Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I would we wary of those who are simply jumping on board with the NAM based on one run. I'm not sure how the NAM can have a "better handle than the GFS" when you've literally only seen one run from that specific model. Meanwhile the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty darned consistent with their placement of surface features and the upper level system. I'd still tend to lean towards the slightly quicker positioning of the GFS and euro, and am pretty convinced that we will be seeing a sweet spot right in south central Kansas. While the GFS is known to have a fast bias, the NAM lately has had a slow bias in my opinion. This has been shown with the Wednesday - Friday timing of this current system in the midwest. Had the NAM verified we would have been looking at several days of tornadoes in Iowa and Illinois, but in turn had a much quicker streak and are now left with racers in Ohio on Friday only which the GFS nailed well in advance.
On that note, the 18z NAM is already faster than the 12z NAM, and while not completely in agreement, is trending towards the GFS.
Not a lot to add detail wise as most have already hashed out through the obvious issues which is all one can really nail down at this point, but I wanted to add my two cents in on being very wary of believing the NAM immediately before even seeing two runs to see if it has any idea at all of what to do with the system, which it already appears to not be capable of.
At this point I'll take a compromise, but leaning towards the GFS. As H said, the cold air usually plays in in some form of another. That cold air is like molasses, and will really try and keep a lid on northward movement, but I'd think getting north to around Pratt is not unreasonable. That continues to be my area to watch or 84 hour out target city. Think we'll be seeing the dryline set up about 75 miles west of the I-35 corridor from Pratt, Kansas south with a hot zone for a couple tornadoes in south central Kansas and even into Oklahoma should the cap be breached. Seems there is always a beast down there near the Red River.
On that note, the 18z NAM is already faster than the 12z NAM, and while not completely in agreement, is trending towards the GFS.
Not a lot to add detail wise as most have already hashed out through the obvious issues which is all one can really nail down at this point, but I wanted to add my two cents in on being very wary of believing the NAM immediately before even seeing two runs to see if it has any idea at all of what to do with the system, which it already appears to not be capable of.
At this point I'll take a compromise, but leaning towards the GFS. As H said, the cold air usually plays in in some form of another. That cold air is like molasses, and will really try and keep a lid on northward movement, but I'd think getting north to around Pratt is not unreasonable. That continues to be my area to watch or 84 hour out target city. Think we'll be seeing the dryline set up about 75 miles west of the I-35 corridor from Pratt, Kansas south with a hot zone for a couple tornadoes in south central Kansas and even into Oklahoma should the cap be breached. Seems there is always a beast down there near the Red River.