5/23/04 FCST: MI/IN/OH/IL/WI (GREAT LAKES)

[Robert Dewey]

Looks like a pretty signifcant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes is in store for tomorrow afternoon and evening across the Great Lakes, if the ETA is correct...Situation actually looks somewhat similar to the July 2, 1997 event in many ways.

I believe the ETA will be correct, for several reason...

1) It is handling the system in the Plains better, in fact...The SPC Mesoanalysis indicates the low to be in the same location/strength as the 6hr 18Z ETA forecast.

2) ETA has been VERY VERY consistant, with only minor timing issues

3) GFS has not been as consistant, and as of 18Z, its a bit stronger than the previous run

4) The Canadian RGEM model agrees whole-heartedly with the ETA (in fact, it is several MB deeper at the SFC, at 991MB) and the GGEM is very similar to the current ETA, at 997MB.

5) And while the FSL RUC tends to be way too strong with systems, it does hint towards the ETAs positioning and favor a deeper solution, VS. the GFS

Otherwise...Models suggest instability will build to over 2500j/kg...Combined with a very strong wind field all the way up, and some pretty decent directional shear, sets up the potential for severe weather. The main kicker, will be a cold front slamming into that primed atmosphere, and you can figure the rest from there.

Im just hoping some un-foreseen event, such as an MCS hanging around much longer doesn't hinder all hope for severe...

If you are reading this Rob Dale, what are your takes on this event?

Robert

 

[rdale]

This is my bet for winner of the year so far... After all these derechos it'd be nice to see some good supercell action (today's stuff formed a bit too far northeast for me to hit.)

I see no big negatives to a big event happening. I'm not big on comparing to previous events but it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome was the same. My best memory of that one was sitting in Monroe Co after the first event hit Detroit, and all the forecasts saying to stay out for the BIG line that would form in the evening. Still waiting ;>

 

[Ben Pinette]

I'm not much of a forecaster, so I'll leave that up to you guys. But I will say that after reading the synopsis, I'm eager for tomorrow to get here. I'm hoping for early evening initiation, but I'll still be bailing out of work early if neccessary.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, I've done it...Stayed up late enough for the 0600Z SPC Day 1 Outlook...And most of southwestern MI is in a MDT risk...With a 15% Chance for tornadoes, and a blue hatched area for strong tornadoes possible. Looks like areas further east will experience a pretty good squall line with very damaging winds according to SPC. ETA is a bit weaker this go around, but the 0300Z RUC is still going at it, as well as the experimental models...We shall see..

Robert

 

[Robert Dewey]

Just added WI and IL to the list above...SPC 1300Z Outlook says strong tornadoes possible...

Robert

 

[Joel Wright]

Today is going to be a VERY interesting day to be sure! I think SPC's moderate risk needs to be extended a bit further west to include more of eastern IA. Already nice clearing behind the decaying/exiting MCS showing up nicely. It will take some time this morning, but eventually the airmass will fully recover. Unseasonably deep moisture and large CAPE values put a smile on my face.

I would target far eastern IA, probably along route 30 west of Clinton...

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm really excited about this day. I'm wondering if they'll have to upgrade it to a high risk. I'm worried about 2 things right now though. The first is all the residual cloud cover. Its only about 10 o'clock but there are still quite a few clouds left over. The second is the fact that the outbreak if there is one will occur in a much more highly populated area than yesterday. If theres a smattering of tornados like yesterday it could very well be quite deadly.

 

[David Draun]

I am not liking the predidiction of strong tornadoes this close to Chicago. I am officially freaked out :shock: Right now 72/66 with a dry punch to my west. The wind is gusting over 25. These storms will probably go fast. IMO, that translates to little warning time for potentially destructive tornadoes near major population centers.

 

[Jon Miller]

Tornado watch has been posted for s. Mi/ne In/ nw Oh

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0259.html

East central to ne Indiana is where I'm heading this afternoon- along the sfc front -2000 cape- storms developing in Illinois - low LCL-65 dp.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/index2.h

Good luck to alll mid west chasers.

 

[David Draun]

Looks like the worst will now be south of me. SPC has scaled back hatched area, removing much of Chicago area and all of Michigan from it. Still looks nasty though, perhaps not as bad as it could be. 79/63 attm. Thick AC deck developing along with a few short Cu. I am less freaked out now. :wink: Wish I could chase though, if I had the equip, I'd be right out there. Good luck out there, hope people are not hurt or killed.

 

[Joe Smith]

Don't let your guard down, Dave. 1700 SPC mesoanalysis shows Storm Relative Helicity of 300/350 m2/s2 from Alton to Keokuk and I expect this higher helicity to move north and east with each run this afternoon. Even though the hatched area for tornadoes may have been moved more to north central Illinois you are still just east and have the potential for strong tornadoes as well. You're still in sig severe regarding straight line winds. This looks to be a very dangerous situation given the population area coverage and the location of significant severe for later today.

 

[Ben Pinette]

Still waiting........ Looks like a nice bust in MI. I'm now waiting to see how north/northwest IN looks after 22Z, maybe I'll shoot down there.

 

[rdale]

I didn't forsee any notable severe weather in Michigan this early in the game - that was quite a surprise. I'm still expecting stuff later.

 

[Jacki Earnest]

Explosive thunderstorm development now appearing more and more likely in my general area and points east...... still under cloudcover, however dynamics look dreamy! :lol: We're anticipating quite a day today, and hope to see some of you out here!

 

[Ben Pinette]

Thanks for the confidence boost Rob. I NEEDED it!! I was becomming more and more frustrated with early SWODY1, Moderate Risks, and TOR Watches in general. I guess I should just learn to forecast myself and forego some of that.

Good luck to everyone out today.