5/23/06 NOW: KS / NE / SD

Currently sitting in Grand Island pinning our hopes on something more discrete to the south of the current convection. We're playing the waiting game.
Winds are begining to back here in Omaha and moisture remains fairly intact with our surface dp still at 66... warning decision update from OAX says we have nearly 3000 j/kg instability with little CINH remaining out west. I think that the initiating storms may struggle until they get east a ways into the more moisture rich air to the east where mixing has had less of an effect on moisture. Hopefully our winds can remain with that easterly component...
I'm thinking that these storms that are there now may be to far south to tie into the energy that's available up north, over the MO river in C SD. I'm feeling that these storms will be more linear in nature, and to the N, E and S of this system there will be more isolated and stronger storms. The dynamics just look better to the N, E and S of the present precip areas.

I just think that the system needs to move farther east before the real show starts.

EDIT: although, the cell is far away from the FSD radar, the cell east of Chaimberlain, SD (just crossing I-90) is starting to pick up a nice velocity profile on the last few scans
F5 Tornado Safaris is moving east out of Valentine altough there is not a real dominant cell to chase. We may send them south to the tail end charlie that looks a little better.
1930 convective outlook is out, really playing up the supercell potential over SE SD and NE NE. Also moved up the significant hail and wind, and kicked the tornado 10% circle a little farther east.

The discussion says that the shear profiles over SE SD are becoming extremely favorable for supercell type storms, and given the current situation, looks like they'll be embedded supercells. :mellow: not a good thing.

Will see how this plays out, as tems are now in the 90's here and dewpoints approaching 70's. LLJ is also starting to move into position. CU are also forming over the SE SD NE NE area, not sure if anything will be coming of these, but given the dymanics, anything is possible.

Time to close up shop and head out!
I'm sitting in Concordia right now doing some forecasting. Everything looks good except for the moisture. IMO that is going to put a serious damper on the tornado potentail along the dryline. I do still think a couple tornadoes are possible this evening. I am getting ready move West and set up along the dryline. Good luck to everybody out chasing.
I have noticed the dryline has kept off to the west, but the winds, in a directional sense, are very favorable for supercells if they can get into the more moist air in time. I may head out within the next 20-30 minutes and go toward Salina. Anyone near or west of the I-135/US 81 corridor between Salina and York should be in good position for an isolated supercell or two.

Edit: Looks like the CINH has eroded a little in W. KS in the past hour along the dryline.
Looks like a pretty good supercell has set up shop in Keya Paha NE and Gregory SD counties with some pretty good rotation. Won't be suprised if this one goes to a torn warning.
Everything looks disastrous right now with no supercells that I can see and a conjoined squall line raging east through the watch box.

I think any chasers should hold out hope for development on the southern end/a tail-end charlie scenario further south, as central and northern NE and SD look hosed right now.

Of course - out of the grunge there may come a long-lived tornadic supercell......there's always a chance of it, at least.

As I have said before (and Jeff just commented on the same subject), the main problem is the LCLs across the region -- which is the result of the deeper moisture being mixed out through the strong insolation we had earlier in the afternoon (with the LCL height increasing and CAPE decreasing). The observed sounding from OAX has a quite favorable thermodynamic profile, but that was 3 hours ago (the td on the sounding was 67F) with the LCL being much lower than as now being depicted by RUC mesoanalysis across the warm sector -- e.g. 2000m AGL -- which would tend to favor significant evaporative cooling in downdrafts (eventually leading to outflow dominance). I'm still staying south, and hoping the LLJ will crank up and increase tornado potential a bit by later in the evening. SPC brung the 10% TOR risk southward as well (guessing that tornado potential will increase through the late evening). RUC still depicts very strong surface theta-e convergence along the surface trough well into central KS by 00z, so I'm hoping something could go slightly further south within the next few hours (and hoping LCLs will lower and SRH will increase some). Given the favorable deep-layer flow, the 0-6km shear will become increasingly supportive for supercell structures as the evening progresses.

I may think of heading a bit southwest of here soon...
I'd think you are best off being patient, and east, of the current activity. Note on vis sat a band of enhanced cumulus out ahead of the main convection - which helped trigger some widely scattered storms ahead of the main line across NE. Cumulus have been on the increase across northern KS as this feature approaches. This feature could eventually ignite convection closer to the KS/NE state line - closer to the slowly recovering dewpoint tongue (e.g. 63 F Td at MHK on ~20@160 winds) and as Jeff mentioned the mid-level flow is more westerly. While cells are developing back into Norton and Sheridan counties in KS, they are many hours away from getting to the better moisture (before 3Z?). I think you need to hope for something new developing a bit further east.
Reading the latest FD out of the FSD FO, they're talking about it maybe being a 1-2 punch type thing, with some interest being afforded to the front behind the current activity. The talkis this is associated with the lobe of convective clouds to in WC NE, and it looks to come northest like the rest and maybe that'll be the interesting thing.

Where has all the energy gone?
TOR Warning for Davidson County in SD. Trained Storm Spotters reported a Tornado on the ground. The town of mitchell could be in it's path. Mitchell is a good sized town and also has the corn palace. Anyone in the area watching this tornado?

Just as a position update... Me and my crew are sitting just west of Mankato KS right now (in western Jewell county). The updrafts look pretty skinny right now, and anvils aren't very impressive. Actually, there is a little mammatus developing with a cell to our southwest. We're planning on heading east towards Mankato again, then dropping south a little to wait for the cell in east-central Osborn county KS to approach.
Chased a bunch today...of um...clouds. Started in North Platte, and am calling it a day in O'Neil, Nebraska.

Just was looking at the latest satellite and radar. Looks like prefrontal cells are firing in N KS, and for the moment they're discrete. However, the cold front appears to be kicking tail eastward, but if I could warp anywhere right now, it would probably be on the inflow on the storm forming in Marshall or Washington counties. One cell appears hookish, but otherwise, the satellite shows things to really be congealing rapidly.
Ouch...sorry I jinxed you guys in KS. Last couple of scans show outflow appearance to those cells. Looks like the front is undercutting some of the prefrontal storms and everything looks like it's moving into a linear chain of gunk. All cells are hauling NNE to join the rest of the gunk here in Nebraska. Worse, the KS cells are entering the inflow to the cells in Grand Island, NE, and will likely choke off any tail-end storms forming in that area.