00Z and 06Z ETA shows before making the final call...

Robert
 
I'm still happy with my base. I'm 3 hours from St. Louis, Peoria, Chicago, Louisville, and Ohio. Lots of options for the morning.
 
If anyone in the Norman area wants to chase tomorrow and needs a partner, I'm available. Dead tired and still no sleep since yesterday, but if there's anyone thinking about trying NE AR for a High Risk, I'm game.

Respond in PM please, thanks.
 
SPC has moved outlook farther south. I think I am going to target the perimeter of Saint Louis. Hopefully, find a wi-fi where I can hang out for a while. I will update when the 1200z models come out.
 
Indy is still in BIG TROUBLE, but the storms may hold off until after the race is over. However, very unstable air is present, and of course storms could pop with little warning. Indy is included in sigsvr hatchings with a MDT risk, but it looks like they will likely see some squall line action late in the evening. Main tornado threat is west of them.

Thunderstorms rapidly intensifying in NW suburbs of Chicago. I am hearing lots of cannonball thunder right now. Sorry for going OT, but that is just awesome.

Good Luck chasers, nobody get hurt out there, especially David Drummpnd and Mel Robinson!
 
What does everyone think about the very large MCS moving east into the risk area? If it holds together, could it stabilize the atmosphere behind it? According to the satellite imagery, it does take a while for skies to clear after the MCS passes.
 
Right now I'm trying to decide between two targets.

In northeast AR, the chase terrain is actually not too bad around JBR and
SRC. I'm concerned that area will see a solid squall line given the strong cap
and strong forcing. However, the surface winds are often more back than
progged in that area because of the terrain (being in the lee of the Ouachita
Plateau).

A second threat area appears to be eastern north Texas, SE of DAL and E
of ACT, along the trailing end of the front. Shear will still be more than
sufficient, even though the storm system will be leaving the area behind.
The instability, however, should be very large (SBCAPE 6000ish).

Will make a decision shortly and then I'm out the door.
 
SPC has increased the area of the high risk to include much of IL, with long-tracked damaging tornadoes a good bet...I will be heading into Springfield early this afternoon...Hoping to catch some action, I just hope I can find some of those WIFI spots...

Robert
 
High Risk expanded to included far southern suburbs of Chicago! :shock: The sun is breaking out now as the MCS approaches from the west. My area is now hatched for destructive winds at 35%, aslo 15% tor and 35% hail.
 
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