5/13 FCST: OK/KS/TX

[Melissa Moon]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
I don't see how high instability can cause more storms to form. The number of storms that form is more due to the opposing combinations of forcing and capping. If there is too much forcing for the given cap strength, you'll get plenty 'o storms; if there isn't enough forcing for a given cap strength, you'll get a big 'o bust. In either case, you still need a source for surface convergence in order to initiate an updraft. There can be 10000 j/kg CAPE, but the balance between forcing and cap strength (or CIN I suppose) is what usually dictates surface-based convective coverage. For the example of high forcing, low capping, the degree of instability will just give you a clue about whether you'll have a line of showers or a raging bow echo. Likewise, for the too little forcing for the given cap strength, it doesn't matter if you have 100 j/kg CAPE or 5000 j/kg, because that surface parcel just isn't going reach the LFC. High CAPE will likely cause high updraft acceleration, but I don't see how the presence of strong instability will initiate new convection by itself...

P.S. -- Just remember, you don't need a decent cap to keep supercell discrete.... The May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma was characterized by only a weak cap...

Perhaps I should have reworded what I was trying to say earlier...I'm bad at picking the correct terminology to make my point, even if I know in my head what I am saying. What I was trying to say earlier is that we have (or had...I haven't looked at the latest runs) those great CAPEs progged over such a large area, and my fear is that the cap is not going to hold up well over a large area (kind of like a few weeks ago) and, as a result, everything will fire up at once rather than having a few supercells that can get a healthy moisture feed. You're right that it is still possible to get discreet supercells from a weak cap, and that could happen too.

I'll be the first to admit that there's a lot of stuff I still don't know that I am learning as time goes on, so forgive me if I say something stupid or inaccurate. But anyway, I don't know if this is something that should be worried about, since I haven't looked at the latest data/runs/etc. , but I hope that clarified what I meant when I made that statement yesterday.

 

[John Cameron]

This morning's forecasts suggest the best instability will be early to mid afternoon, while the best wind profiles will be late afternoon to early evening. There's no doubt were going to see an explosion of storms today, but if you're in it for tornadoes, timing will be absolutely essential. I could definately see the upgrade to MOD risk in SW Oklahoma down to hwy 380 in TX. Of course the front will tell.

My target area would be Snyder, Oklahoma

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I can't start until around 4:30 (work committments) so I might miss the best show. But my initial target is definately in and around the Lawton/Wichita Falls area. Maybe Snyder like John said. I see we are having a wave move through at 700mb over SW OK at 0z (maybe that runs is outdated now heh!) so as soon as I leave. I'm westbound for I-44 and points west. Should be a very good day in and around the triple point, so good luck, happy hunting and be safe everyone!

 

[Jay McCoy]

I am targeting Wichita Falls and am about to leave so I and Kanani can make it by 1pm so we wont miss initiation. I trhink if any tornadoes have a chance it will be early in the process before everything lines out on the front. Good luck to anybody down there.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Once again, SE Texas under the gun. Been a bad morning for folks in the Bryan area. Tornado watch until 2pm in this area.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Sorry, no now thread started.

2 tornadoes in North Bryan, 50 homes damaged and no injuries reported as of yet. Local breaking news.

 

[Rich Pena]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684 1020AM cst

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0684.html well here it starts: I bet we are heading into a North TX - into OKC chase...

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Jason Montano and I were thinking about heading down toward Lawton at about noon, but now after SPC's meso discussion, I am not sure if we really want to do that or stay around here. However, I like the SRH values of ~250 m2/s2 down at Wichita Falls as well as the CAPE ~3000. Not to mention it is much further ahead of the front. We shall see.....