5/21/04 NOW: Upper midwest - Great Lakes - High Plains

Kevin Scharfenberg

Several areas of severe thunderstorms already going now (noon CDT) along the front from MI/IN back to IA/MN. More likely to follow later this afternoon from central SD - western NE - western KS - TX/OK panhandles - southeast NM.

Discuss today's developments here...
 
I am believing that there could be a repeat of 4/20 today. The conditions are similar with the exceptions of MUCH HIGHER CAPE and A LOT more moisture. Remember, it was cold on that morning in Chicago as well. A combination of the wind shifting from NE to SE with the advancing warm front with increasing SBCAPE was strong enough for low-topped SUPs. I think it could very well happen again today over many of the same areas, except perhaps stronger, affecting a large area, and according to soundings, SUP's will not be low-topped. I'm not a MET yet, so this is just a guess. What do you think?
 
That outflow boundary showing up rather nicely on satellite now from Sioux City straight sw through NE. Cape building south of it. Where along it will be the player though? Area around Kearney is really picking up with Cu. Waiting a bit longer here.
 
The derecho system that hit Chicago this morning has caused a two foot seiche on Lake Michigan. This will cause rises of 2ft on alternating sides of the lake in 1-2hr intervals unitl the seiche has weakened.
 
So far everything is north of the VERY impressive boundary up in northern IA. Softball sized hail was reported in Spencer IA out of a very small but obviously intense elevated supercell. This has since weakened. New elevated cells are firing across north-central IA at this time. Visible immagery shows a fine line of moderate cumulus right on the boundary from IL to NE. South of that it looks really capped right now with only small cumulus patches. There have been a few weak showers trying to form along the boundary just north of DSM, but these seem to be having trouble getting established. At least right now it looks like this is the best area for surface based development.
 
Well the cells north of DSM appear to be growing and getting stronger. The eastermost cell just crossed the boundary and almost looks to have a kidney bean shape to it. This area of central IA looks like it might start to get really interesting...
 
Tor-warning - Grundy County, IA until 2:45 ... and Hamilton Co., Iowa until 2:45.

Mike - you may be further back on the front, but I would still chance it and go after the storms building on the NE/IA line - if they become anything like the ones further east you will be lovin life -
 
A small area of very favorable conditions for tornadoes has developed in the Waterloo area, with a pair of supercells. The Grundy county storm has already produced "multiple tornadoes".

Get thee to Waterloo!
 
wish I was in IA right now, but I got a late start and am in Topeka right now, I hope to play some development in E. NE. We shall see.
 
Ames, IA chaser Ben McMillan has reported several "large but weak" tornadoes in the Grundy-Black Hawk County area over the past few hours. He has followed the cells from their seemingly innocent initiation in Greene County aroun noon. He cannot confirm damage but a few spotty damage reports are coming in from local media.
 
I will put the links to the LSR's later on, to condensed things.
Nebraska:

NWS North Platte Office: 2 tornadoes in Nebraksa
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLBF/0405220512.nwus53.html

Other Nebraska tornado reports
-------------------------
0835 PM TORNADO 2 N HADAR 42.13N 97.45W
05/21/2004 PIERCE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
-------------------------
0820 PM TORNADO 1 W HADAR 42.11N 97.47W
05/21/2004 PIERCE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


NWS Davenport Office: 9 Tornadoes in Iowa
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDVN/0405220103.nwus53.html

NWS Des Moines Office: 13 Tornadoes in Iowa
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDSM/0405222241.nwus53.html

Mike
 
INJURIES

0610 PM TORNADO ROLFE 42.81N 94.53W
05/21/2004 POCAHONTAS IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
THREE TORNADOES. NUMEROUS INJURIES. CONSIDERABLE PROPERTY
DAMAGE.
-------------------------
0623 PM TORNADO BRADGATE 42.80N 94.42W
05/21/2004 HUMBOLDT IA BROADCAST MEDIA
HOMES DAMAGED AND INJURIES.

Mike
 
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AT 627 PM A LARGE TORNADO REMAINED IN THE VICINITY OF BRADGATE.
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
 
I'm starting not to like this. The outflow in Wisconsin is causing thunderstorms and isolated supercells ahead of the big storms. Could this be the begining of a tornado outbreak toward Chicago tonight? :shock: Right now, large dark clouds over my area, thunder rumbling, wind gusting. A temperature drop would be nice right now. :lol: Tornadoes are cool, but not in MY neighborhood.

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DEKALB/KANE********

I am officially spooked. :shock:
 
OK, maybe I over react a bit, but the doppler is freaking me out!!! There are SVR warnings to the NW IL border. All hell is breaking loose. I think I'm gonna stand outside and watch for mesos/wall clouds. There's gotta be a few around. At least the temp has come down now. Probably doesn't matter now with all this shear coming together.
 
I am nowcasting for Craig Maire today and he has reported seeing 4 tornadoes, at least 1 gustnado and some large hail in Iowa. It sounded like his best catch came near Grundy Center. That's about all I have to add attm, so I'll let Craig give the exact details later. An incredible day though to say the least. From what I could gather, numerous chasers were out and about in that area today. Hopefully most of them were able to see some tubes. Now let us hope those reported injuries are not life threatening and that the damage can be kept to a minimum.
 
The Derecho moved through NE ohio several hours ago. Wind gusts to near 100mph were reported over the area. We got winds of near 60mph along with a very ominous looking shelf cloud with a green core to it. There was no hail though. May tommorow bring another derecho :D
 
Originally posted by Chris Hayes
The Derecho moved through NE ohio several hours ago. Wind gusts to near 100mph were reported over the area. We got winds of near 60mph along with a very ominous looking shelf cloud with a green core to it. There was no hail though. May tommorow bring another derecho :D

Seen the same nasty green clouds here near Detroit as well. Winds rapidly shifted from the east to the west, gusting to 70mph at my location, along with flooding rains.

Tomorrow looks good as well, if not better...00Z ETA forecast CAPES of >2500j/kg for parts of the Great Lakes, with an excellent wind field as far as speed is concerned...And then yet another good setup Sunday, with a 990mb low tracking through the upper lakes with CAPES yet again reaching the mid 2000's/close to 3K...

Robert
 
The DVN radar was apparently knocked offline by a lightning strike. The latest image (early this evening) shows a storm nearing the site.

A very impressive, summerlike train of bows and LEWPS continues north of the boundary from lake Michigan to NE. Flash flooding is going to be a major concern tonight. There has to be one hell of a light show going on across northern IA right now.

*A little off topic...
I can't remember this deep of moisture this far north for so early in the season. Dewpoints in the mid 70's in May? With the extreme lack of rich deep moisture all through March, April, and early May this is pretty incredible!!! :D
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
The DVN radar was apparently knocked offline by a lightning strike. The latest image (early this evening) shows a storm nearing the site.

A very impressive, summerlike train of bows and LEWPS continues north of the boundary from lake Michigan to NE. Flash flooding is going to be a major concern tonight. There has to be one hell of a light show going on across northern IA right now.

*A little off topic...
I can't remember this deep of moisture this far north for so early in the season. Dewpoints in the mid 70's in May? With the extreme lack of rich deep moisture all through March, April, and early May this is pretty incredible!!! :D

Thanks jerk... Ya'll are stealing those mid-70 Tds from the southern plains, where it has been a quiet spring thus far... ;)
 
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