5/19/2010 FCST: TX, OK, KS

[Mikey Gribble]

Yeah amazing things can happen along a boundary, especially in May. I posted about that on my blog how especially with the previous GFS solutions the boundary is oriented just right of storm motions and should be pretty favorably setup for a deviant storm to track down it. That is why I think we'll see a cyclic tornadic supercell coming off the triple point or just south of it. Even if a storm can't turn and get rooted in the boundary, the resident time in the high shear adequate CAPE area will be significant since it is oriented somewhat favorably to storm motions. Still that only accounts for one or two storms tops. A boundary storm is where I see a strong tornado possibility, but I still can't see that justifying a higher end moderate or high risk.
With high CAPE, low LCL's and a boundary there is always going to be significant potential, but there is also a lot of uncertainty that goes along with setups like that. That makes this a very difficult forecast IMO, but I still don't see anything that makes me think this is a good setup for strong tornadoes with any storm that isn't riding the warm front.

 

[N. Shaw]

I think the outflow boundary from the morning storms is the key to tornado potential. As mentioned by others, the low-level shear is not ideal. However, I do believe that we'll get tornadoes (perhaps even a strong one) along that boundary.

In terms of chasing, I'm heading generally toward Lawton, with the intent to adjust toward the OFB as I noted above.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

Jumping in kind of late into this fcst thread so won't rehash a lot of great points already brought up.

Clearly the WNW-ESE composite outflow boundary/warm front looks to be key today for any "high end" tornadic event. Just within the last half hour this boundary has really become obvious on vis sat...running from near Canadian TX...just north of Clinton OK...to around Chickasha.

My official 4-county target area for today, assuming this boundary retreats at least a bit ENE: Kingfisher, Logan, Canadian, Oklahoma. Of course, this may very well need adjusted southward/westward depending on how things play out.

Starting the day here in Enid after driving down from Hastings late last evening. First OK chase of 2010 after having to sit out several events including May 10...

 

[Alan Broerse]

Still watching things come together with the existing boundry from this mornings MCS, I still like the area......a line from Weatherford to Lawton as initiation...cape, moisture and winds intersect in that region....come on dry line. 2pm bubbling...3pm initiation....we will see??

 

[James Aydelott]

Mesoscale sfc details now becoming clearer. Sure looks like the triple point will set up W of OKC, N of Weatherford/Clinton.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Mesoscale sfc details now becoming clearer. Sure looks like the triple point will set up W of OKC, N of Weatherford/Clinton.

Is it ever. Very clear on visible, winds remain backed south of the OFB with that signature < 10° F T/Td spread. Potentially another very dangerous situation across CTRL OK.

Glad storms won't be moving at the speed of sound like 10 May, hopefully will make things better for chasers/spotters and slightly so for the public at large.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm just going to copy and paste from my blog...

Well SPC upgraded to a high risk. I still don’t see it being a high risk setup, but there is a reason why I’m not forecasting at SPC lol. I think the triple point and warm front is a solid moderate risk, but not a high risk. This is setting up well for a tornado cluster along the I40 corridor into the OKC area and just northeast of there. OKC better be on their toes this afternoon.
The boundary is sticking out like a sore thumb right now. It currently lies along a Reydon to Clinton to Binger to Amber line. It is slowly drifting north and should lay up right along the I40 corridor this afternoon.
The dryline is sharpening up over the east texas panhandle and should begin pushing east into Oklahoma with a triple point setting up around the Cheyenne to Clinton area this afternoon.
We are heading to El Reno now. Should be there in about 45 minutes. We’ll forecast from there before moving in. I’ll update again in a bit.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Holy...*R*(#($*@& (<-head hitting keyboard)

Let's see if my eyes aren't deceiving me?

N/S OFB sitting along TX PH area sharply delineated by a wind shift line (about 50 miles east of the N/S dryline). Sfc convergence looks absolutely beastly (surprised that there's no MCD for SW OK and areas about CDS). Tds are measured in the high 60s and pooling between the OFB and the jagged NW/SE-oriented warm front. Potent sfc low is going move east and WV already shows the jet stream has arrived to the PH areas. Wind profiler at Purcell shows a beautiful hodograph.

Easy pickings at this point: show me the first storm to reach LFC in that area and I'd track it until dawn. Virtual target remains Lawton, OK.

Can someone please work for me today? *mumbles to self*

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Just a reminder -- do NOT use these forecast threads to post status updates and small talk unless you are contributing new forecast details to the thread. The moderators deleted 4 posts on this page alone that were mostly just "i'm out the door, stay safe" type posts. You can post that in the DISC thread but not here.

Some people may not be clear on why we often allow non-relevant stuff to stand. We don't want things to be dry and stuffy in here and we consider it perfectly acceptable to spice up your forecast posts a little, for example Jason's comments above. It's when the meteorological detail is sketchy, trivial, or nonexistent, or contains too much nonrelevant content -- at that point the post violates the Target Area rules.

Thanks.

Tim

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I am at home today, so take it for what it's worth (likely none, to those chasing!) but I'm having trouble seeing the epic tornado outbreak unfolding today based on what I am seeing. I believe there is a chance of a tornado cluster if a supercell can root itself to the boundary near I-40. However, south of this boundary wind fields really are not all that favorable for significant tornadoes. North of the boundary where low level wind fields might favor a more prolific tornado show, instability is not really increasing as rapidly as previously predicted. I still think there is a decent shot at a tornado producer or two right on the boundary just north of I-40, but elsewhere I expect more of a line/cluster of severe thunderstorms with more of a large hail threat than significant tornadoes.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Surface data is indicating a theta-e max from around Duncan to El Reno, and this corresponds to an area of persistent enhanced Cu in that area. You can even trace it northward over the cold dome towards Medicine Lodge, where there is some different texture along this axis. West of there it looks like southwest Oklahoma is having problems with moisture getting mixed out, and it's probably not helping that Cu field out near Elk City.

Tim