5/23/04 FCST: MI/IN/OH/IL/WI (GREAT LAKES)

[David Draun]

Originally posted by Joe Smith
Don't let your guard down, Dave. 1700 SPC mesoanalysis shows Storm Relative Helicity of 300/350 m2/s2 from Alton to Keokuk and I expect this higher helicity to move north and east with each run this afternoon. Even though the hatched area for tornadoes may have been moved more to north central Illinois you are still just east and have the potential for strong tornadoes as well. You're still in sig severe regarding straight line winds. This looks to be a very dangerous situation given the population area coverage and the location of significant severe for later today.

Never let my guard down? Of course I didn't. Looking at the situation now, there are isolated severe storms/supercells, but they are not heading my way. The cold front has picked up speed. We may get a storm before 9pm and an MCS overnight of course.

 

[rdale]

How would Chicago get a MCS overnight? The cold front's on your doorstep...

 

[David Draun]

Originally posted by rdale
How would Chicago get a MCS overnight? The cold front's on your doorstep...

sorry , my mistake, i guess it's over now. There's still TCu to my west though, but its disorganized. No more storms tonight. It could have been worse though, TWC did have the T-word mentioned in the local forecast for Chicago throughout the day. Can they do that?

"Storms could contain tornadoes..." EXACT WORDING from TWC local forecast.

 

[rdale]

Why couldn't they? SPC mentions it in their forecasts.