nickgrillo
EF5
There looks to be a pretty nice setup forming on Wednesday (as well as Tuesday)... A warm front should exist over portions of northern OK/southern KS by the afternoon, with > 65 tds progged south of the frontal zone, yielding very large sbCAPE (e.g. 2500-3500 j/kg progged by the NAM) with the GFS being just as aggressive with the low-level moisture. The one problem may be relatively weak upper flow (e.g. 40-50kts at 250mb, as progged by both the NAM and GFS) but the 0-6km shear is excellent, given the deep-layer veering flow across the moist sector. Forecast soundings from the region show deep moist layers across the region, with several soundings in southern KS (along and south of the boundary) showing awesome ("fat") CAPE profiles, with some nice low-level curvature in the hodographs (albeit relatively meager SRH accumulating in the lowest 0-1km AGL in most spots). Both the NAM and GFS initiate precip along/south of the front by the mid-afternoon, with most of the forecast soundings showing sbCIN eroding effectively to aid deep-layer ascent of moist air.
I think both Tuesday and Wednesday have some pretty good potential (with northwesterly flow aloft and backed surface flow yielding strong 0-6km shear and rich low-level moisture augmenting to progged CAPEs of > 3500 j/kg to induce a supercell threat on both days), and I plan on leaving tomorrow afternoon for KS (maybe I'll get lucky and see some convection on the way west tomorrow evening LOL). I have to say that both days look equally as pleasing (very strong-extreme sbCAPE + large 0-6km and nice low-level shear in both cases for the most part) in terms of both thermodynamics and kinematics.
I think both Tuesday and Wednesday have some pretty good potential (with northwesterly flow aloft and backed surface flow yielding strong 0-6km shear and rich low-level moisture augmenting to progged CAPEs of > 3500 j/kg to induce a supercell threat on both days), and I plan on leaving tomorrow afternoon for KS (maybe I'll get lucky and see some convection on the way west tomorrow evening LOL). I have to say that both days look equally as pleasing (very strong-extreme sbCAPE + large 0-6km and nice low-level shear in both cases for the most part) in terms of both thermodynamics and kinematics.