5/13/2010 FCST: IN/IL/OH

[A Newcomb]

Thought this setup needed a thread started. Not much in this event in the way of chasing but there should at least be some good clusters of severe storms in the area tomorrow. Storms will probably be on going in the morning. Models showing CAPE reaching 2000-3000 j/kg tomorrow and LIs to near -8. The Euro takes the low farther north then the other models, taking the dynamics away from the Central Indiana area. I still think we should see at least a decent setup for pop-up severe storms with the fair amount of instability in the area.

 

[tom hanlon]

I will be chasing Either between Columbus and Indianapolis, or North West Ohio tomorrow.

There is some potential, but as I have learned.. Ohio is an interesting place.

The cold front seems likely to hold off until evening, and that is fine for me because I imagine a squall line mess from the front. So I would prefer is something can happen in the warm sector.

Plenty of moisture in place if we can get some heating and some sort of boundary we might get something in Ohio eastern Indiana. Western Indiana into IL seems a little better off in that they will get something, but probably not isolated and HP so I will stay close to home.

Extremely conditional but if I stay within 5 hours of home, then I can play it by ear.

The questions that only tomorrow will answer.
What boundaries do we have and where are they, do we have any outflow boundaries to add to the mix ?

What upper level clearing do we have so that we can get some daytime heating? This will be key.

If there is action in Northwest Ohio and the storm motion is West to East, then we often get some interaction with the Lake Breeze off of Lake Erie, about 50 miles inland. Historically depending on storm motion storms can get a brief boost as they cross the boundary, or they can ride along it and get a continued boost.

--
Tom

 

[Matt Hunt]

Judging from the 00z NAM, it looks like the best chance will be in the evening hours, though the better CAPE is in the middle afternoon (at least here in central IN). Either way, there is still fairly sufficient CAPE in the evening, and if we can get adequate clearing, daytime heating should fire up some cells ahead of the front. I will be staying at home, and chasing anything that fires close by Indy. Can't go too far, because I have a meeting at 7:30. Would like to at least see some decent hail out of this storm... I need it for my business!

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Going to be watching the Warm front this morning move Northward towards the MI/IN border area. (Perhaps as far North as I-94 in Michigan.) If we can get some heating close to the Warm front today there might be a play although this setup looks less enticing than the one in the same area last Friday. Last couple of frames of the SAT loop give me at least some hope of clearing later. NW Ohio or a long shot in the Southern row or two in Michigan are potential targets. Will make a final decision early afternoon.

 

[Dave Gore]

Latest convective outlook has a 10% for tornadoes across much of the same area as last Friday. Difference being that there is better moisture to work with today, so storms should be more surface based. Shear looks really good and capes are already pushing into the 2500 range in central Indiana and western Ohio. If storms can fire ahead of the cold front, things will get interesting for sure.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Just some high clouds exist. Sure did warm up today and dewpoints are very favorable. One thing that catches my eye with just a quick glimpse at things are the storm movements. These bad boys will be flying again. I haven't looked to much into this as we just got back from chasing yesterday in KS and will probably sit this one out. Especially after seeing the movements yesterday near Kansas City/Topeka late in the evening. Fast storms = no fun.

Chip

 

[John Vandehei]

Going to be watching the Warm front this morning move Northward towards the MI/IN border area. (Perhaps as far North as I-94 in Michigan.) If we can get some heating close to the Warm front today there might be a play although this setup looks less enticing than the one in the same area last Friday. Last couple of frames of the SAT loop give me at least some hope of clearing later. NW Ohio or a long shot in the Southern row or two in Michigan are potential targets. Will make a final decision early afternoon

.
I'm watching that clearing too. However, I don't think it will be in time to produce anything in my neck of the woods. Judging by the way things are evolving, if anything severe does occur in Michigan, it will be in Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties (far SE Michigan). Otherwise Indiana (east of I-69) and Ohio look good.

 

[Jon Miller]

Here in west central Ohio , it’s currently 78F ,mostly sunny and very muggy with the sfc dew points near 71F.

The 17z SPC Meso Analysis was showing a slot from n. central Indiana diagonally down to sw Ohio with the following : sbcape 2000-3000 j/kg , LI = -4 to -5 , 700 temps = 6 to 7C, 0-1 Shear from 25 to 45 kts , 0-1 srh from 150 to 400m2/s2, LCL from 750 to 1000m, STP = 3, SCP = 8 , 0-1 ehi = 3.
The warm front i over n. central Indiana now and at 2:30 PM the cumulus field is starting to develop and initiation is expected locally for around the 4 to 5 pm time period . This will be a near “backyardâ€￾ chase for me. Good luck and be careful to other fellow chasers.

Jon Miller
KT8ndo

 

[Matt Hunt]

Looks to me like the cold front has been almost stalled along the IL/IA border all day, and is just now beginning to trek east toward Peoria. The initial line in southern IN formed along the outflow boundary, but did not intensify, and has since fizzled out. The cold front is currently in more stable air in Illinois, so nothing is happening attm. If that front can advance into the unstable air before dark, we may get a few cells or bow echo with damaging winds, but other than that, I don't really see anything to initiate any more storms in the area. There is one cell currently south of Columbus, OH, but we'll see if it can intensify. I really think that cold front is needed to really initiate a line of storms. Looks like a bust.

 

[Dave Gore]

Yep, the cap wins again......