5/3 to 5/9/07

[Jim Leonard]

It maybe too early too get excited about long range models but the consistancy of the models are something to think about in the later part of next week and over the weekend. The models are showing a decent trough setting up in the western U.S. along with a wide open GOM. At the moment this looks like a sloshing dry line setup for the panhandle north through western Kansas.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Agreed. The GFS Ensemble shows a big trough setting up over the Rockies into the Plains May 3 - 10 with a ridge over the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. At the surface it suggests mean southerly flow over the plains and mean troughing along the lee of the Rockies.

Basically May 3 through at least May 10 looks very active for severe weather setups over the Plains, based on the GFS Ensemble. The GFS Operational has the same idea.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

well i never thought about starting a thread in here.. I have been noticing this myself.. I like next friday. Dp in mid 60's with 4000 cape.. I think shear is lacaking.. but plenty of time to see

 

[Adam Atkins]

Hmmm wonder if anyone will be chasing the first week of May?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Of course there will be a big outbreak (or two) in that time period! One of the only time few days during which I cannot chase this spring is the May 5-8 period... I'll be in Florida during that time for a wedding, so everyone should prepare for some big chase action. Arg.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Of course there will be a big outbreak (or two) in that time period! One of the only time few days during which I cannot chase this spring is the May 5-8 period... I'll be in Florida during that time for a wedding, so everyone should prepare for some big chase action. Arg.

That is sound for my ears. I have to say that from a lot of days(at least 5 days) GFS is confirming this full of activity tendence, for the period from may 3 to may 7. Hope it remains the same.

 

[Joel Wright]

Great news to me. Our chasing vacation starts May 5th.

I've been watching the models too, and have been trying to hold back my excitement. It's still a ways away, but the trend has been very consistent. So that's a great sign!

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

Hmmm wonder if anyone will be chasing the first week of May?

Perfect timing for us!! We'll be down there the 4th -13th. If it goes as planned, looks like we won't be getting much sleep!

 

[Paul Sherman]

Perfect for us as well, we Chase 1st-10th, those Charts were made for us.
Now why Did i start that other thread last week

Paul Sherman

 

[Mike Mezeul II]

finals week...DOH!!

 

[nickgrillo]

Not sure when I'm leaving, but I'm pretty sure I'll be leaving within the next week or so for Kansas City. Low-level moisture should be robust and of considerable depth across the central plains, making for a juicy and unstable warm sector for when smaller perturbations aloft eject from the main trough on the west coast. As of now, it does appear that a significant day or two should come out of the May 2nd-8th timeframe, in which hopefully I'll be out there chasing...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

finals week...DOH!!

Right there with you buddy. However, I've only got two final exams this semester, so maybe I can sneak away from town in between.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I'll Be out May 2-13. I've noticed both the GFS and ECMWF keep the trof axis a bit west for my liking. If this is the case, we'll have continual lee trofing for many days with mean SW flow over the high plains. However, unless the trof axis swings a little further east, we'll have a big EML to deal with, especially in the far southern portion of the high plains. Hopefully with MUCH better surface moisture in 2007 than 2006, and a wide open gulf; a moderate to big EML will work with us instead of against us this early in the year.

 

[Shane Adams]

I noticed this too last night, but decided to hold off saying anything until someone else started a thread...thanks Jim LOL!!! Yep, looks like a classic Plains dryline period, and the best part is the flow off the Gulf originates over the Carribean area as opposed to the SE US (which of course didn't matter anyway 4-21), so all debate over moisture concerns should be nullified quite nicely this next go 'round.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I should be available most of the period.. Still looks to be a nice setup.. I just hope things dont slow down and stay west again.. Hopefully 4-8 SWODY will start highlighting things..